Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

Residents from both sides returning to their homes already

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[Mehdipersian]

Tonight then is best time to hit them.

No one with any sort of brain thought that Israel was going to take “half of Lebanon” with the force they amassed at the border. Maybe Zionist fanboys, but a rational individual? Not a chance. The force was too small and south Lebanon’s is mountainous region. Just look at the topography, that’s a nightmare for invading force.

It is taught in military academy that the defending force has as much 3:1 or 4:1 advantage on the invading force. This is what Russia disregarded and you see the result in Ukraine: a brutal attrition. Meanwhile when U.S. army tried to take Fallujah they used a 3 to 1 advantage plus air power, because they understood basic military strategy.

So if HZ even used its manpower (~50,000) it would require an Israel expeditionary force of nearly 200K soldiers. Completely unacceptable in this political climate.

Both sides made mistakes and both sides took some blows. But at the end of the day HZ underestimated the deterrence it THOUGHT it had (no senior leadership being targeted especially Nasrallah and no Beruit).

It had 10x the weaponary it had in 2006, but rarely put any of it to use and relied mostly on ATGMs and small drones alongside their usual unguided rocket inventory. Very few BMs or CMs were used. No major AD missiles that contest the skies of Lebanon, but they got a decent amount of Hermes drones which will likely be transferred to Iran for reverse engineering. Although hard to see what value for Iran in this day and age, maybe electronics or engine insights.

The main question is what happens to Gaza now that there is no daily aerial attacks by HZ to put pressure on Israeli leadership. Less incentive for them to comprise or listen to their own population.

170,000 Israeli soldiers entered the ground war with Hezbollah

 

[That_Guy]

No one with any sort of brain thought that Israel was going to take “half of Lebanon” with the force they amassed at the border. Maybe Zionist fanboys, but a rational individual? Not a chance. The force was too small and south Lebanon’s is mountainous region. Just look at the topography, that’s a nightmare for invading force.

It is taught in military academy that the defending force has as much 3:1 or 4:1 advantage on the invading force. This is what Russia disregarded and you see the result in Ukraine: a brutal attrition. Meanwhile when U.S. army tried to take Fallujah they used a 3 to 1 advantage plus air power, because they understood basic military strategy.

So if HZ even used its manpower (~50,000) it would require an Israel expeditionary force of nearly 200K soldiers. Completely unacceptable in this political climate.

Both sides made mistakes and both sides took some blows. But at the end of the day HZ underestimated the deterrence it THOUGHT it had (no senior leadership being targeted especially Nasrallah and no Beruit).

It had 10x the weaponary it had in 2006, but rarely put any of it to use and relied mostly on ATGMs and small drones alongside their usual unguided rocket inventory. Very few BMs or CMs were used. No major AD missiles that contest the skies of Lebanon, but they got a decent amount of Hermes drones which will likely be transferred to Iran for reverse engineering. Although hard to see what value for Iran in this day and age, maybe electronics or engine insights.

The main question is what happens to Gaza now that there is no daily aerial attacks by HZ to put pressure on Israeli leadership. Less incentive for them to comprise or listen to their own population.

Israel sent nearly twice the numbers than it did in 2006, and had a far bigger tech gap. Though, Hezbullah's missile arsenal is 10 to 50 times bigger than 2006.

Having said that, i do agree that it was mostly morons or overconfident analysts that said Israel would win.

 

[vmro]

No one with any sort of brain thought that Israel was going to take “half of Lebanon” with the force they amassed at the border. Maybe Zionist fanboys, but a rational individual? Not a chance. The force was too small and south Lebanon’s is mountainous region. Just look at the topography, that’s a nightmare for invading force.

It is taught in military academy that the defending force has as much 3:1 or 4:1 advantage on the invading force. This is what Russia disregarded and you see the result in Ukraine: a brutal attrition. Meanwhile when U.S. army tried to take Fallujah they used a 3 to 1 advantage plus air power, because they understood basic military strategy.

So if HZ even used its manpower (~50,000) it would require an Israel expeditionary force of nearly 200K soldiers. Completely unacceptable in this political climate.

Both sides made mistakes and both sides took some blows. But at the end of the day HZ underestimated the deterrence it THOUGHT it had (no senior leadership being targeted especially Nasrallah and no Beruit).

It had 10x the weaponary it had in 2006, but rarely put any of it to use and relied mostly on ATGMs and small drones alongside their usual unguided rocket inventory. Very few BMs or CMs were used. No major AD missiles that contest the skies of Lebanon, but they got a decent amount of Hermes drones which will likely be transferred to Iran for reverse engineering. Although hard to see what value for Iran in this day and age, maybe electronics or engine insights.

The main question is what happens to Gaza now that there is no daily aerial attacks by HZ to put pressure on Israeli leadership. Less incentive for them to comprise or listen to their own population.

Several mistakes imho, little unexpected, you are great writer here..

Israel don't intended to take entire Lebanon, just part they already had once, Litani river...much more important is river itself than security zone...that's why being on Litani instead on borders strategically is not so big compromise for Hezbollah...

Same topography has Hezbollah as well as PLO...And idf running took Beirut and defeat Fatah, in fight that looked like boxer vs small kid...

Topography can't be alibi for idf inability to get full control of 5-10 km from borders in asymmetric conflict...Ukraine and Russia are giants in area, for Russia is not problem to retreat 1000km from borders, and to prepare strike back...or 200-300 for Ukraine...

Hezbollah can't liberate all Arabian states, they can divide idf concentration, to help Hamas, but not to liberate Palestine...they did everything they can...and Syria is more important for them than Palestine...

Enemy's main success was not from idf, but from mossad, major blow was operation by intelligence services...you have most powerful secret services and usa support vs militia, is very hard to avoid casualties ..

Most important for Hezbollah is actual, last deterrence, with massive attacks on Tel Aviv, new momentum and historical success, new reality...bibi would never agree to deal without that....

Yes, Israel started furiously, already celebrated victory...and now frustration is much bigger because of that lost hope...


And almost forgot... F..k U Israel ....

 

[StrategicBear]

Hezbollah being able to stop an Israeli invasion was always a no-brainer...

Modern Anti-Tanks weapons such as the Almas and FPV drones can literally make manned tanks and armored vehicles obsolete, so this is why Israel failed!

Because it is easier to hide, conceal, resupply and produce Anti-Tank weapons than Ballistic Missiles, so the advantage will always be on the guerilla's side.

 

[LongLiveIran]

When is Jewish New Year??? As far as I know, they already celebrated on 2th or 4th of October ....

I'm talking about the Christian New Year. A lot of Westerners will be in Israel for holidays. But then again, it's not that important. As long as we launch TP 3, I'm happy.

 

[StrategicBear]

TP3 should target Israel's military industries more, and also the THAAD radars and SAMs.

 

[UKBengali]

TP3 should target Israel's military industries more, and also the THAAD radars and SAMs.

Best to keep US out of this.

Target purely Zionist ABM radars and one or two military factories,

 

[muhammed45]

It's so weird because at first reading this the reaction is to roll your eyes but that only last for a couple seconds when you realize that Iran has backed up their bluster.

I reckon middle of December they'll take action?

How about a hello party for yellow Trumpet?

 

[Flotilla]

Israel sent nearly twice the numbers than it did in 2006, and had a far bigger tech gap. Though, Hezbullah's missile arsenal is 10 to 50 times bigger than 2006.

Having said that, i do agree that it was mostly morons or overconfident analysts that said Israel would win.

But probably that arsenal was decimated during air campaign (no ASCM Noor was used against israeli Navy, actively engaged in the coast, as a hint of material looses). Anyway I agree with you that none of the IDF objectives were already reached. So It is a strategical defeat again. Bravo Zulu Hizbollah!!!

 

[OldTwilight]

Well, Due widespread economical curroption and low wages and great injustice against Iranians by the capitalists regime ( so called I.R.i ) , the regime can not start a major conflict or else it will collapse from within.

hell, even if they don't start major conflict , they will fall in next year unless they rationalize wages and make economy better.

 

[tsunset]

Well, Due widespread economical curroption and low wages and great injustice against Iranians by the capitalists regime ( so called I.R.i ) , the regime can not start a major conflict or else it will collapse from within.

hell, even if they don't start major conflict , they will fall in next year unless they rationalize wages and make economy better.

Nice projection of Israel into Iran

 

[vmro]

Hezbollah being able to stop an Israeli invasion was always a no-brainer...

Modern Anti-Tanks weapons such as the Almas and FPV drones can literally make manned tanks and armored vehicles obsolete, so this is why Israel failed!

Because it is easier to hide, conceal, resupply and produce Anti-Tank weapons than Ballistic Missiles, so the advantage will always be on the guerilla's side.

Fatah and Hamas were armed OK for guerrilla groups...PLO was extremely easy defeted in Lebanon...idf just went through borders in Beirut...

"The secret" of Hezbollah is organizational skills, from the very beginning, unlike Palestinian resistance for example... All other military groups around Israel are ruined by Israeli intelligence services...

I am sure that Lebanese state's army has anti-tank weapons, they are based on the same area, and still, they are inferior...

 

[vmro]

Well, Due widespread economical curroption and low wages and great injustice against Iranians by the capitalists regime ( so called I.R.i ) , the regime can not start a major conflict or else it will collapse from within.

hell, even if they don't start major conflict , they will fall in next year unless they rationalize wages and make economy better.

Yes, but this same issue is accurate for probably all countries globally, usa can't start major conflict without rational planning....

I.R.I are now capitalists? That means that at least indirectly are globalists, and zionists are on the top of the
globalism... now is clear, Mossad is behind I.R.I ...this conspiracy is so skilled and complex that is not very clear which kind of entities are behind it, probably not the human homo sapiens...

 

[OldTwilight]

Nice projection of Israel into Iran

well , Im here from start of 2010s ( actually 2008 or 2009) ...
We already experienced this kind of situation in the end of The Sassanid and Safavid and the result wasn't good for us ...

You cannot wage war when the average wage of your worker class only can buy 10 killos sheep meat ...

Im realistic , I was in military.ir , one of the admin was closing all the topics so I cannot post ( and he almost delete half of my posts as well ) , I decided to stop doing activity there so other people could post ...

Its more than 10 years that I warned our people if any major war happen , we cannot win and without a modern sustainable economy , armed force , and international allies , we need nukes to at least level some equations ...

The nukes are just for stopping our enemies to invade our soils and guarrantee the mutual destruction ...

By mocking likes of me , labeling us as traitors , you can not change the reality ...

Im just warning ourselves , by this kind of injustice against working class by I.R.I , Iran will enter a period of anarchy and instability in next summer ....