Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[That_Guy]

It's better to ask, what did Lebanon lose? Killing of Arabs is a goal within itself for "Israel."

Removing emotions, and making a strictly neutral assessment that removes the humanity of the situation: man and material, both of which can be replaced. Lebanon is a growing population, with a birth rate of 2.08% (yr.2022), above replacement rate. End of wars tend to lead to birth rate booms. Infrastructure, and defense systems can be replaced as well, Lebanon did it before, it can do it again. Israel, on the other hand, seems to be suffering from major shortages, and with Gaza still a major conflict point for them, as well as attacks Syria, it's recovery is in question. Israel economy is in tatters, while Lebanon barely had an economy to begin with; Israel's not going to recover economically, while Lebanon has nowhere to go but up.

Morale wise, Lebanon thwarted a major Israeli invasion, one the world expected that Israel would steamroll over Hezbullah and take half of Lebanon. Hezbullah repelled the invasion with only a fraction of its man power, and got the IDF stuck at the border, unable to take and hold even a single village. Israel, on the other hand, is suffering from Morale issues, and this ceasefire isn't gonna solve the problem. 2 million Israelis have fled the country, and a huge chunk are unlikely to come back. IDF soldiers are increasingly refusing to fight. The northern settlers are both anxious and angry at this deal, because they know (and they've said as much) that it's not the end of the conflict and merely a pause; eventually they'll have to flee again.

There's plenty more, but I don't have much time nor the patience currently to write it out.

This was a major blow to Israel, and proved it's nothing more than a paper tiger. It's regional superpower status is completely undeserved.

 

[SolarWarden]

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It's so weird because at first reading this the reaction is to roll your eyes but that only last for a couple seconds when you realize that Iran has backed up their bluster.

I reckon middle of December they'll take action?

 

[Immortals]

Morale wise, Lebanon thwarted a major Israeli invasion, one the world expected that Israel would steamroll over Hezbullah and take half of Lebanon.

No one with any sort of brain thought that Israel was going to take “half of Lebanon” with the force they amassed at the border. Maybe Zionist fanboys, but a rational individual? Not a chance. The force was too small and south Lebanon’s is mountainous region. Just look at the topography, that’s a nightmare for invading force.

It is taught in military academy that the defending force has as much 3:1 or 4:1 advantage on the invading force. This is what Russia disregarded and you see the result in Ukraine: a brutal attrition. Meanwhile when U.S. army tried to take Fallujah they used a 3 to 1 advantage plus air power, because they understood basic military strategy.

So if HZ even used its manpower (~50,000) it would require an Israel expeditionary force of nearly 200K soldiers. Completely unacceptable in this political climate.

Both sides made mistakes and both sides took some blows. But at the end of the day HZ underestimated the deterrence it THOUGHT it had (no senior leadership being targeted especially Nasrallah and no Beruit).

It had 10x the weaponary it had in 2006, but rarely put any of it to use and relied mostly on ATGMs and small drones alongside their usual unguided rocket inventory. Very few BMs or CMs were used. No major AD missiles that contest the skies of Lebanon, but they got a decent amount of Hermes drones which will likely be transferred to Iran for reverse engineering. Although hard to see what value for Iran in this day and age, maybe electronics or engine insights.

The main question is what happens to Gaza now that there is no daily aerial attacks by HZ to put pressure on Israeli leadership. Less incentive for them to comprise or listen to their own population.

 

[Immortals]

Residents from both sides returning to their homes already

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[Mehdipersian]

Tonight then is best time to hit them.

No one with any sort of brain thought that Israel was going to take “half of Lebanon” with the force they amassed at the border. Maybe Zionist fanboys, but a rational individual? Not a chance. The force was too small and south Lebanon’s is mountainous region. Just look at the topography, that’s a nightmare for invading force.

It is taught in military academy that the defending force has as much 3:1 or 4:1 advantage on the invading force. This is what Russia disregarded and you see the result in Ukraine: a brutal attrition. Meanwhile when U.S. army tried to take Fallujah they used a 3 to 1 advantage plus air power, because they understood basic military strategy.

So if HZ even used its manpower (~50,000) it would require an Israel expeditionary force of nearly 200K soldiers. Completely unacceptable in this political climate.

Both sides made mistakes and both sides took some blows. But at the end of the day HZ underestimated the deterrence it THOUGHT it had (no senior leadership being targeted especially Nasrallah and no Beruit).

It had 10x the weaponary it had in 2006, but rarely put any of it to use and relied mostly on ATGMs and small drones alongside their usual unguided rocket inventory. Very few BMs or CMs were used. No major AD missiles that contest the skies of Lebanon, but they got a decent amount of Hermes drones which will likely be transferred to Iran for reverse engineering. Although hard to see what value for Iran in this day and age, maybe electronics or engine insights.

The main question is what happens to Gaza now that there is no daily aerial attacks by HZ to put pressure on Israeli leadership. Less incentive for them to comprise or listen to their own population.

170,000 Israeli soldiers entered the ground war with Hezbollah

 

[That_Guy]

No one with any sort of brain thought that Israel was going to take “half of Lebanon” with the force they amassed at the border. Maybe Zionist fanboys, but a rational individual? Not a chance. The force was too small and south Lebanon’s is mountainous region. Just look at the topography, that’s a nightmare for invading force.

It is taught in military academy that the defending force has as much 3:1 or 4:1 advantage on the invading force. This is what Russia disregarded and you see the result in Ukraine: a brutal attrition. Meanwhile when U.S. army tried to take Fallujah they used a 3 to 1 advantage plus air power, because they understood basic military strategy.

So if HZ even used its manpower (~50,000) it would require an Israel expeditionary force of nearly 200K soldiers. Completely unacceptable in this political climate.

Both sides made mistakes and both sides took some blows. But at the end of the day HZ underestimated the deterrence it THOUGHT it had (no senior leadership being targeted especially Nasrallah and no Beruit).

It had 10x the weaponary it had in 2006, but rarely put any of it to use and relied mostly on ATGMs and small drones alongside their usual unguided rocket inventory. Very few BMs or CMs were used. No major AD missiles that contest the skies of Lebanon, but they got a decent amount of Hermes drones which will likely be transferred to Iran for reverse engineering. Although hard to see what value for Iran in this day and age, maybe electronics or engine insights.

The main question is what happens to Gaza now that there is no daily aerial attacks by HZ to put pressure on Israeli leadership. Less incentive for them to comprise or listen to their own population.

Israel sent nearly twice the numbers than it did in 2006, and had a far bigger tech gap. Though, Hezbullah's missile arsenal is 10 to 50 times bigger than 2006.

Having said that, i do agree that it was mostly morons or overconfident analysts that said Israel would win.

 

[vmro]

No one with any sort of brain thought that Israel was going to take “half of Lebanon” with the force they amassed at the border. Maybe Zionist fanboys, but a rational individual? Not a chance. The force was too small and south Lebanon’s is mountainous region. Just look at the topography, that’s a nightmare for invading force.

It is taught in military academy that the defending force has as much 3:1 or 4:1 advantage on the invading force. This is what Russia disregarded and you see the result in Ukraine: a brutal attrition. Meanwhile when U.S. army tried to take Fallujah they used a 3 to 1 advantage plus air power, because they understood basic military strategy.

So if HZ even used its manpower (~50,000) it would require an Israel expeditionary force of nearly 200K soldiers. Completely unacceptable in this political climate.

Both sides made mistakes and both sides took some blows. But at the end of the day HZ underestimated the deterrence it THOUGHT it had (no senior leadership being targeted especially Nasrallah and no Beruit).

It had 10x the weaponary it had in 2006, but rarely put any of it to use and relied mostly on ATGMs and small drones alongside their usual unguided rocket inventory. Very few BMs or CMs were used. No major AD missiles that contest the skies of Lebanon, but they got a decent amount of Hermes drones which will likely be transferred to Iran for reverse engineering. Although hard to see what value for Iran in this day and age, maybe electronics or engine insights.

The main question is what happens to Gaza now that there is no daily aerial attacks by HZ to put pressure on Israeli leadership. Less incentive for them to comprise or listen to their own population.

Several mistakes imho, little unexpected, you are great writer here..

Israel don't intended to take entire Lebanon, just part they already had once, Litani river...much more important is river itself than security zone...that's why being on Litani instead on borders strategically is not so big compromise for Hezbollah...

Same topography has Hezbollah as well as PLO...And idf running took Beirut and defeat Fatah, in fight that looked like boxer vs small kid...

Topography can't be alibi for idf inability to get full control of 5-10 km from borders in asymmetric conflict...Ukraine and Russia are giants in area, for Russia is not problem to retreat 1000km from borders, and to prepare strike back...or 200-300 for Ukraine...

Hezbollah can't liberate all Arabian states, they can divide idf concentration, to help Hamas, but not to liberate Palestine...they did everything they can...and Syria is more important for them than Palestine...

Enemy's main success was not from idf, but from mossad, major blow was operation by intelligence services...you have most powerful secret services and usa support vs militia, is very hard to avoid casualties ..

Most important for Hezbollah is actual, last deterrence, with massive attacks on Tel Aviv, new momentum and historical success, new reality...bibi would never agree to deal without that....

Yes, Israel started furiously, already celebrated victory...and now frustration is much bigger because of that lost hope...


And almost forgot... F..k U Israel ....

 

[StrategicBear]

Hezbollah being able to stop an Israeli invasion was always a no-brainer...

Modern Anti-Tanks weapons such as the Almas and FPV drones can literally make manned tanks and armored vehicles obsolete, so this is why Israel failed!

Because it is easier to hide, conceal, resupply and produce Anti-Tank weapons than Ballistic Missiles, so the advantage will always be on the guerilla's side.

 

[LongLiveIran]

When is Jewish New Year??? As far as I know, they already celebrated on 2th or 4th of October ....

I'm talking about the Christian New Year. A lot of Westerners will be in Israel for holidays. But then again, it's not that important. As long as we launch TP 3, I'm happy.

 

[StrategicBear]

TP3 should target Israel's military industries more, and also the THAAD radars and SAMs.

 

[UKBengali]

TP3 should target Israel's military industries more, and also the THAAD radars and SAMs.

Best to keep US out of this.

Target purely Zionist ABM radars and one or two military factories,

 

[muhammed45]

It's so weird because at first reading this the reaction is to roll your eyes but that only last for a couple seconds when you realize that Iran has backed up their bluster.

I reckon middle of December they'll take action?

How about a hello party for yellow Trumpet?

 

[Flotilla]

Israel sent nearly twice the numbers than it did in 2006, and had a far bigger tech gap. Though, Hezbullah's missile arsenal is 10 to 50 times bigger than 2006.

Having said that, i do agree that it was mostly morons or overconfident analysts that said Israel would win.

But probably that arsenal was decimated during air campaign (no ASCM Noor was used against israeli Navy, actively engaged in the coast, as a hint of material looses). Anyway I agree with you that none of the IDF objectives were already reached. So It is a strategical defeat again. Bravo Zulu Hizbollah!!!

 

[OldTwilight]

Well, Due widespread economical curroption and low wages and great injustice against Iranians by the capitalists regime ( so called I.R.i ) , the regime can not start a major conflict or else it will collapse from within.

hell, even if they don't start major conflict , they will fall in next year unless they rationalize wages and make economy better.

 

[tsunset]

Well, Due widespread economical curroption and low wages and great injustice against Iranians by the capitalists regime ( so called I.R.i ) , the regime can not start a major conflict or else it will collapse from within.

hell, even if they don't start major conflict , they will fall in next year unless they rationalize wages and make economy better.

Nice projection of Israel into Iran