Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Mehdipersian]

47 Iranian ballistic missiles hit the Navatim base in TP2

 

[Ali_Baba]

47 Iranian ballistic missiles hit the Navatim base in TP2
View attachment 121901

And only 1 runway was put out of operation, that is the design advantage of such a design for an airbase. ie multi-runway.

 

[vmro]

Israel attacked Iran in 2024 and produced effects they desired. Therefore, operational realities of one region may not be a good predictor of the operational realities in another region.

What desire??? At least for Ben Gvir effects were "lame", so he would disagree with you about defining his personal desires....

 

[hyperman]

Good on Iran to stick to its guns, do not under any circumstances give up latent capacity, once they remove that deterrent, then they will attack.

 

[vmro]

So, who is lying?

I doubt it's Iran because it would be too big if they lie about that, they repeated hundreds of times on national TV, international TV and medias that there will still be enrichment and that they will never accept 0 enrichment, and they didn't made any contradictory statements since the beginning of the negotiations

On US side, Witkoff said on TV and medias that they seek a 3.67% enrichment, then made a turn saying that the "red line" is 0 enrichment, to then say once again that they seek reduced enrichment

I have no idea what the US is plotting there or what is the point of these contradictions, this is maybe to save face or reassure Israel, but they will have to make a choice at the end

Yes, frustrating confusion, only if this Witkoff interpretation is excluding "legally" enrichment aka international consortium, but that is Iranian proposal for decades...

 

[Persian Gulf]

Witkoff again went on television and claimed the US's demand is for ZERO enrichment in Iran

Araghchi quickly responded on Twitter saying that is never going to happen and Iran will continue to enrich with or without a deal (telling Witkoff to stop trying to appease Israel and be reasonable or get fucked)

So now the negotiations are in big trouble because Iran will never compromise on its right to enrich inside Iran

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Persian Gulf]

In addressing the talks regarding Iran's peaceful nuclear program, our U.S. interlocutors are naturally free to publicly state whatever they deem fit to ward off Special Interest groups; malign actors which set the agendas of at least previous Administrations.

Iran can only control what we Iranians do, and that is to avoid negotiating in public—particularly given the current dissonance we are seeing between what our U.S. interlocutors say in public and in private, and from one week to the other.

Our stance on Iran's rights as a NPT member is crystal clear, and there is no scenario in which Iranians will permit deviance from that. Mastering enrichment technology is a hard-earned and homegrown scientific achievement; an outcome of great sacrifice of both blood and treasure.

If the U.S. is interested in ensuring that Iran will not have nuclear weapons, a deal is within reach, and we are ready for a serious conversation to achieve a solution that will forever ensure that outcome. Enrichment in Iran, however, will continue with or without a deal.

 

[Falcon29]

Realistically, to what extent can Iran damage Israel? Their missile program is meant to develop nuclear capable missiles in the long term. Not for conventional punch. There's no way they have tens of thousands long range missiles to reach Israel.

A US attack on Iran would only be for nuclear program, to bring it back several years.

A US attack on Iranian regime/military capabilities won't happen. It will benefit Gulf Arabs only and Gulf Arabs will buy less weapons from the US in that case. And it helps normalization process with Israel. US will thus not do regime change in Iran.

It's likely Iran will agree to zero enrichment or won't and US just places more sanctions. In very rare scenario will they attack nuclear program. Because Zionists that rule US don't want a distraction from their Gaza ethnic cleansing project, right now.

 

[Persian Gulf]

There's no way they have tens of thousands long range missiles to reach Israel.

Way.

It's likely Iran will agree to zero enrichment

No way.

 

[Falcon29]

I don't even believe in Iran will respond in a big way to a attack on its nuclear program.

It lacks the capability. Hezbollah was a big wild card to to be used against Israel. Hezbollah's condition is unknown. It's possible Iran has preserved their firepower throughout the Gaza situation and it would be unleashed in a the event of a extensive and wide scale attack on Iran nuclear program, government, and military apparatus.

I don't see US attacking Iran at all. Because it's a convenient excuse for Gulf Arabs to pursue normalization with Israel. And US blackmails Arabs with Iran boogeyman. Which is more important to Israel than striking Iranian nuclear sites which are already under inspection and observation.

 

[Persian Gulf]

I don't see US attacking Iran at all.

Most of us agree, especially after their failures in Yemen.

 

[Falcon29]

Way.

Are you counting drones and cruise missiles ? I'm only referring to ballistic missiles that can reach Israel from Iran.

I did look at some figures from Russia-Ukraine war. At the time this article was written, Ukraine claims Russia fired 3700 Shahed drones which are provided by Iran or Iran gave know how and created production facilities to produce these drones.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-has-fired-7400-missiles-3700-shahed-drones-war-so-far-kyiv-says-2023-12-21/

That is a impressive number. Iran helped Russia in late 2022 to prepare manufacturing facility to produce 6,000 of them by 2025.

Makes me wonder how many can Iran produce. And how many it has been producing already.

Though that is drones and not long range ballistic missiles. I'll try finding some info on that.

No way.

Let's see. I don't see it either. And I don't see US resorting to some immediate military action.

 

[Falcon29]

I'm curious what Iran gets back from Russia. Unless it's money as a military sale. Western media doesn't classify them as sales.

From looks of it, Iran is providing batches of hundreds of short range bm's to Russia at a time. Probably 3-4 batches from 2023-2025. It can produce tens of thousands of these likely.

Which means US estimate of long range ballistic missiles in the thousands is probably accurate.

 

[Falcon29]

Next round of talks are slated for next week

There's no deadline contrary to initial US rhetoric

If they don't anywhere, US will try new methods to enforce sanctions on Iran oil sales.

Which won't change anything. Imo, US won't strike Iran. It benefits mostly from the Iranian-Gulf Arab feud and wants that to continue. Both Iran and Gulf Arabs suffer from the feud. But Iran does better navigating through it. Gulf Arabs are stunting themselves and not evolving well. Their recent victories have been ceasefire in Yemen, Ansarallah developing into a anti-Israel force, and the most obvious one being Syria. Depending if they can solidify gains in Syria in the long term. Which is yet to be seen. Promises of removing sanctions haven't translated into real lifting of sanctions yet. Which would be announced by US Department of Treasury.