What is Israel’s calculus here?
Is it simply to take out Iran's nuclear facilities and damage its missile factories? That may be achievable — but at an unknown cost. So far, Iran has only used about 6% of its ballistic missile arsenal: roughly 200 out of an estimated 3,000 missiles, with approximately 25 successful hits. ( alteast two of them hitting HVTs ).
If Iran were to use 100% of its missile arsenal and Israel maintains its current interception rate of 88%, that would result in about 360 successful hits. This would cause significant damage, but it’s unlikely to deter Israel from continuing the conflict.
However, if interception effectiveness declines over time — say, to 60% — then around 40% of the missiles would get through. That means 1,200 hits, which would be far more devastating.
Historically, Israeli security doctrine has tolerated short-term suffering in pursuit of long-term strategic dominance.