Scientific analysis of what we witnessed at dawn today, where Israel was hit by a hypersonic missile , marking Iran's first use of such a weapon. However, it is not the globally recognized hypersonic type like China's DF-ZF, but rather a quasi-hypersonic missile scientifically termed Quasi-HGV. It operates at speeds between 5 to 6 Mach during the terminal dive phase but without actual maneuvering, unlike true hypersonic missiles such as China's DF-ZF or Russia's Zircon.
But what is Israel's capability in intercepting quasi-hypersonic missiles like Fattah 1 and 2?
What defensive systems does Israel have to intercept quasi-hypersonic missiles?
It has two systems capable of countering them, as follows:
David’s Sling: An air defense system developed and integrated into their defense network alongside the Patriot PAC-3 MSE system. It is distinguished by three features: high interception speed reaching up to 7 Mach, triple guidance with three seekers (active radar, infrared (IR), and electro-optical (CCD)), and high maneuverability, allowing it to engage quasi-hypersonic missiles.
THAAD: It also has the capability to intercept quasi-hypersonic missiles due to its high speed, reaching up to 8 Mach, and maneuverability enabled by the Hit-To-Kill system, which allows the projectile to maneuver and collide with the target. It also has the ability to target in the upper atmosphere (Exosphere), but this is contingent on early detection and precise discrimination among targets. However, it is clear they failed to distinguish it entirely.
Arrow 2/3:It is ineffective against quasi-hypersonic ballistic systems because it was designed to target conventional ballistic missiles with fixed, non-maneuvering trajectories.
Most likely, the Iranians used the Fattah 2 missile, which, according to available data, ascends to the stratosphere, making it undetectable by radar from the moment of launch, unlike the TPY-2 radar associated with the THAAD system, which can track but still suffers from the missile's maneuverability, rendering it ineffective against quasi-hypersonic missiles.
Summary: Israel possesses systems like David’s Sling and THAAD capable of countering quasi-hypersonic missiles like Fattah-2, thanks to their high speed and maneuverability. However, successful interception depends on early detection and precise discrimination, especially since such missiles fly at low, maneuvering trajectories. As for the Arrow 2/3 system, it is not the optimal choice, as it is designed for ballistic missiles with fixed, non-maneuvering trajectories. Therefore, Israel was unable to intercept it because they failed to meet the conditions mentioned.