Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
Pakistani Dragon
Elite Member
Ma'sha'Allah. Good work Iran.
May Allah keep granting you victories and dominance over Zion until it is crushed.
May Allah keep granting you victories and dominance over Zion until it is crushed.
Kyussis
Trusted Member
How many bases do we have? haw many entrances does each base have? How many B-2s are in service in the USAF? How many GBU-57s have been produced till today?
ShapurII
Trusted Member
I don't know. Why don't you tell us? My good guess is that each missile base has 4-5 entrances at least. And we probably have over 30 underground missile bases.
But remember, one B-2 can be used multiple times, unlike missiles.
So, even if Israel is given only 3 B-2s, as long as none has been shot down, they can reuse it as many times as they need. The US has produced at least 20 GBU-57s, but they can produce more if they want to.
mangekyo
Trusted Member
If we really had a million drones, we could have launched 20,000 a day and easily overwhelmed their air defenses. This suggests drone and missile numbers are exaggerated, we ran out of launchers even before the war began, or both. I think it's both, they've been hitting our stockpiles in Syria and carrying out sabotage in Iran for years.The sad truth is that that is probably not far from the truth either lol
What bothers me is so much is the complete, nearly 100% defeat, of our drone technology. Other than one or two Arash drones, none of our drones penetrated deep into Israeli territory. And we didn't launch that many drones either. I really expected Iran to use at least 10,000 drones in the 12-day war, but I think we used fewer than 1,000 drones over all.
I really believed that Iran had over one million drones. I mean it is not impossible. Ukraine has produced over a million drones since 2024. Russia has attacked Ukraine with hundreds of Shahed drones several times in the war. Sure, the distance between Russia and the war front is obviously different, but if we had fired 10,000 drones at Israel during these days, we would've depleted US and Israeli air defenses in the region to the point of complete annihilation.
Kyussis
Trusted Member
British intelligence was also spouting that Russia was running out of Missiles in the spring of 2023. SSM TEL trailers are not difficult to produce in numbers and commercial Semi Trucks can be used to pull them.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
I mean even Ukraine can produce a million drones per year.
What the IRGC have been doing for all these years?
This is why I insist that Iran-Russia relations are weird and defy logic. We delivered tens of thousands of Shahed-136 drones to Russia and it seems we haven't been able to replace them so far. So, again, we sacrificed our own national security for nothing in return.
I really hope I'm wrong, but I cannot, for the life of me, understand why our drone power performed so extremely poorly in the war. If we had fired 10,000 drones in the 12-day war, they wouldn't have been talking about attacking Iran any time soon.
Kyussis
Trusted Member
You do realize that he along with many of the commanders in the IRGCASF were martyred on the first day in a surprise attack, right? His forces were in disarray and all the major bases in the west of Iran had their entrances damaged, effectively preventing them to participate in the counter attacks.
mangekyo
Trusted Member
Hajizadeh specifically promised 10,000 missiles on day 1, not a few precise strikes. Firing ~42 per day over 12 days is nowhere close.
Destruction for who, them or us?
But they arguably took out more of our critical assets than we did of theirs.
Sure, we degraded them, but then accepted a ceasefire before exploiting that. I can't emphasize this enough.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
When Russia enlisted the aid of China, North Korea and Iran in its war against Ukraine, some American and British officials began talking about a new “axis.”
It appeared that the four countries were united by anger, authoritarianism and animus against the United States and its allies.
But Iran’s sales of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia for its war and oil shipped to China did not pay off when it mattered, raising doubts about unity among the nations.
None of the other three states rushed to aid Iran during its war with Israel or when U.S. forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites. China and Russia, by far the two most powerful countries among the four, issued pro forma denunciations of the American actions but did not lift a finger to materially help Iran.
“The reality of this conflict turned out to be that Russia and China didn’t run to Iran’s rescue,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “That just exposes the limitations of the whole ‘axis’ idea.”
“Each of them is pretty selfish and doesn’t want to get embroiled in the wars of others,” he added. “These are very different wars and different sets of conflicts. The countries are not necessarily sharing the same structures and values and institutional links the same way the U.S. and its allies do.”
The four nations all have autocratic systems and harbor hostility toward the United States, which traditionally has aimed to weaken them and challenge their legitimacy. The countries also have some strategic ties and have undermined U.S.-led economic sanctions by doing commerce and sharing weapons technology with one another.
“Yes, there is probably a very modest amount of coordination among China, North Korea, Iran and Russia — in the sense that they talk with each other and have some of the same frustrations with the United States or with the West,” said Michael Kimmage, a history professor at Catholic University of America and a former State Department official who has written a book on the war in Ukraine.
“But it’s not particularly meaningful,” he added.
Among the nations, only Russia and North Korea have a mutual defense treaty. Besides providing weapons to Russia, North Korea has sent more than 14,000 troops to fight alongside the Russians against Ukrainian forces.
Their bond is rooted in a shared Communist past and the anti-American war on the Korean Peninsula from 1950 to 1953, in which Mao’s China also took part.
A news broadcast in April showing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader. In addition to providing Russia with weapons, North Korea has sent more than 14,000 troops to help the Russians fight Ukrainian forces.Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press
That history also accounts for the close ties between China and Russia, one of the most consequential bilateral relationships for the U.S. government and much of the world. The leaders of the two nations have forged a personal bond over many years, and their governments announced that they had a “no limits” partnership just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
China still sees value in abiding by some of the international norms promoted by a pre-Trump America and democratic nations, and it has refrained from sending substantial arms aid to Russia during the war. But it has helped to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base, U.S. officials said, and it continues to be one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil.
Russia and Iran have never had that type of relationship.
One issue is religion. Iran is a theocracy with the type of ruling body that the other three secular, socialist governments regard with suspicion. Both Russia and China view the spread of Islamic fundamentalism with alarm. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has taken extreme measures against even moderate Muslims, suppressing some Islamic practices among ethnic Uyghurs and Kazakhs in his country’s northwest.
“There are no shared values beyond vague platitudes about the ‘multipolar world order,’ and there are quite a few contradictions,” said Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian at Johns Hopkins University. “Putin indicated what they are: His relationships with Iran’s neighbors, including Israel and the Arab states, are too important to sacrifice on the altar of Russian-Iranian friendship.”
“He is a cynical manipulator interested only in his strategic interests, and if this means throwing Iran under the bus, then he is prepared to do this,” Mr. Radchenko added. “To be sure, the feeling is fully reciprocated in Tehran.”
Mr. Putin and President Trump spoke about the Israel-Iran war on June 14, and Mr. Putin offered to mediate. Afterward, Mr. Putin said publicly that Russia had helped Iran build a nuclear power plant and was assisting with two more reactors.
While he spoke of Russia’s partnership with Iran, he signaled a reluctance to commit to aiding the country in the war.
“We are not imposing anything on anyone — we are simply talking about how we see a possible way out of the situation,” Mr. Putin said. “But the decision, of course, is up to the political leadership of all these countries, primarily Iran and Israel.”
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with Mr. Putin in Moscow on June 23, a day after the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, but the Russian summary of the meeting had little beyond the usual expressions of diplomatic support. That day, Iran carried out a symbolic missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar and then agreed to a cease-fire with Israel and the United States.
Image
A photograph released by Russian state media showing Mr. Putin meeting with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, a day after the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.Credit...Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik
China also watched from the stands as the crisis unfolded.
Mr. Xi said that all sides “should work to de-escalate the conflict.” And when Mr. Trump ordered the American strikes on Iran, China said it strongly condemned the attacks and accused the United States of violating the United Nations Charter.
But like Russia, China did not send material support to Iran. Although China does sometimes take an official position on conflicts in the region, it also often tries to appear noncommittal in order to balance interests. For years, it has been building up its ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two rivals of Iran. Saudi Arabia, like Iran, is a big oil exporter to China.
An extended regional war would jeopardize China’s oil imports from those countries, so it seeks to quell hostilities rather than stoke them.
China’s aim of being a neutral broker in the Middle East became evident in March 2023, when it helped finalize a diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
China also used that opportunity to develop closer ties with Iran’s partner in the region, Syria, ruled then by Bashar al-Assad.
That was a period when China’s influence in the Middle East was at a peak, said Enrico Fardella, a professor at the University of Naples “L’Orientale” who has taught at Peking University and studies China’s foreign policy. Now, with Iran weakened by the war and Mr. Assad overthrown by rebels, China is treading carefully around the Iran-Israel conflict to see which governments and political groups or militias in the region emerge as the most powerful.
“While Beijing has a vested interest in promoting a cease-fire and post-conflict stabilization, its current low-profile diplomacy suggests limited confidence in its ability to influence events,” Mr. Fardella said in a text message. “As in post-Assad Syria, China may once again adopt a wait-and-see strategy, carefully repositioning itself to salvage influence in a rapidly shifting post-conflict landscape.”
Yun Sun, a scholar of China’s foreign policy at the Stimson Center, a research institute in Washington, argued that the “axis” formulation for China, Russia, Iran and North Korea was still valid. Although the four countries do not have a mutual defense agreement binding all of them, she said, they share an “anti-U.S., anti-West and anti-liberal democracy” outlook.
“An alignment short of mutual defense is an alignment after all,” Ms. Sun added. “The fact they won’t fight for each other in a war does not make their cooperation and collective positioning less of a challenge. China has provided nuclear and missile technologies to Iran. It has bankrolled Russia’s war and kept North Korea on life support.”
But there are limits to China’s support for Iran, Ms. Sun said, adding that Chinese officials lack confidence in Iran’s theocratic leadership, and that they see Iran as having “been too naïve, opportunistic, indecisive and wavering in its external relations.”
Chinese officials are also aware that Iran, like North Korea, is an isolated country and needs China, despite occasional ebbs in the relationship.
On June 26, after Iran agreed to a cease-fire with Israel, Iran’s defense minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, made his first trip abroad since the war began — to the Chinese city of Qingdao for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian security group led by China and Russia.
Edward Wong reports on global affairs, U.S. foreign policy and the State Department for The Times.
It appeared that the four countries were united by anger, authoritarianism and animus against the United States and its allies.
But Iran’s sales of drones and ballistic missiles to Russia for its war and oil shipped to China did not pay off when it mattered, raising doubts about unity among the nations.
None of the other three states rushed to aid Iran during its war with Israel or when U.S. forces bombed Iranian nuclear sites. China and Russia, by far the two most powerful countries among the four, issued pro forma denunciations of the American actions but did not lift a finger to materially help Iran.
“The reality of this conflict turned out to be that Russia and China didn’t run to Iran’s rescue,” said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “That just exposes the limitations of the whole ‘axis’ idea.”
“Each of them is pretty selfish and doesn’t want to get embroiled in the wars of others,” he added. “These are very different wars and different sets of conflicts. The countries are not necessarily sharing the same structures and values and institutional links the same way the U.S. and its allies do.”
The four nations all have autocratic systems and harbor hostility toward the United States, which traditionally has aimed to weaken them and challenge their legitimacy. The countries also have some strategic ties and have undermined U.S.-led economic sanctions by doing commerce and sharing weapons technology with one another.
“Yes, there is probably a very modest amount of coordination among China, North Korea, Iran and Russia — in the sense that they talk with each other and have some of the same frustrations with the United States or with the West,” said Michael Kimmage, a history professor at Catholic University of America and a former State Department official who has written a book on the war in Ukraine.
“But it’s not particularly meaningful,” he added.
Among the nations, only Russia and North Korea have a mutual defense treaty. Besides providing weapons to Russia, North Korea has sent more than 14,000 troops to fight alongside the Russians against Ukrainian forces.
Their bond is rooted in a shared Communist past and the anti-American war on the Korean Peninsula from 1950 to 1953, in which Mao’s China also took part.
A news broadcast in April showing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader. In addition to providing Russia with weapons, North Korea has sent more than 14,000 troops to help the Russians fight Ukrainian forces.Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press
That history also accounts for the close ties between China and Russia, one of the most consequential bilateral relationships for the U.S. government and much of the world. The leaders of the two nations have forged a personal bond over many years, and their governments announced that they had a “no limits” partnership just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
China still sees value in abiding by some of the international norms promoted by a pre-Trump America and democratic nations, and it has refrained from sending substantial arms aid to Russia during the war. But it has helped to rebuild Russia’s defense industrial base, U.S. officials said, and it continues to be one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil.
Russia and Iran have never had that type of relationship.
One issue is religion. Iran is a theocracy with the type of ruling body that the other three secular, socialist governments regard with suspicion. Both Russia and China view the spread of Islamic fundamentalism with alarm. Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has taken extreme measures against even moderate Muslims, suppressing some Islamic practices among ethnic Uyghurs and Kazakhs in his country’s northwest.
“There are no shared values beyond vague platitudes about the ‘multipolar world order,’ and there are quite a few contradictions,” said Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian at Johns Hopkins University. “Putin indicated what they are: His relationships with Iran’s neighbors, including Israel and the Arab states, are too important to sacrifice on the altar of Russian-Iranian friendship.”
“He is a cynical manipulator interested only in his strategic interests, and if this means throwing Iran under the bus, then he is prepared to do this,” Mr. Radchenko added. “To be sure, the feeling is fully reciprocated in Tehran.”
Mr. Putin and President Trump spoke about the Israel-Iran war on June 14, and Mr. Putin offered to mediate. Afterward, Mr. Putin said publicly that Russia had helped Iran build a nuclear power plant and was assisting with two more reactors.
While he spoke of Russia’s partnership with Iran, he signaled a reluctance to commit to aiding the country in the war.
“We are not imposing anything on anyone — we are simply talking about how we see a possible way out of the situation,” Mr. Putin said. “But the decision, of course, is up to the political leadership of all these countries, primarily Iran and Israel.”
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with Mr. Putin in Moscow on June 23, a day after the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, but the Russian summary of the meeting had little beyond the usual expressions of diplomatic support. That day, Iran carried out a symbolic missile attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar and then agreed to a cease-fire with Israel and the United States.
Image
A photograph released by Russian state media showing Mr. Putin meeting with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, a day after the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.Credit...Alexander Kazakov/Sputnik
China also watched from the stands as the crisis unfolded.
Mr. Xi said that all sides “should work to de-escalate the conflict.” And when Mr. Trump ordered the American strikes on Iran, China said it strongly condemned the attacks and accused the United States of violating the United Nations Charter.
But like Russia, China did not send material support to Iran. Although China does sometimes take an official position on conflicts in the region, it also often tries to appear noncommittal in order to balance interests. For years, it has been building up its ties to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two rivals of Iran. Saudi Arabia, like Iran, is a big oil exporter to China.
An extended regional war would jeopardize China’s oil imports from those countries, so it seeks to quell hostilities rather than stoke them.
China’s aim of being a neutral broker in the Middle East became evident in March 2023, when it helped finalize a diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
China also used that opportunity to develop closer ties with Iran’s partner in the region, Syria, ruled then by Bashar al-Assad.
That was a period when China’s influence in the Middle East was at a peak, said Enrico Fardella, a professor at the University of Naples “L’Orientale” who has taught at Peking University and studies China’s foreign policy. Now, with Iran weakened by the war and Mr. Assad overthrown by rebels, China is treading carefully around the Iran-Israel conflict to see which governments and political groups or militias in the region emerge as the most powerful.
“While Beijing has a vested interest in promoting a cease-fire and post-conflict stabilization, its current low-profile diplomacy suggests limited confidence in its ability to influence events,” Mr. Fardella said in a text message. “As in post-Assad Syria, China may once again adopt a wait-and-see strategy, carefully repositioning itself to salvage influence in a rapidly shifting post-conflict landscape.”
Yun Sun, a scholar of China’s foreign policy at the Stimson Center, a research institute in Washington, argued that the “axis” formulation for China, Russia, Iran and North Korea was still valid. Although the four countries do not have a mutual defense agreement binding all of them, she said, they share an “anti-U.S., anti-West and anti-liberal democracy” outlook.
“An alignment short of mutual defense is an alignment after all,” Ms. Sun added. “The fact they won’t fight for each other in a war does not make their cooperation and collective positioning less of a challenge. China has provided nuclear and missile technologies to Iran. It has bankrolled Russia’s war and kept North Korea on life support.”
But there are limits to China’s support for Iran, Ms. Sun said, adding that Chinese officials lack confidence in Iran’s theocratic leadership, and that they see Iran as having “been too naïve, opportunistic, indecisive and wavering in its external relations.”
Chinese officials are also aware that Iran, like North Korea, is an isolated country and needs China, despite occasional ebbs in the relationship.
On June 26, after Iran agreed to a cease-fire with Israel, Iran’s defense minister, Aziz Nasirzadeh, made his first trip abroad since the war began — to the Chinese city of Qingdao for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Eurasian security group led by China and Russia.
Edward Wong reports on global affairs, U.S. foreign policy and the State Department for The Times.
mangekyo
Trusted Member
Didn’t he make this 10,000 missiles claim even before TP1?
I can tell you one thing: if we were actually capable of launching anywhere near 10,000 missiles in a single day, it would mean the stockpile is so large we'd need so many TELs that it couldn’t be “severely degraded” after a few days. The scale of launch capacity implied by that claim just doesn’t match the reality we saw.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
Honestly, I am absolutely OK with the performance of our ballistic missiles.
They had 3 large scale attacks. The first two were to deplete Israeli air defense and the last one was to end the war before ceasefire. I think even 50 MRBMs/day is an excellent average for 12 days. Many countries in our region, and even in the world, do not have a total of 50 MRBMs to begin with.
However, our drones performed extremely poorly. We fired only a few drones and all of them except for one or two were intercepted. Our drone technology performed extremely poorly in the war, particularly in terms of quantity, which was supposed to be our advantage in the war.
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Kyussis
Trusted Member
Lets say Israel has 3 B-2s with infinite GBU-57s. Lets say Iran has 30 bases with 4 entrances each totaling in 120 targets. How long is the flight time for each mission? last time they flew 37hours. Sure B-2s are reusable but they need to undergo regular maintenance cycles, which means that they cannot fly bombing sorties back to back without down time. Iran will pummel Israel to ash and powder before the B-2s can take out Iran's missile bases. Israel will need years to build up its Anti ballistic air defense to where it was on June 12. The U.S used up 20% of its THAAD inventory that they had built since before 2008 in just 12 days!
Kyussis
Trusted Member
Our drones have to fly 1200km minimum over hostile airspaces just to reach Israel!
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