Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Navid09]

If we go by the simpleton view that "entirety" of Iranian nuclear program was gathered in few of those rooms to take the US hit in those facilities then yes but world is not so simple otherwise AIPAC run US would not be negotiating with Iran again, nuclear spy arm "IAEA" would not be dying to return to Iran either. Nuclear program is not a tangible entity that can be destroyed by 2 bombs dropped in sand. The knowledge, the expertise, the tools, blueprints all is there in one of the worlds most technically educated nation with a large terrain to hide in. Here is the connected question that no one is even asking, where is that ~half a ton 60% HEU ? If Israel goal was to prevent Iran from using that HEU to make WGU and subsequent devices then its still inside Iran in hands of same leadership they claimed is going to use them to make bombs (netanyahu's words). What did Israel achieve here ?

Besides, what is the guarantee that all these years IRI just did not build a parallel more secretive micro facilities like other nuclear armed countries. The idea of such a system actually came from Israel itself if your read its own nuclear program. This is not just my view, few mainstream journalists hold the same opinion that IRI always knew this possibility so they may have shifted to the parallel micro-sites the first time they were threatened by US bombing. Different debate.



You are naming their designations to make them sound some HUGE losses but were they? Most were crude ground soldiers from Iraq war era who IRI mullah leadership just politically trusted because they were ideologically aligned so they became "Chiefs" and "Heads" of this and that. Majority was way past retirement, most were idiots like motor mouth Salami and clueless Bagheri under whom the Iranian armed forced regressed the most. The scary nuclear "scientist" Davani was the same fool who once claimed Iran is a superpower on par with US. At best these old men were roadblocks and nothing else. Only actual loss felt at first was Hajizadeh but IRGCAF's strike after strike proved that even he was not some key player. We are living in AI age, individuals do not matter that much the way they did few years back.

Just for sake of argument even if we say they were HUGE losses, I will ask again, what did their killings bring to Israel? If the goal was to cripple IRGC then that did not happen so what did Israel achieve by taking out these clowns ?



See this is the issue here, if Khamenei's survival is important for Israel and he is the absolute power in Iran then why even wage war at first place? Their most trusted ally is sitting on throne in Tehran right ? This is exactly my point that what did Israel wanted to achieve in this war because from broader perspective they achieved literally nothing.





Deterrence was not established by Israel at all. Killing of generals, bombing civilians, using hundreds of hired agents (disgruntled Iranians) from within Iran to do internal terrorism disguised as "aerial attacks" nothing worked because IRGC kept firing back in the heart of the Israel, IRI leadership is still sitting on throne, nuclear program cant die, close to half a ton HEU is still inside Iran, Iranian nation rallied around Mullahs. It would have been an absolute victory for Israel if even half of their goals were achieved but they did not. You are seeing micro details of who killed how many random people on street but wars are won strategically when goals are achieved otherwise Nazis won the WWII because they killed the most people.

IRI is a dysfunctional system run by illiterate self appointed priests under decades of sanctions. Israel on the other hand is a power group that controls entire US and EU, PGCC. Both failed, Iranian case is understandable but why did Israel fail miserably in its goals?

I suspect Israel's goal was either to start a civil war this is supported by the fact they tried to make it look like Iran lost so much and was in chaos, and they burned lots of tyres and exaggerated on everything.

The other possibility is that they simply wanted to economically wear Iran down further.

If the former then they achieved it to some degree, just depends how much more they have lost compare to Iran and who can take it more. If the latter then of course they failed.

 

[tsunset]

I suspect Israel's goal was either to start a civil war this is supported by the fact they tried to make it look like Iran lost so much and was in chaos, and they burned lots of tyres and exaggerated on everything.

The other possibility is that they simply wanted to economically wear Iran down further.

If the former then they achieved it to some degree, just depends how much more they have lost compare to Iran and who can take it more. If the latter then of course they failed.

It is undeniable that the main goal was regime collapse (and not regime change)

They didn't call it Rising Lion for nothing

 

[Immortals]

Where would Iran be today if the Pahlavi regime had not collapsed? The Pahlavi regime had its problems and corruption. The shah's brother had to be a partner in any Iranian company of significance. Shah's sister Ashraf was like the cartel. She was the opium and heroin queen. But I can say that the fake country of the UAE would be as irrelevant as Oman.
The chances of a negotiated settlement of repatriation of Azerbaijan would be a reality, although at the cost of significant concessions to the Americans.

You forget Reza Pahlavi got cancer, even if he stayed in power he would have died long before Iran was able to escape being a vessel state (and become say more like Turkey in that they are both aligned and disaligned with the West).

With Reza dead a power vacuum would have occurred and who knows where Iran would have ended up.

Either way resisting American Empire for 45 years while noble, ended up bankrupting Iran and destroying its social fabric.

Now with the recent Armenia-USA-Azeri deal, it looks like all that was required for Iran to lose all its influence in the Middle East was an America that had resolve to confront it seriously instead of playing containment theory (Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden, etc). Trump was a disaster for Iran because he gave Bibi the greenlight to dismantle the Axis and we found out that Iran was mostly all talk hiding behind bluster and bravado.

At this point, IR of iran is headed towards collapse or irrelevance unless some turns their fortunes around.

 

[ShapurII]

You forget Reza Pahlavi got cancer, even if he stayed in power he would have died long before Iran was able to escape being a vessel state (and become say more like Turkey in that they are both aligned and disaligned with the West).

With Reza dead a power vacuum would have occurred and who knows where Iran would have ended up.

You mean Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, I guess.
His clown of a son would've taken the throne.

Now with the recent Armenia-USA-Azeri deal, it looks like all that was required for Iran to lose all its influence in the Middle East was an America that had resolve to confront it seriously instead of playing containment theory (Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden, etc). Trump was a disaster for Iran because he gave Bibi the greenlight to dismantle the Axis and we found out that Iran was mostly all talk hiding behind bluster and bravado.

The containment theory did its job though. It took time, but it weakened Iran to the point of economic collapse with literally no cost to the US.

 

[PK781]

lets face it
all the muslim countries are led by coward and corrupt people who are traitors.
The muslim people are in for a world of hurt in whats coming soon. We will learn the hard way, yet again by seeing our countries destroyed internally and externally.
its the way things are, whether or not you're a nuke power. It doesn't matter when your populations are struggling for steady jobs/income/food/shelter/basics of life etc.

 

[Bharatah]

lets face it
all the muslim countries are led by coward and corrupt people who are traitors.
The muslim people are in for a world of hurt in whats coming soon. We will learn the hard way, yet again by seeing our countries destroyed internally and externally.
its the way things are, whether or not you're a nuke power. It doesn't matter when your populations are struggling for steady jobs/income/food/shelter/basics of life etc.

They are not Muslims. The last Sunni Islamic empire was the Ottoman Empire. When it fell, its former territory was used to create current countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and many others. These countries were created by foreign colonizers, who put anti-Islamic puppets in power at their founding. You'll even see that the Young Turks and Atartuk went so far as to ban Islamic practices and even tariqas! Over the decades, the US and Israel have created the "Far right NEOCON": puppet politicians of Zionism who pretend to be conservatives of some Christian or Islamic culture. Hence: Trump, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, Ronald Reagan, Geert Wilders and many others. They have always been working for Zionism. ALWAYS, but now with the internet + the public genocide of the Palestinians, this became VISIBLE for those who hadn't seen it yet.

NOTE: WHO DID CREATE even ARAB LEAGUE WAS BRITISH REGIME !
Britain dominated countries like Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan (through mandates or treaties) and pressured some Arab leaders to cooperate with each other. The Pact of Alexandria (1944), which led to the creation of the League, was brokered by Arab politicians, but under British colonial pressure.

 

[kastor ville]

You forget Reza Pahlavi got cancer, even if he stayed in power he would have died long before Iran was able to escape being a vessel state (and become say more like Turkey in that they are both aligned and disaligned with the West).

With Reza dead a power vacuum would have occurred and who knows where Iran would have ended up.

Either way resisting American Empire for 45 years while noble, ended up bankrupting Iran and destroying its social fabric.

Now with the recent Armenia-USA-Azeri deal, it looks like all that was required for Iran to lose all its influence in the Middle East was an America that had resolve to confront it seriously instead of playing containment theory (Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden, etc). Trump was a disaster for Iran because he gave Bibi the greenlight to dismantle the Axis and we found out that Iran was mostly all talk hiding behind bluster and bravado.

At this point, IR of iran is headed towards collapse or irrelevance unless some turns their fortunes around.

It was a completely childish and irrelevant move...who got hurt economically from all those stupid slogans? Us or the USA? Who got isolated, attacked and sanctioned to death...us or them? Man, I'm all for resistance if it has a meaningful conclusion or result...but the old man cultivated nothing. So many young, brilliant Iranians lost their future, their chance. It saddens me to no end to see UAE, Qatar, and even Turkey thrive, while our young generation struggles to make ends meet. They fucked up, and I want them to admit it.

 

[FUB]

It should be clip from a comedy show but sadly it is real . How gullible and uninformed is the domestic population?
Move to the 10 minute mark of the video
I didn’t know there was a deep state in Iran as well .

 

[Persian Gulf]

Pezeshkian defends possibility of talks with EU/USA, saying even if we rebuild our sites, Israel/US will just bomb them again so we need to reach a political resolution. and he says any talks must be approved by the government.

two takeaways:

1) IRI/hardliners use reformists as scapegoat while they decide and approve the policies behind the scenes (which does not excuse Pezeshkian's weak character and lack of leadership which frequently embarrasses Iran)

2) the military has failed to provide alternative options to the decision makers, meaning they have no choice but to pursue diplomacy and capitulate on our rights since we can't defend them militarily:



@ShapurII

 

[Persian Gulf]

this deadly delusion based on entirely incorrect assumptions was widespread throughout the system... from Hajizadeh to Araghchi...

who is responsible? IRGC commanders who bragged about their capabilities for decades? incompetent leaders failing to implement real military progress on the ground (vs constant unveiling of prototypes and systems which are never actually brought into service in a material way)?

@ShapurII

 

[PakAl]

Pezeshkian defends possibility of talks with EU/USA, saying even if we rebuild our sites, Israel/US will just bomb them again so we need to reach a political resolution. and he says any talks must be approved by the government.

two takeaways:

1) IRI/hardliners use reformists as scapegoat while they decide and approve the policies behind the scenes (which does not excuse Pezeshkian's weak character and lack of leadership which frequently embarrasses Iran)

2) the military has failed to provide alternative options to the decision makers, meaning they have no choice but to pursue diplomacy and capitulate on our rights since we can't defend them militarily:



@ShapurII

Iran President is right, what can Iran do? They can spend billions, rebuild the sites but Israel WILL bomb iran again or will pressurise the Usa to destroy nuclear sites. Iran cannot do anything to protect itself, this was proven from the 12 days war, all the propaganda about secret weapons is not correct, or else Iran would have used them to create deterrent.

Iran needs advance airforce to deny anyone entering their territory, Usa and Israel will stop this from happening, Iran also needs to replace all missile launchers which we don't know if it happened or not, can Iran produce 200 launchers within a short time, or replace 1000s of missiles which were lost/used, lastly Iran needs to make sure all local collaborators, mossad agents are arrested but we simply don't know how many 1000s more agents are in Iran.

The only option for Iran is to request China Russia help, use SCO and BRICS to pressurise the Usa EU for negotiation, downgrade their nuclear enrichment for peace and removal of sanctions, then slowly over the decade develop their military and especially airforce. Iran must also use UN OIC SCO BRICS to give a clear message to Israel that the next attack on Iran will be regarded as declaration of war and Iran will respond with a big attack on Israel. Iran must draw the redline or else we will witness Iran Syria Lebanon Gaza style attacks on Iran, before everyone were saying Israel wouldn't dare take on Hizbollah, then Syria, and finally Iran but Israel shown they can do it all. @Persian Gulf @shapurll
Has Iran announced anything regarding dealing with Israeli threat and if launchers are replaced or not.

 

[ShapurII]

Iran President is right, what can Iran do? They can spend billions, rebuild the sites but Israel WILL bomb iran again or will pressurise the Usa to destroy nuclear sites. Iran cannot do anything to protect itself, this was proven from the 12 days war, all the propaganda about secret weapons is not correct, or else Iran would have used them to create deterrent.

Iran needs advance airforce to deny anyone entering their territory, Usa and Israel will stop this from happening, Iran also needs to replace all missile launchers which we don't know if it happened or not, can Iran produce 200 launchers within a short time, or replace 1000s of missiles which were lost/used, lastly Iran needs to make sure all local collaborators, mossad agents are arrested but we simply don't know how many 1000s more agents are in Iran.

The only option for Iran is to request China Russia help, use SCO and BRICS to pressurise the Usa EU for negotiation, downgrade their nuclear enrichment for peace and removal of sanctions, then slowly over the decade develop their military and especially airforce. Iran must also use UN OIC SCO BRICS to give a clear message to Israel that the next attack on Iran will be regarded as declaration of war and Iran will respond with a big attack on Israel. Iran must draw the redline or else we will witness Iran Syria Lebanon Gaza style attacks on Iran, before everyone were saying Israel wouldn't dare take on Hizbollah, then Syria, and finally Iran but Israel shown they can do it all. @Persian Gulf @shapurll
Has Iran announced anything regarding dealing with Israeli threat and if launchers are replaced or not.

Realistically speaking, Iran is pinned down and there isn't much that Iran could do at this point, except for going nuclear which looks more and more unlikely every week.

BRICS is a joke. It's an organization that will fall apart sooner than what most people think. OIC is even worse, and UN is controlled by the US.
Iran has no red lines because it is fighting with two of the most powerful nuclear states in the world. A non-nuclear Iran cannot draw red lines for the US, or even Israel.

It seems that there's a clear shift in Iran's foreign policy. Iran has become extremely passive, and is trying to stay way from the heat. Internally, Iran has too many problems as well. This could either be either a form of Taqiyya by the Ayatollahs, or symptoms of a country on the verge of implosion and collapse. I think late August will be very important for Iran, and we will be attacked again in September. From what it looks, Iran will either win everything, or lose everything. There is no middle ground anymore.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran President is right, what can Iran do? They can spend billions, rebuild the sites but Israel WILL bomb iran again or will pressurise the Usa to destroy nuclear sites. Iran cannot do anything to protect itself, this was proven from the 12 days war, all the propaganda about secret weapons is not correct, or else Iran would have used them to create deterrent.

Iran needs advance airforce to deny anyone entering their territory, Usa and Israel will stop this from happening, Iran also needs to replace all missile launchers which we don't know if it happened or not, can Iran produce 200 launchers within a short time, or replace 1000s of missiles which were lost/used, lastly Iran needs to make sure all local collaborators, mossad agents are arrested but we simply don't know how many 1000s more agents are in Iran.

The only option for Iran is to request China Russia help, use SCO and BRICS to pressurise the Usa EU for negotiation, downgrade their nuclear enrichment for peace and removal of sanctions, then slowly over the decade develop their military and especially airforce. Iran must also use UN OIC SCO BRICS to give a clear message to Israel that the next attack on Iran will be regarded as declaration of war and Iran will respond with a big attack on Israel. Iran must draw the redline or else we will witness Iran Syria Lebanon Gaza style attacks on Iran, before everyone were saying Israel wouldn't dare take on Hizbollah, then Syria, and finally Iran but Israel shown they can do it all. @Persian Gulf @shapurll
Has Iran announced anything regarding dealing with Israeli threat and if launchers are replaced or not.

a few points

1) some sites can be protected from bombing if built deep enough. notably, the tunnels in Esfahan storing the 60% HEU were not attacked, the missile cities built under 100-500m mountains were not penetrated, the new nuclear site under construction in Natanz (150m under mountain) was not attacked and the US admitted this was because they could not reach it. Israel couldn't even attack the older site at Natanz (10-20m underground) on its own. Iran can build sites that are effectively immune to conventional attacks by the US (i.e., cannot be destroyed, but they can be rendered unusable for a few months).

2) Israeli propaganda about missile launchers is a mirage. these are cheap and easy to produce. hydraulics systems installed on commercial trucks. Israel destroyed < 100 of these (used a lot of edited/repeat footage). this is a drop in the ocean. the real impediment to more launches was Israel's successful suppression of the entrances to the major SSM bases in West Iran by precisely and repeatedly bombing their entrances. we thought these bases had excavators inside the base to 'dig out' but seems that wasn't the case. and when excavators came to remove the rubble and restore the entrance, they were bombed by Israeli drones.

this can be resolved by storing excavators inside the bases and building more entrances and launch silos. and more importantly at least protecting these bases (and missiles preparing for launch out in the open) from MALE drones (should be possible with 358 / Majid systems but apparently not effective until the later days of the war when Iran finally started shooting down MALE drones).

lastly on the missile launchers. Iran was not able to use any of its major SSM bases in West Iran as Israel destroyed the entrances. but each base has hundreds of missile launchers / TELs. so none of these were destroyed as they never even left the base. so that's not really a major issue here.

 

[Persian Gulf]

the real issue is internal traitors and lack of air defence

but I wonder if he is right that none of these traitors were arrested. I am not sure they would all stay in Iran in these conditions.

 

[ShapurII]

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Remember what I told you? When push comes to shove, they won't produce only 200 missiles per year. I'm sure they can easily increase this number to +2,000 per year if they really need to.

@Persian Gulf @Emirzad @tsunset