Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Israel will lose its intelligence advantage as well. Those intel assets in Iran took Iran by surprise, but now the situation is tense with the government deploying security forces. Israel was able to prevent missile attacks primarily because its moles in the IRGC told them where the missiles were going to be launched from(In my opinion). Hopefully, this time around, the government uses only its newer missiles and uses its cruise missiles this time.
When I was in Istanbul, metro stations had security screenings before being allowed to enter. Iran must take more preventive security measures, manned and unmanned systems.
Further, all these military leaders, important scientists, I hope they live in gated communities?
 
Israel was able to prevent missile attacks primarily because its moles in the IRGC told them where the missiles were going to be launched from(In my opinion).
not plausible. Israel suppressed all the major SSM bases in the West by targeting the entrances. the location of the SSM bases are all known
 
When I was in Istanbul, metro stations had security screenings before being allowed to enter. Iran must take more preventive security measures, manned and unmanned systems.
Further, all these military leaders, important scientists, I hope they live in gated communities?
the remaining scientists have all been relocated but Israel is closely tracking their locations
 
why is that the impossible? that was what they were designed to do. to fire missiles during war time. a huge amount of resources was invested over decades so that they could perform that one mission. they were supposed to destroy the enemy's airbases and turn their cities to rubble and fire 10,000 missiles at Haifa. you can't do that with 50 missiles per day (much less in the final days - 200 fired on day 1 skew that average number). since Iran's doctrine relies on cost effectiveness, you need to put aside 500-1000 'cheap' missiles just to deplete their interceptors.

drones over that large distance with countries acting as buffers and Israel's huge stockpile of Iron Dome interceptors will always struggle. believe we had 2-5 confirmed impacts from around 1000 drones fired.

Not sure why Iran never declared state of emergency and announced war with Israel, even if it lasted for 12 days. Iran must change this immediately, they need to make this attack by Israel as something very serious and not down play it. Iran must speak to its allies, then UN and make it clear if another Israeli attack takes place, Iran will respond with full force, they will target everything in Israel, including bases, ports, nuclear facilities etc. Some mind of deterrence must be set to protect Iran from attacks.
 
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not plausible. Israel suppressed all the major SSM bases in the West by targeting the entrances. the location of the SSM bases are all known
They did try to fire ballistic missiles from launchers on the surface no? Even now I am sure the IRGC put excavators in those facilities so they can tunnel out. Also do you think they will use missile silos in round 2?
 
When I was in Istanbul, metro stations had security screenings before being allowed to enter. Iran must take more preventive security measures, manned and unmanned systems.
Further, all these military leaders, important scientists, I hope they live in gated communities?
If Israel was able to kill them they would have done so during the 12 days war. Security is tighter now so I doubt Israel will be able to kill them.
 
I don't know the guy but his take seems plausible to me:

I have a piece in @ForeignPolicy
where I argue that a new Israeli-Iranian war is coming - perhaps as early as the end of August.

This is mainly driven by Israel's desire to turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon - countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement.

In its first attack, Israel had three objectives - drag the US into the war, decapitate the regime, and subdue Iran to Israel's military dominance (Syria option) - but only achieved the first.

But having started this campaign, it feels that it now must finish it before Iran rebuilds or acquires better air defenses. Otherwise, the balance will shift against Israel. In addition, it calculates it must act before the US enters the midterm election season.

This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. It played the long game in the first war, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a protracted conflict. In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance.

And then there is the Trump factor...

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I doubt it......Israel is in no position to start again, the THAAD and Arrow missiles have no yet been replenished.....it would be a sitting duck for 2.0. Also, Germany, Italy and Australia have now turned against the Likud party. I'm not saying their against Israel....we're not there yet, but they're tired of Netanyahu's antics. I doubt they will regroup and fly defense for Israel again. If Israel starts some shit now, they will have to go at us with little help from her allies, if you know the Israelis they will never move a finger without help from the US/EU.
 
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In most countries treason is punishableble by death, however we elect traitors as president in Iran. All while khamenei sits silently on his fatwa and further advances jew interests in the region.
 
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Remember what I told you? When push comes to shove, they won't produce only 200 missiles per year. I'm sure they can easily increase this number to +2,000 per year if they really need to.

@Persian Gulf @Emirzad @tsunset

No impact on Israeli IADS

but I must say one of the biggest BS strategic plan ever made in history of military warfare is IRGC's jab for jab missile strike exchange against nuclear armed Israel that dictates 2 superpowers of the world directly.

When you face a nuclear armed state like Israel (IMO Iran should never had meddled in that region) you dont scare it with conventional warfare of a hypersonic missile here a drone there, you scare it with annihilation to scare it from harming your people. IRGCAF saved Iranian face in this war but even if they had fired 500 more missiles the outcome will always be in favor of enemy that can up the escalation any time to nuclear exchange. Thats where IRI failed.
 
I suspect Israel's goal was either to start a civil war this is supported by the fact they tried to make it look like Iran lost so much and was in chaos, and they burned lots of tyres and exaggerated on everything.

The other possibility is that they simply wanted to economically wear Iran down further.

If the former then they achieved it to some degree, just depends how much more they have lost compare to Iran and who can take it more. If the latter then of course they failed.

Goals and Outcomes From Israeli POV.

Phase 1:

Goal: Cripple IRGC strike corps completely by inner terrorism or strike so IRGC just goes silent, bomb their bases, kill their top Generals etc.

Outcome: Utter Failure, IRGC's CoC re-established within few hours and started landing missiles in Israeli cities. Its like better ppl took over than those who were killed.

Phase 2:

Goal: Once IRGC is gone (assumption), rally Iranians against IRI government so they cause inner chaos on streets, erupt up a civil war like rising hence the "Rising Lion" of Persian/Aryan Empire against Islamist IRI.

Outcome: Failure, Inner hired agents started getting busted, termed as domestic terrorists and people instead rallied around IRI mullahs. Same mistake USSR and Baathists did against Iran in 1940s and 80s, respectively. You dont bomb houses of population and expect them to rally for you.

Phase 3:

Goal: Regime Change by targetting IRI mullah leadership and their sycophants.

Outcome: Failure, not a even a single akhoond hit.

Phase 4:

Goal: Drag US in the war against Iran. Israel always knew, the large geography of Iran along with its tough missile forces, will be too much for Israel to handle in a war so they they needed US military muscle.

Outcome: Partial success, Epstein files+AIPAC pressure worked to the extent that Trump did a token probably pre-bargained strike to end the conflict. US straight way refused to enter the war the Israel was pushing it to. Trump even categorically said that they deliberately did not fire at Armed Forces of Iran.

Phase 5:

Goal: Establish Deterrence over Armed forces of Iran. Cripple and Scare them to the point that Iran just keeps on taking it from Israel with impunity the way Syria, Lebanon, Palestine took before.

Outcome: Strategic Failure, IRGCAF kept firing back inside the heart of Israel till the last minute before ceasefire. They used hypersonics, they used solid fueled MRBMs, they used whatever they needed without any hurdle. Israeli IADS crumbled to a fair amount. The neighbourhoods, the institutions, the port that never saw an ounce of fire from enemy were struck. When you fail to subdue enemy, you fail in war. Deterrence was not established.

Phase 6:

Goal: Rally regional foes of Iran and global powers to Israeli support. Namely Turkey (biggest trade partner of Israel regionally), Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, PGCC arabs.

Outcome: Except for Jordan, no country provided verbal or material support to Israel. KSA's intelligence warned Iran of incoming Israeli attack before the war started. Qatar facilitated the ceasefire. Oman made sure US-Iran in-person communication continues. Turkey like a good pet kept on supplying Israel with 6 Billion USD worth raw materials while same Israel is ethno cleansing Sunni Arabs and were killing "Tork" Azeris in Iran (so much for Turkic nationalism). It was expected but atleast Turkey did not do anything against Iran directly. Chinese supplies continued through the war. Nobody did anything in Israeli favor except for usual suspects.

Phase 7:

Goal: Destroy Nuclear program of Iran. Cease/destroy the ~0.5 Ton HEU.

Outcome: Failure. A spread out Nuclear Program is not a tangible entity that can be destroyed by killing few workers or dropping few bombs in sand. Knowledge, blueprints, tools, experience is still there and that half a ton HEU is still inside Iran somewhere where it was probably taken before US attack came. Its still in the hands of same IRI mullahs and IRGC.

Phase 8:

Goal: Establish Narrative, claim victories for inner consumption.

Outcome: Full success. Israel not only falsely claimed militarily unproven victories over Iran and got away with in in eyes of its own population, it actually even hid the hits it took from IRGC. Phase 9 and 10 are related to this.

Phase 9:

Goal: Narrative of total air-superiority of over Iran.

Outcome: Narrative success, They claimed aerial superiority over Iran while except for 2 jettison cases by F-15 when it was tracked and fired upon by a Khordad battery and one spice PGM strike not a single shred of evidence exist that Israeli planes were flying over heads of people in Iran the way Israeli media claimed. Majority of the attacks came from Inner terrorists and aerial attacks came from Iraqi airspace through ALCMs and ALBMs. In such a two week long conflict, had it been a total air-superiority there would have been hundreds of clips of fighters in skies, launching munitions the way we saw in Iraq, Ukraine, Syria before. Yet Israel claimed this and IRI mullahs being dumb as hell just could not even understand the value of narrative war.

Phase 10:

Goal: Hide hits/Casualties, Gag order on on-site visuals, reports.

Outcome: Full Success, Israel took hits from IRGCAF, in its population centre, at its port, at its institutions. We know that. But how many people died? not 30 or so as they claimed for sure otherwise such a strict state level gag order would not have been issued in first place. IRI thrives on civilian deaths because thats exactly how they came into power. More deaths, more martyrs, more mass emotions to rally people around. Israel on the other hand over the decades has shifted from "victim Jew" to "mad dog" image, they have ensured their population that IDF is just invincible. When the same population sees an enemy that can destroy their homes, their neighbourhoods, disrupt their lives whenever it wants, they can easily loose this mad dog image of their armed forces in their minds. Which is why it was necessary for Israel to hide casualties and they successfully did that. Police was ceasing mobile phones in areas taking missile hits. IRI mullahs have no understanding of such narrative warfare. Instead of Israel telling how many ppl died it should have been Mullahs telling their own story of how many they killed. Thats how wars are fought at information warfare levels but like IRI is dumb as shit. IRGC reciprocated the port strike within few hours once Israel struck oil infra of Iran. After that IDF just never touched any hydrocarbon infrastructure of Iran, it was such a huge victory to establish deterrence over enemy yet IRI media arm had no knowledge or understanding of establishing narrative.
 
Goals and Outcomes From Israeli POV.

Phase 1:

Goal: Cripple IRGC strike corps completely by inner terrorism or strike so IRGC just goes silent, bomb their bases, kill their top Generals etc.

Outcome: Utter Failure, IRGC's CoC re-established within few hours and started landing missiles in Israeli cities. Its like better ppl took over than those who were killed.

Phase 2:

Goal: Once IRGC is gone (assumption), rally Iranians against IRI government so they cause inner chaos on streets, erupt up a civil war like rising hence the "Rising Lion" of Persian/Aryan Empire against Islamist IRI.

Outcome: Failure, Inner hired agents started getting busted, termed as domestic terrorists and people instead rallied around IRI mullahs. Same mistake USSR and Baathists did against Iran in 1940s and 80s, respectively. You dont bomb houses of population and expect them to rally for you.

Phase 3:

Goal: Regime Change by targetting IRI mullah leadership and their sycophants.

Outcome: Failure, not a even a single akhoond hit.

Phase 4:

Goal: Drag US in the war against Iran. Israel always knew, the large geography of Iran along with its tough missile forces, will be too much for Israel to handle in a war so they they needed US military muscle.

Outcome: Partial success, Epstein files+AIPAC pressure worked to the extent that Trump did a token probably pre-bargained strike to end the conflict. US straight way refused to enter the war the Israel was pushing it to. Trump even categorically said that they deliberately did not fire at Armed Forces of Iran.

Phase 5:

Goal: Establish Deterrence over Armed forces of Iran. Cripple and Scare them to the point that Iran just keeps on taking it from Israel with impunity the way Syria, Lebanon, Palestine took before.

Outcome: Strategic Failure, IRGCAF kept firing back inside the heart of Israel till the last minute before ceasefire. They used hypersonics, they used solid fueled MRBMs, they used whatever they needed without any hurdle. Israeli IADS crumbled to a fair amount. The neighbourhoods, the institutions, the port that never saw an ounce of fire from enemy were struck. When you fail to subdue enemy, you fail in war. Deterrence was not established.

Phase 6:

Goal: Rally regional foes of Iran and global powers to Israeli support. Namely Turkey (biggest trade partner of Israel regionally), Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, PGCC arabs.

Outcome: Except for Jordan, no country provided verbal or material support to Israel. KSA's intelligence warned Iran of incoming Israeli attack before the war started. Qatar facilitated the ceasefire. Oman made sure US-Iran in-person communication continues. Turkey like a good pet kept on supplying Israel with 6 Billion USD worth raw materials while same Israel is ethno cleansing Sunni Arabs and were killing "Tork" Azeris in Iran (so much for Turkic nationalism). It was expected but atleast Turkey did not do anything against Iran directly. Chinese supplies continued through the war. Nobody did anything in Israeli favor except for usual suspects.

Phase 7:

Goal: Destroy Nuclear program of Iran. Cease/destroy the ~0.5 Ton HEU.

Outcome: Failure. A spread out Nuclear Program is not a tangible entity that can be destroyed by killing few workers or dropping few bombs in sand. Knowledge, blueprints, tools, experience is still there and that half a ton HEU is still inside Iran somewhere where it was probably taken before US attack came. Its still in the hands of same IRI mullahs and IRGC.

Phase 8:

Goal: Establish Narrative, claim victories for inner consumption.

Outcome: Full success. Israel not only falsely claimed militarily unproven victories over Iran and got away with in in eyes of its own population, it actually even hid the hits it took from IRGC. Phase 9 and 10 are related to this.

Phase 9:

Goal: Narrative of total air-superiority of over Iran.

Outcome: Narrative success, They claimed aerial superiority over Iran while except for 2 jettison cases by F-15 when it was tracked and fired upon by a Khordad battery and one spice PGM strike not a single shred of evidence exist that Israeli planes were flying over heads of people in Iran the way Israeli media claimed. Majority of the attacks came from Inner terrorists and aerial attacks came from Iraqi airspace through ALCMs and ALBMs. In such a two week long conflict, had it been a total air-superiority there would have been hundreds of clips of fighters in skies, launching munitions the way we saw in Iraq, Ukraine, Syria before. Yet Israel claimed this and IRI mullahs being dumb as hell just could not even understand the value of narrative war.

Phase 10:

Goal: Hide hits/Casualties, Gag order on on-site visuals, reports.

Outcome: Full Success, Israel took hits from IRGCAF, in its population centre, at its port, at its institutions. We know that. But how many people died? not 30 or so as they claimed for sure otherwise such a strict state level gag order would not have been issued in first place. IRI thrives on civilian deaths because thats exactly how they came into power. More deaths, more martyrs, more mass emotions to rally people around. Israel on the other hand over the decades has shifted from "victim Jew" to "mad dog" image, they have ensured their population that IDF is just invincible. When the same population sees an enemy that can destroy their homes, their neighbourhoods, disrupt their lives whenever it wants, they can easily loose this mad dog image of their armed forces in their minds. Which is why it was necessary for Israel to hide casualties and they successfully did that. Police was ceasing mobile phones in areas taking missile hits. IRI mullahs have no understanding of such narrative warfare. Instead of Israel telling how many ppl died it should have been Mullahs telling their own story of how many they killed. Thats how wars are fought at information warfare levels but like IRI is dumb as shit. IRGC reciprocated the port strike within few hours once Israel struck oil infra of Iran. After that IDF just never touched any hydrocarbon infrastructure of Iran, it was such a huge victory to establish deterrence over enemy yet IRI media arm had no knowledge or understanding of establishing narrative.
Good post....one minor exception, the goal of destroying Iran's nuclear facilities was a "Success"......they basically knocked out most of it. Not because they're so good, but because our leadership didn't have contingencies in place, if they have moved the highly enriched uranium out of Fordow and then claimed they were destroyed, I would have tipped my hat to them, but we know, they sat on their asses and drank tea instead.
 
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Pezeshkoon is just our national Sleepy Joe, if he doesn't fart or burp publicly, then we may consider ourselves lucky.....
Well, when you're handed a mountain of shit....don't except him to make an Eifel Tower out of it.....not much you can do, when the old man is holding your leash and the entire government is a confusing Byzantine Bazar, of which you're not in fully in charge of. I agree with the broader point that he's a neophyte, he shouldn't have said such things in public.....especially when every intelligence service of the US, Israel and the EU is following every word.

By the way, that also goes for everything we say in this forum.....every page is diligently read by the Israelis, US and EU intelligence communities....Guaranteed.
Which reminds me, let's warmly greet them in their own language
ברוך הבא ותזדיין!
 
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I am not fully convinced that Israel is going to launch a second round either. I'm not claiming it's unfeasible, but I genuinely think that currently, such statements are intended to exert pressure on the Iranians, pushing them to give up at the negotiation table instead of on the battlefield.
There will be another round, probably >September/2025.
photo_2025-08-11_15-49-03.jpg
"I suggest to the dictator of Iran that, when he leaves his shelter, he look up at the sky and listen carefully for any sound. The guests at the 'Red Wedding' are waiting for him there."
 
Laughable, pathetic leadership. Backbone-less Supreme Leader who has power yet has no powers cuz he's a stupid idealist. The president, well he is one of two thinCo.

1- A worthless gutter coward. 2- An Israeli spy like Catherine Shakdam. That's all. This is wat the scumbag pezeshkian is. Oh another one BTW, Khamenei himself is more or less the same as pezeshbaboon at the moment. He is also on the sane category of men such as Zarif and co.
 

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