Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

I give up man, if you think Israel even spits without US's permission...then nothing I say can convince you. The entire ops was fronted by the CIA director plant that's an AIPAC appointment...but yeah, you can continue thinking Israel's regime change goal was not shared or approved by Washington. As far as the tweets, it's amazing we can both read the same thing and notice the time line and come away with 2 different takes. So, yeah US was afraid Iran would fail so bad that they wanted to keep the IRI intact, but they just wanted to kill all the heads of military for unrelated cause.

You are confusing two different things together.

The US greenlighted the Israeli attack on Iran and supported it militarily, but it did not participate in the regime change. There is no evidence that the US participated in or approved of the regime change either politically or militarily.

The arrangement of the US military assets in the Middle East, both then and now, is the best proof for the US unwillingness to participate in regime change. If they wanted to topple the Iranian regime, they would've brought at least 5 aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf and they would've prepared their troops to be deployed in Iran. We're talking about 200K soldiers at least. Israel cannot, and will never be able to deploy 200K soldiers in a foreign country 2,000 km away for invasion. Yet, the US has never done anything in this direction yet.

Your idea that it was oil prices that convinced the US not to go ahead with the plan is not based on anything real that actually happened. Oil prices peaked only $2-$3 above their price before the war. Nobody, not just me, but nobody considers that an oil shock.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

It has been almost two months since the cease fire .Below is my opinion what a realistic scenario looks like today and in the foreseeable future

based on open source :
Pre-war missile production
estimates were 50 per month

Post war-
Surge factor: 1.5×–2× increase is realistic if supply chains hold.
They could possibly double production to 100–120/month for several months if plants go 24/7 and stockpiles of materials are there .

Pre-war
Hypersonics: These are R&D-heavy and slow. At best maybe 6-10 month if everything is streamlined.

Post-war
12–15/month for maybe 3–4 months.
Longer term probably at 10-12 a month, unless support from (China, North Korea, Russia) fills in the gaps

Drones-
According to CSIS in a 90-day window, Iran could launch 600 to 5,000 Shahed drones.
Pre-war
500-1000
Post war production
1600-2000 per month

Air Defense -
We know it was poor but the next round will be much different.

To deal with drones and miniature cruise missiles:
Build dense SAM rings around Tehran, Natanz/Isfahan/ IRGC bases with Khordad‑15 / Raad / Talash

If ( I am doubtful) upgraded long‑range assets exist like more Bavar‑373 and replacement AD from China we could see shoot‑and‑scoot and multi‑engagement capacity and hopefully see downed manned air craft .

Improve early warning
Patch passive sensors with Ghadir/OTH radars . Deploy covert forces inside Iraq and in Syria.

Use more decoys and improve deception :
Move radars and SAMs more frequently to avoid detection by US sats , radiate less, use decoy emitters/launchers, and fall back on underground/covered sites

Offensive pressure:
If they are preparing, they should be able to launch 500-600 drones per day which will slow down the attacks and give Iranspace to launch 50-100 missiles per day, which is realistic, considering that they average 42 per day during the 12 day war.

The next round will be significantly more violent . If there’s any doubt from the axis of evil, Iran should use this opportunity to put the pedal to the floor with relentless build up of both offensive and defensive capabilities.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

very unrealistic..

I'd rather be interested in understanding factors that can cause collapse of the entire production capability!

nothing is linear, ever!

 

[Xerxes22]

Our bro @ShapurII is biased over his own standpoint.

Killing Iranian generals from intelligence point of view was a great success for Zionist front but Israel was strategically defeated eventually. The reason why USA stepped in to attack Iran's nuclear facility was Israel's inability to carry out the mission. Israel was badly defeated strategically. But tactically they achieved a few goals, i do not deny it.

Even USA's attack on Fordow was nothing more than a show. They dropped a bomb onto ventilation section of the facility which can be repaired in a blink of an eye.

Israel begged for a ceasefire. Again, i do not deny that Iran also needed that ceasefire.

People tend to forget even USAF failed to accurately target Yemen's radar sites by gliding and free fall bombs. They eventually had to use expensive air dropped anti-radar missiles for targeting Yemeni radar installations which was not that successful.

It is easy to nag all day and night but truth is, we are learning lessons after lessons in every operation.

Israel is strategically defeated? They bomb people left, right and center without any accountability. They begged for a ceasefire? I saw no begging and i saw Iran shamefully accepting the ceasefire. You think Imam Khomeini would accept a ceasefire?

Listen bro, I know what you stand for and I stand for the same thing. But we have to always be honest in our assessment of everything. That's what made us what we are in the first place. The truth is we under delivered during the war. The truth is, our leaders were shown to be spineless. And Khamenei was shown to be too old to be a leader of anything. A 90 yr old guy shud not be the leader of a nation.

Your statement that the attack on Fordow was nothing, was also quite sad. Did you go and see the site for urself? How do you know the damage could be repaired with a "blink". An attack is an attack. And what I find to be utterly humiliating is that whilst our nuclear installations were attacked the old fool Khamenei made sure Dimona remained unharmed. That is a big slap to our faces.

THAT ALONE IS A DEFEAT, LET ALONE ALL THE OTHER STUFF THAT HAPPENED.

Shame on the old fool Khamenei for accepting a ceasefire with the vile zionist regime.

 

[ShapurII]

Even USA's attack on Fordow was nothing more than a show. They dropped a bomb onto ventilation section of the facility which can be repaired in a blink of an eye.

See? This is where things start to get out of touch with reality.
The 12-day battle ended 55 days and counting, and Iran still hasn't been able to remove the debris and reach the site. In fact, satellite photos suggest that Iran has even given up on excavating. So, please do define your idea of "in a blink of an eye".

In my opinion, you can say that these facilities can be repaired in a blink of an eye when you can get there in a few days, at most one week. Not when you have failed to even access your most strategic nuclear site after nearly 2 months.

Israel begged for a ceasefire. Again, i do not deny that Iran also needed that ceasefire.

I wouldn't call it so. From day 1, Israel claimed that their war had been planned to last 2 weeks. We all were here. They had been fooled by pro-Pahlavi idiots that the Iranians would welcome the regime change, but other than that, they did succeed in destroying Iran's nuclear program by dragging the US into the war.
The financial damage of the 12-day battle on Iran has been huge, particularly after you consider how much Iran has lost under sanctions for that nuclear program.

People tend to forget even USAF failed to accurately target Yemen's radar sites by gliding and free fall bombs. They eventually had to use expensive air dropped anti-radar missiles for targeting Yemeni radar installations which was not that successful.

So, you're basically saying that those bunker buster bombs probably didn't enter the ventilation shafts at Fordow, right? OK. What's taking so long to get there then? Because if they haven't entered the shafts, the facility must be intact as GBU-57s cannot penetrate deep enough to damage Fordow otherwise.

It is easy to nag all day and night but truth is, we are learning lessons after lessons in every operation.

That's exactly my problem with you guys. You don't learn from your past mistakes. We still have people here who talk like you and say we don't need jet fighters because we can build them without even having a realistic time frame, or nuclear weapons do not give Iran deterrence when everyone else around the world and every patriot inside Iran disagree with that. It shows you have learned nothing.

People cannot wait another 20-25 years for you guys to probably learn some basic realities finally. Most people think you're just trying to stay in power at the expense of Iran to leech off Iranian resources and turn the country into a ruined, failed state.

 

[FUB]

The so-called inaccurate Iranian missiles.If we could see the damage from the 250+ missiles that supposedly fell into open fields.
Where is Mohsen Reyhani? Israel is great, and it is a tiny little country.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The so-called inaccurate Iranian missiles.If we could see the damage from the 250+ missiles that supposedly fell into open fields.
Where is Mohsen Reyhani? Israel is great, and it is a tiny little country.

one large building was hit and suddenly clowns celebrate the accuracy of Iran's missiles by ignoring every other missile that clearly missed the target by hundreds of metres across more than three large scale operations (TP-1, 2, 3)

 

[FUB]

one large building was hit and suddenly clowns celebrate the accuracy of Iran's missiles by ignoring every other missile that clearly missed the target by hundreds of metres across more three large scale operations

Clowns huh..
There you go again, showing your true colors and putting your thumb on the scale. I have yet to see similar photos from Iran. I am beginning to think Mohsen Reyhani is in this forum. Here is an image of the American strike on Natanz below. The Jaifa lucky strike is my favorite.

Israeli economy facing challenges as 12-day conflict with Iran leaves country with billions in economic losses

Mounting war expenses topping $12 billion and looming public finance challenges - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[ShapurII]

Clowns huh..
There you go again, showing your true colors and putting your thumb on the scale. I have yet to see similar photos from Iran. I am beginning to think Mohsen Reyhani is in this forum.

A lot of places in Tehran have been hit as well, particularly District 3. Some of them have been heavily damaged as well.
IRIB, Police headquarters in the Vanak Neighborhood, etc.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

This is for the people who exaggerate Israel's attacks on Iran while minimizing the Iranian response and the devastation caused by those magnificent Iranian missiles.

 

[FUB]

A lot of places in Tehran have been hit as well, particularly District 3. Some of them have been heavily damaged as well.
IRIB, Police headquarters in the Vanak Neighborhood, etc.

I know. This lucky strike is one of my favorites.
Where is Mohsen Reyhani? He must listen to the 18-second mark of the video.

 

[Immortals]

Where did all those delusional “Iran is so powerful Israel and America don’t dare touch iran” idiots run off too? Where did those Iran cheerleaders go? Funny how those that were accusing everyone of being secret Zionist spies are the first to disappear back to their European capitals.

since 2020 Iran has been systemically weakened and the deterrence it built 20 years ago has vanished. All for a nuclear program that gave it nothing in the end but cost trillions of dollars in lost income, opportunity, and brain drain.

Iran’s entire deterrence paradigm was built with Solemani as the puppet master and his death along with tens (if not hundreds) of his fellow generals/officers/associates lead to the collapse of IRGC in terms of capability.

I now firmly believe that Teherani Moghdams death in 2010 was not an accident but likely an Israeli internal strike team that used drone or spike missile to attack the missile storage facility and ignite a chain reaction (or maybe they had an inside man that planted explosives like in the Haniyeh IRGC compound assassination).

There were many signs that Iran had been completely infiltrated from Fakhrizadeh assassination to Haniyeh to other mysterious events to Raisi and Nasrallah.

October 2023 was Iran’s chance to fight a war for existential survival. Instead they elected Pezeshkian and watched as everyone besides the Houthi’s were destroyed.

Many on here still talk about resistance and are borderline delusional.

You don’t have an airforce, you don’t have a nuclear program, you don’t have an air defense network, you may not have many missiles left or TELs to operate them, you have an ongoing water crisis, and your economy is on life support. Russia and China have no interest in bailing you out because they always thought you would one day head back into Western orbit anyway.

Yet you think you can win? The enemy will continue to choke you off.

This little game you played for 25 years needs to conclude one way or another.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Clowns huh..
There you go again, showing your true colors and putting your thumb on the scale. I have yet to see similar photos from Iran. I am beginning to think Mohsen Reyhani is in this forum. Here is an image of the American strike on Natanz below. The Jaifa lucky strike is my favorite.

Israeli economy facing challenges as 12-day conflict with Iran leaves country with billions in economic losses

Mounting war expenses topping $12 billion and looming public finance challenges - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

image 1 shows a heavily damaged residential building, image 2 shows some damaged cars

image 3 shows precise damage to important buildings at the Natanz site

so you are off to a good start

 

[Persian Gulf]

Where did all those delusional “Iran is so powerful Israel and America don’t dare touch iran” idiots run off too? Where did those Iran cheerleaders go?

a lot of them are still here bragging about how accurate Iran's missiles are and how they forced Israel into submission. some people will always find a new way to cope and ignore reality.

 

[ShapurII]

I know. This lucky strike is one of my favorites.
Where is Mohsen Reyhani? He must listen to the 18-second mark of the video.

We used different missiles with different payloads and accuracy.
We did have some good hits for sure, but also had terrible hits as well.

Nevertheless, as I have said before, our missiles forces were the only part of our defense industry that met my expectations and helped us survive the first battle. Our drones, however, performed extremely poorly in terms of quantity and quality, way worse than what I imagined to be the case.

 

[ShapurII]

a lot of them are still here bragging about how accurate Iran's missiles are and how they forced Israel into submission. some people will always find a new way to cope and ignore reality.

Also, I don't get the point of the last image. What's that supposed to prove?
We fired an MRBM to destroy two oil tankers? And not oil tankers as in ships, but two vehicles. How much damage is that in total? $50K?