Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mangekyo]

Good post, IRI system is designed to be inherently dysfunctional where institutions are bound in their own places by illogical ideas and if they work, they are designed to clash with eachother. IRI is like USSR in this way. It and will continue producing Soleimani like individuals of brilliance but their efforts will always see the dark end of the tunnel because system itself is the hurdle towards progress. To fix it, the only option is to kiss the "IRI" goodbye but if we do that, Iran will become another post Baathist Iraq of today, a foreign controlled crippled nation. Only solution is change from within the system post Khamenei.

I actually agree with you. But there is simply no room to change it from within anymore. And we are about 100 years too late for a new Reza Shah figure to take matters into his own hands. Anyone who tried today would face massive international pressure and end up just as isolated and alienated as IRI has become. And under the chaos he would create, the west would use the opportunity to destroy us completely.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

 

[Persian Gulf]

This news should be posted in the Iranian missile thread

In any case, this is an unique Iranian technology:
a missile with a rocket engine that operates without fuel

Some people suggest it is Iran’s quantum technology that has been tested

this is an AI video designed to fool idiots

don't be one of those idiots

this was MoD test launch of Zoljanah, nothing to do with IRGC. so that twitter account is fake as well, we already know the IRGC does not have a twitter account.

 

[Persian Gulf]

interesting: while Russia/China cannot block the reimposition of UNSC resolutions against Iran, they can block the operational mechanics of UNSC monitoring/enforcement of these sanctions, since those committees can be vetoed. meaning the sanctions will remain on paper only and will struggle to be enforced.

 

[ToddE]

I actually agree with you. But there is simply no room to change it from within anymore. And we are about 100 years too late for a new Reza Shah figure to take matters into his own hands. Anyone who tried today would face massive international pressure and end up just as isolated and alienated as IRI has become. And under the chaos he would create, the west would use the opportunity to destroy us completely.

Problem IRI has created is that in their decades long useless rhetoric against global Zios and Israel, they have cemented the Iran as a anti Jew entity in eyes of Jew controlled West. So yes even if IRI or post IRI Iran retreats back from this stupid illogical policy, Zios and their controlled west will not allow Iran to rise up again for as long as they can. Its just like how Japan and Germany are not allowed to return to their power status. Post USSR Russia was kept under thumb for as long as it was possible, Look at Post Baathist Iraq.

Ayatollah donedamage to Iran is permanent for generations and generations. Best Iran can manage is that post Khamenei, a cunning nationalist leadership shows up that plays cozy to world powers equally, but secretly they keep on strengthening the nation to the point that it becomes powerful enough to look for its own. It will take 15 years atleast. I am talking about 1/10th of original GDP, obsolete military, sanctions in name of Arabs, non-united nation etc, they will have to work from this bottom stage to above.

 

[mangekyo]

Best Iran can manage is that post Khamenei, a cunning nationalist leadership shows up that plays cozy to world powers equally, but secretly they keep on strengthening the nation to the point that it becomes powerful enough to look for its own.

That is exactly what the Shah did, and they are not going to fall for the same thing again. There is no guarantee that once Iran gets strong, it won’t pursue its own foreign policy again, and they know it. They simply won’t allow it.

In my opinion, our fate is no longer in our own hands. The only thing that could save us now is some massive distraction, a natural disaster, a global crisis, divine intervention, whatever you want to call it, something that takes attention away from us completely for a decade or two and gives us the chance to quietly rebuild.

And even then, it would only work if some truly authoritarian, Reza Shah-like figure (or group of figures) emerged at the same time to take charge. Because IRI is not going to fix itself. As we’ve already discussed, the system was designed this way, and reforms aren’t going to cut it.

It’s very unlikely, but sometimes, history surprises us, and impossible things do happen.

 

[kastor ville]

Good post, IRI system is designed to be inherently dysfunctional where institutions are bound in their own places by illogical ideas and if they work, they are designed to clash with eachother. IRI is like USSR in this way. It and will continue producing Soleimani like individuals of brilliance but their efforts will always see the dark end of the tunnel because system itself is the hurdle towards progress. To fix it, the only option is to kiss the "IRI" goodbye but if we do that, Iran will become another post Baathist Iraq of today, a foreign controlled crippled nation. Only solution is change from within the system post Khamenei.

That's basically what I said....Khamenei needs to be removed from political power...I said he should relegated to a spiritual role only. To answer the other posters question, how are we going to do it? First let people run for office...whoever it maybe, let the people decide who they want as president...second, let the president decide on policy, not the Supreme leader or the IRGC. With those two in the bag..you move on to reforming other institutions.. judiciary, intelligence..etc
I never said it was going to be easy....it's a hard pill to swallow, but if they really are patriots then they can see this system is being chocked slowly...if they don't do it, it will be done for them...and most of them will be tried and executed or jailed...it's better if they become the solution rather than the face of the problem.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

this is an AI video designed to fool idiots

Who said we have set cameras in space to capture videos from our ICBM?!!!

don't be one of those idiots

You're a rude person and without consequences you insult everyone you wish

Indirectly you insult members here(including me)
You insult our generals, militants, parliament members etc... on daily basis

 

[mangekyo]

That's basically what I said....Khamenei needs to be removed from political power...I said he should relegated to a spiritual role only. To answer the other posters question, how are we going to do it? First let people run for office...whoever it maybe, let the people decide who they want as president...second, let the president decide on policy, not the Supreme leader or the IRGC. With those two in the bag..you move on to reforming other institutions.. judiciary, intelligence..etc
I never said it was going to be easy....it's a hard pill to swallow, but if they really are patriots then they can see this system is being chocked slowly...if they don't do it, it will be done for them...and most of them will be tried and executed or jailed...it's better if they become the solution rather than the face of the problem.

I get your point completely. But my question is: how is that actually going to happen?

How and who's going to “remove Khamenei from political power” and turn him into a symbolic figure? Who is going to allow free elections and let people truly run for office? Who is going to stop the IRGC from interfering in policy when they are one of the main power centers that benefits from the current setup?

It’s not that I disagree with you. I just genuinely don’t see the mechanism. The system isn’t built to reform itself in such a fundamental way, and I haven’t seen anyone explain how these changes could realistically be forced through from within.

 

[kastor ville]

I get your point completely. But my question is: how is that actually going to happen?

How and who's going to “remove Khamenei from political power” and turn him into a symbolic figure? Who is going to allow free elections and let people truly run for office? Who is going to stop the IRGC from interfering in policy when they are one of the main power centers that benefits from the current setup?

It’s not that I disagree with you. I just genuinely don’t see the mechanism. The system isn’t built to reform itself in such a fundamental way, and I haven’t seen anyone explain how these changes could realistically be forced through from within.

Ok...did Rouhani and Larijani criticize the Guardian council? They said people who are unelected should not decide who can run for office or not. So, if we had people from within the system speaking up then there is a chance of reform happening...once the Guardian council is dissolved then we can move to the 2nd stage. Now, you ask why would they allow it? Well they would allow it because if they don't they may have an insurrection on their hand or worse... If the insurrectionists win those people who didn't want to reform will have to leave Iran....because the people will be looking to try them, jail them, or worse. So, the answer to why they would do it is that they need to do it for their own survival. Do you know what I mean? If they continue on this road...the IRI will slowly die, the people will get angrier every year, till it spills over into the street...then they become fugitives. Can you imagine what would happen to those judges? What would happen to Basij commanders? You know what will happen to them.
So in my mind, they need to reform to save themselves.

 

[kastor ville]

interesting: while Russia/China cannot block the reimposition of UNSC resolutions against Iran, they can block the operational mechanics of UNSC monitoring/enforcement of these sanctions, since those committees can be vetoed. meaning the sanctions will remain on paper only and will struggle to be enforced.

Fantastic news....but is there a chance this could really happen? Do they have the will to do this? I certainly hope so

 

[mangekyo]

Ok...did Rouhani and Larijani criticize the Guardian council? They said people who are unelected should not decide who can run for office or not. So, if we had people from within the system speaking up then there is a chance of reform happening...once the Guardian council is dissolved then we can move to the 2nd stage. Now, you ask why would they allow it? Well they would allow it because if they don't they may have an insurrection on their hand or worse... If the insurrectionists win those people who didn't want to reform will have to leave Iran....because the people will be looking to try them, jail them, or worse. So, the answer to why they would do it is that they need to do it for their own survival. Do you know what I mean? If they continue on this road...the IRI will slowly die, the people will get angrier every year, till it spills over into the street...then they become fugitives. Can you imagine what would happen to those judges? What would happen to Basij commanders? You know what will happen to them.
So in my mind, they need to reform to save themselves.

I see what you mean, but there are so many conditions that would all need to line up.

The way I see it, Khamenei would have to voluntarily step down or die, and a new Supreme Leader who is genuinely reformist would have to be chosen. Someone like Rouhani. That would open the door to dismantling the Guardian Council and allowing real reforms.

IRGC have to accept losing most of their power and agree to stay loyal to a reformist Supreme Leader.

I agree with you that survival instinct can push elites to act, but historically, authoritarian regimes wait too long. And we’re not just politically fragile, we’re broke, weak, and already facing environmental disasters, water shortages, electricity blackouts, and growing security issues. On top of that, we might even face a new war soon. And we can’t ignore the oligarchs who control the economy and profit from sanctions-busting, along with the corrupt thugs in high positions who have been stealing our oil wealth and state resources for decades. For them, the current system is their survival and avoiding jail. Real reform would not only strip their power but likely expose them to prosecution. And they are not just businessmen, they are power brokers, politicians, clerics and military figures

And even if these reforms actually happen, we have no leverage against U.S. sanctions, so there’s no guarantee they would be lifted.

 

[Immortals]

interesting: while Russia/China cannot block the reimposition of UNSC resolutions against Iran, they can block the operational mechanics of UNSC monitoring/enforcement of these sanctions, since those committees can be vetoed. meaning the sanctions will remain on paper only and will struggle to be enforced.

When did Trump exit JCPOA? Since then how much money have Russia/China invested in Iran?

If they didn’t invest when sanctions didn’t exist, no amount of legal loopholes will convince them or their private sector to invest in Iran post SnapBack.

 

[StrategicBear]

Yes, you're absolutely right.
China will eventually surpass the US in science, economy and technology, but it is the US soft power that will help them maintain their hegemony.

China vs the US is like a high school where the US is a rich, tall and muscular kid who gets top school grades but is also extroverted and quite popular and is seen as super cool, while China is the nerd of the class that is a close second or sometimes even the best but has few friends and is introverted.

The main power of the West is not its military machine, it is its soft power. And that's going to stay with us for a long time. Probably more than 30 years. Not to mention that the US controls the internet, and China cannot compete with that. US controls our data and digital fingerprint, but China, not so much.

But even so, the future of the West looks increasingly Less White when more Muslims and Minorities increase in population in the UK, France and USA over the next 30 years and "becomes part of the ruling government".

 

[kastor ville]

I see what you mean, but there are so many conditions that would all need to line up.

The way I see it, Khamenei would have to voluntarily step down or die, and a new Supreme Leader who is genuinely reformist would have to be chosen. Someone like Rouhani. That would open the door to dismantling the Guardian Council and allowing real reforms.

IRGC have to accept losing most of their power and agree to stay loyal to a reformist Supreme Leader.

I agree with you that survival instinct can push elites to act, but historically, authoritarian regimes wait too long. And we’re not just politically fragile, we’re broke, weak, and already facing environmental disasters, water shortages, electricity blackouts, and growing security issues. On top of that, we might even face a new war soon. And we can’t ignore the oligarchs who control the economy and profit from sanctions-busting, along with the corrupt thugs in high positions who have been stealing our oil wealth and state resources for decades. For them, the current system is their survival and avoiding jail. Real reform would not only strip their power but likely expose them to prosecution. And they are not just businessmen, they are power brokers, politicians, clerics and military figures

And even if these reforms actually happen, we have no leverage against U.S. sanctions, so there’s no guarantee they would be lifted.

All of what you said is true.....but, we will see if they have the intelligence to save themselves or not. Either way, they're dead meat...it just hasn't dawn on them yet.
The Israelis and the Americans, along with the Europeans have it in for them....they're coming, whether they realize it or not....and they will keep pressuring the poor Iranian population till they rise up. So, again if they're smart and they want to save themselves they need to reform.......or the US/Israel will do it for them.