Ali_Baba
VIP Member
If Russia could actually manufacture enough SU-57s, then they make more sense for Iran than J10CE as the partial stealth nature of the platform and range have more value to Irans needs.
Iranian Air Force (IRIAF/IRGC-ASF) | News and Discussions
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If Russia could actually manufacture enough SU-57s, then they make more sense for Iran than J10CE as the partial stealth nature of the platform and range have more value to Irans needs.
sahureka2
Registered Member
he forgot about Algeria
tsunset
The Legend
China will not sell anything to Iran due to fear of western sanctions, any sale to Iran means forcibly incoming sanctions for the exportator
If they accepted to sell to Iran, IRIAF right now would be flying dozens and dozens of J-10C, JF-17, Su-30/35 and possibly MiG-31 with its whole MiG-29 and Su-24 fleet upgraded to M2 standard, possible production line inside Iran
The second problem is Iran lacks liquidity and hopes to buy them using crude oil to pay a part of the order, something which Russia and China are not interested in
Meanwhile countries like Algeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, India gets accepted and delivered in not even years, Iran has to get a lottery ticket that allows them to buy from Russia or China
ToddE
Trusted Member
I would call it naivety if someone thinks that Russia will just start providing 5th generation planes to Iran. Just like the United States, EU, or China, the Russians use their defense industry as a tool to project strategic power over client allied states and Iran is a strategic competitor of Russia not some ally as it seems from the outside. its proven by the fact that they never armed Iran in bulk when they could have. If you remember, Rafsanjani wanted to purchase hundreds of 4th generation Mig-29, Mig-31 in 1990-92. How many did Russia give to Iran despite the payments? So if you think that Russia would be providing 5th generation light aircraft to Iran just like that, then that's not going to happen. Although I do not believe this to be happening because of Trump-Admin being sympathetic to Russia, Post-Ukraine war Russia, probably, can be cornered by Iran into a position where they are forced to provide Iran with something meaningful. I mean, there are many possible leverages, even bigger ones than the defense industry. Oil market is one in which Russia and Iran actually compete, Russia will not want to allow Iran to present itself as an alternative if another deal is cut with US in longer terms. Its always the Russians (and Chinese) who gain the most benefit from Iranian-US tension. There is another way that I see more likely to happen. The Iranian military-industrial complex is expanding in all directions. It's getting more battle-hardened now with experience, design teams are getting trained to compete against western foes tech daily. This military-industrial complex has provided Russia with the needed weaponry although not at the level that was expected. So, if Iran can put this military-industrial complex in front of Russia in a strategic partnership deal that in case of further elongated conflicts in the future, instead of relying upon Belorussia or North Korea, Iran can be the one safe industrial backer that Russia will need. Only this way, we can corner Russia into providing us with critical 5th generation TOT. Remember, this is kinda already happening. SU-35S, YAK-130 are reportedly not being purchased with cash, they are being purchased with barter deals. So, my point is already valid. What the Iranian problem is and what most people do not understand is that this is an uncontrolled country. It has no foreign or external involvement for a simple reason. It has no foreign bulk loans so it can't be controlled by superpowers. We, unfortunately, are surrounded in our geography by nations that are controlled from the outside just because of financial inflows. This is one of the reasons that we are not armed by these powers in the name of strategic alliances, which are just strategic tools to control client states. So, believing that 5th generation technology will just come to Iran from Russia will be naivety in my opinion.
Saying that, what I can see happening is that key technologies that actually define manned combat aviation, can be purchased from Russia through TOTs against barter deals. TOT of turbofans is a huge problem, another key tech that I have yet to see in Iran, even though officials have claimed SAIRAN making them, is airborne AESA radars. Iran makes grounds, naval ones but I have yet to see any evidence of airborne AESA. Light LR-BVR is another tech to chase, Iran has achieved heavy LR-BVR Fakour-90 but we need lighter BVR in the generation of Meteor. So, this kind of techs can be obtained from Russia for a local TOT. We can not rely upon these foreign-built airframes because anytime the spare parts supply is cut by the actual producer, the entire CKD assembly line is put to a halt and the fleet is resting in storage or tarmac.
I already posted what I think of the missile program of Iran. It is a very strong deterrent, yes, it is battle-proven now as well against one of the world's strongest foe. Israel is no poor third world nation and IRGACF has punished it twice. But it has only bought us time. Just like building an air force around 4th generation planes or MALE/HALE UCAVs is just gonna buy us time because defense tech is evolving very quickly with AI and changing industrialization techniques. While we will be focusing on 4+ generation planes, our foes like Israel or NATO will be moving towards 5+ and 6th generation in the next 10 years. Think of something in SR-72 class or even more upgraded F-35.
I don't know why you are mentioning J-85 or Kowsar in the same sentence as flankers or 5th generation planes. Current Iranian domestic or indigenous capability is limited to a 4.0 gen light CAP fighter to operate within the IADF. Maybe it can play an e-Warfare and Datalinking role to control the drones or connect with the IADS network. I don't see any other utility considering our large geography which is why I feel they should have already be done with the program to put them in IADS hands and call it a closure. They kept on adding useless modern tech/avionics etc to increase the cost and the program got messed up. We need high KE air-superiority fighters with long ranges, low RCS, high MTOW etc because our battle zones will be beyond the borders of Iran in PG or Iraqi airspace. Nobody (except US) is entering Iran because of strong IADS as proven by the current Israel stunt. I don't agree with your UCAV idea because Iranian attack capabilities are constantly evolving with modern most weaponry. If Iranian missiles can land in Israel, beating Iron Dome, Patriots, David's Sling, Arrow system and whatnot, then what are we worried for currently? We need powerful air superiority manned planes in the category of SU-35S or ideally, SU-57 to deal with enemies outside Iran.
I think the Air Force was neglected initially because of Noujeh Coup. The leadership never trusted the Shahi origin IRIAF. Later on, it became a sacrificial lamb to fund the IRGC missiles, SLVs, AD, UCAVs, navy etc. As iran got involved in wars the arming of proxies stretched the budget even further so what started as a political problem turned into a real management issue over the years. So even when 3rd or 4th generation tech ingredients existed in Iran already such as Turbojets, FBW, PESA, LRBVR, HOBS WVR, e-warfare suits, SOWs etc Iranian aviation industry never received the focus like other branches. The mismanagement and will of the leadership have been the problems. With this ~35 billion USD budget, they can probably fix the mistake they made.
Flotilla
Trusted Member
Don't pay that much attention to rumors on international air shows. Military always visit differents aircrafts and manufacturers. Right now Su35 and J16 are the bests combat aircrafts for Iran. Those are long range multirole combat aircrafts and are avaiable for international purchase. But Su57 would need at least 6 years to be avaiable. Probably even it is possible to make some indigenization of some systems, like IFF, data link or ECM. Something that probably are not possible in Su57 as this aircraft require a extensive integration between avionics, sensors and subsystems, and that means change all software of sensors, avionics and combat management. It is so crazy expensive that few countries can indigenize 5 gen aircraft
ToddE
Trusted Member
China will never provide anything meaningful to Iran.
Chinese doctrine of arming countries is based upon their strategic goal of establishing absolute financial control over them turning them into client or satellite states just like the dominating vendor controlling the client kind of relationship between US and EU in the name of NATO. Iran is just not the dog they can whistle up. Same with Russia.
Freedom has a price.
Shadihassan28
Registered Member
That’s basically almost
the truth not going to knock Pakistan because I actually like the if 17 and hopefully future models are 100 percent Pakistani tech or a joint Muslim effort but China tends to put their hands into every part of a country and those agreements tend to be long term with very little going back into a countries economy and being heavily indebted to China.In a perfect world Muslim/Arab countries would be united not be beholden to west/East because in reality if we gave up shallow prejudices we would be stronger than all of the superpowers combined I mean come on we are so divided we can’t even stop Israel a tiny ass country from butchering Palestinians when off topic my bad but still true
Awwad
Registered Member
Why would China do that?
They have tremendous production capabilities and now advancing in most technologies rapidly. They are the only nation to have their own space station. They'd be a great fool to intentionally turn states into client states as World is not blind. Other countries will not do business with them if that's their intent is. On the contrary they want to do business with the whole world. I don't see why China would shoot itself in the foot for a petty benefit and won't see a larger picture. A good businessman (which China wants to become and already is in many ways) provides good services that other customers (countries) can also see and can take benefit from.
China and Iran's defense collaboration of high tech weaponary isn't happening not because China wants to make Iran a client state. It's not happening because of various other reasons. First hindrance is the sanctions. Iran is under sanctions and selling it advance weapons always carry the risk of sanctions to the seller country. China is looking buyers in GCC countries ( Which can pay in Dollars and which are currently users of american weapons)., UAE bought UCAVs and L-15 jet trainers, KSA is also buying stuff, so China will have to do risk assessment and see if the deal would really be beneficial for itself. Russia on other hand is already under sanctions, so it really not matter to Russia if it does military weapons sale to Iran or NK. All these countries are facing worst sanctions, so them to collaborate together is natural as theirs not many other options anyways.
Lastly, despite Pakistan buying lots of stuff from China, the military establishment of Pakistan (the ones who basically controls the govt) are always inclined to United States. Also China is not arming anyone. Pakistan is buying stuff. however China offers to buy that via installments. Pakistan and China's military cooperation started when China itself wasn't very much advance. Many joint projects which are bearing fruits today started way back. Today China will not want to do joint projects anymore.
ToddE
Trusted Member
That’s basically almost
In a perfect world Muslim/Arab countries would be united not be beholden to west/East because in reality if we gave up shallow prejudices we would be stronger than all of the superpowers combined I mean come on we are so divided we can’t even stop Israel a tiny ass country from butchering Palestinians when off topic my bad but still true
No one outside the big powers (Western and a few Far Eastern) truly makes modern fighter planes. CKD assembly or TOT is not actually "making" the plane. These old players control the market (and end users/buyers) of the critical most technologies involved in manned combat aviation.
Thumb rule: look for where the engines, combat suites etc are coming from directly or who owned the initial most patent+production rights and you will get the answer of who owns the plane.
...........
I do not have anything against the Chinese. They have their own strategic doctrine of creating a group of client/satellite states they can dominate (A) Financially through replacing western cash creditors (B) Militarily by replacing the western vendorship. This aint a political thread otherwise I can provide numbers of some countries they are dominating now through this policy. Many authors believe this to be influenced by Cold War era US policy of controlling finances and military which they implemented in EU, far east etc. Chinese are no different. Each to their own, Iran needs to act smart now that it's playing a geostrategic role.
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Shadihassan28
Registered Member
Yeah my only point is many of these countries if they got together instead of investing trillions collectively for inferior products could have developed into a true powerhouse collective but just stating the obvious that we all know but corrupt and prejudice “leaders” keeps us down as a collective
ToddE
Trusted Member
Chinese products are by no means inferior. They are a superpower although much below US/NATO but catching up steadily.
Most of the Islamic world is made of client/satellite nations being run on loans by creditors (superpowers) and, hence are controlled from outside. Do you want Iran with 0% foriegn debt to work with Turkey that has 47% Jew debt? Then people ask why Turkey is supplying bulk raw materials to Israel doing ethnic genocides on Muslims. Why Arab Egypt can't save Arab Gazans just across the border ? because half of Egypt is owned by outsider powers. Iran is surrounded by such client states being run on Jew/Anglo and now Sino cash. People are not to be blamed, they have no power. Like I said before freedom has a price that us Iranians have been paying for last 45 years.
Coming back to the topic, Iranian leadership made a terrible mistake by just giving up on domestic IRIAF programs completely by budget cuts despite having the industrial capacity. Yes IADS, Missile programs, Drones etc got modernized but they lost the balance somewhere. Its a blessing in disguise that they are re-entering the game right when the world is transitioning into 5th generation manned combat aviation. I say they should put a halt after SU-35S inclusion and by hook or by crook, bribe/blackmail/steal whoever they can but get the air-superiority 5th generation manned combat airframe TOT inside Iran. SU-57 is the plane to chase IMO.
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Shadihassan28
Registered Member
No all countries sell inferior products to the original product worse when you compare American sold military weapons that are sold to friendly rich oil nations to Israel but yeah export versions from any country tend to be inferior
ToddE
Trusted Member
offcourse, the export versions are downgraded. Russia according to journalistic sources was not allowing Iran R-37 and Khibiny ECM pods but they are now coming for whatever the deal has now become.
Also, nothing of any true strategic nature is ever given to client states unless the client state's role needs that.
Navid09
Registered Member
Russia Confirms First Su-57 Export Deal Already Signed: Expanding Production Could Allow Quick Deliveries
An unnamed foreign client has already signed its first contract with Russian state run arms export conglomerate Rosoboronexport to acquire Su-57 fifth generation
militarywatchmagazine.com
Is there a small chance this could be Iran?
ToddE
Trusted Member
Russia Confirms First Su-57 Export Deal Already Signed: Expanding Production Could Allow Quick Deliveries
An unnamed foreign client has already signed its first contract with Russian state run arms export conglomerate Rosoboronexport to acquire Su-57 fifth generation
Is there a small chance this could be Iran?
It seems like China as Russia will try hard to keep China in the defense partnership loop post Trump enforced Ukraine-Russia ceasefire. Also, China for whatever reason keeps chasing Russian planes of the same generation they manufacture at home. They imported SU-27UBK, SU-30MKK/MK2, SU-35S all when local flankers were in active production.
Iran has a slim but existent chance. Yak-130 have arrived and some semi-reliable OSINT sources have been claiming of SU-35S CKD arrival as well. If Russia has actually provided its most potent fighter jets to Iran below the 5th generation already then jumping from 4+ to 5th generation does not seem like a big stretch.
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