I think last night we found out that a vast major of Iran’s older missiles are cannon fodder against ABM shields even in salvo situations.
As I said a few weeks ago the lack of successful strikes by Houthi’s during Red Sea operations using BM and also CM was a cause for concern. Many didn’t agree with that assessment. I pointed out Iran’s C-802 naval missiles are likely no longer competitive.
However, even I assumed salvos of 60 missiles x 2 would break thru at a better rate than 1-5%. I have to say I’m suprised at the intial intercept success rate. I figured given a salvos of 100+ missiles at least 30%-40% would make it thru.
While Iran can attempt to wear an enemy down with war of attrition using missiles to either bankrupt the enemy or make them run out of munitions (Russian strategy), there are likely more efficient methods to take in the future.
Instead of building 10 Ghadr, it makes more sense for Iran to focus in the future on 2 Fattah 1 or one Fattah 2.
Hypersonics, skip trajectory, and other more advanced BMs should be the focus. Also green lighting the Mobin stealth CM project and other LO CM is needed.
Lastly I have called for a supersonic reusable bomber class drone (Mach 2+) in the light of Cold War era Lockheed D-21 drone inspiration.
The good news is this attack helped wake up the establishment in IRGC with ALOT of real world data against western BMD.
