Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Will Iran attack tonight?



An American official told Al Jazeera:



There is a high probability that Iran will attack Israel in the early hours of tomorrow, Sunday.



Israel Defense Forces:



Following a situational assessment, it has been determined that changes will be made to the Home Front Command's defense directives from 11pm tonight (IST).



As part of the changes, it was decided to ban educational activities throughout Israel. In green areas, gatherings will be limited to 1,000 people.


Israel army :



All forces are on full alert, dozens of planes are in the air as part of preparations for the Iranian threat.



Jordan closed its airspace



The Jordanian Aviation Regulatory Authority announced that it has closed its airspace to all incoming, outgoing and transiting aircraft from tonight.



Netanyahu's escape to the shelter of the Zionist billionaire



Zionist sources claimed that Prime Minister Netanyahu spent the weekend with his wife at the home of Zionist billionaire Simon Falik.



Because Falik's house is equipped with an advanced anti-missile shelter, Netanyahu and his wife have decided to spend their weekend vacations at this Zionist billionaire's house for fear of Iran's possible reaction and the risk of a missile attack.



Major disruptions to GPS systems are underway in Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Syria and Lebanon.



Cyber attack on Israel's National Electricity Distribution Authority (IEC).



The cyber avengers group took responsibility for power cuts in various parts of the occupied territories, including the cities of Beit Shamsh, Tel Aviv, Rosh Ha'in, Arad, Modi'in, Beer Shua, Netanya, etc.
 
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Alright i will stay there for news, the other thread is infested with hasbara posts and fake news/alarms
 


What are the downsides to launching preemptive strikes now that they have declared their intention to attack us? Why wait for them to prepare and attack?
 
Last edited:
mangekyo said:


What are the downsides to launching preemptive strikes now that they have declared their intention to attack us? Why wait for them to prepare and attack?
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the news could be bluster and it's not clear what the pre-emptive strike would aim to achieve other than to ensure Israel really does respond
 
I think last night we found out that a vast major of Iran’s older missiles are cannon fodder against ABM shields even in salvo situations.

As I said a few weeks ago the lack of successful strikes by Houthi’s during Red Sea operations using BM and also CM was a cause for concern. Many didn’t agree with that assessment. I pointed out Iran’s C-802 naval missiles are likely no longer competitive.

However, even I assumed salvos of 60 missiles x 2 would break thru at a better rate than 1-5%. I have to say I’m suprised at the intial intercept success rate. I figured given a salvos of 100+ missiles at least 30%-40% would make it thru.

While Iran can attempt to wear an enemy down with war of attrition using missiles to either bankrupt the enemy or make them run out of munitions (Russian strategy), there are likely more efficient methods to take in the future.

Instead of building 10 Ghadr, it makes more sense for Iran to focus in the future on 2 Fattah 1 or one Fattah 2.

Hypersonics, skip trajectory, and other more advanced BMs should be the focus. Also green lighting the Mobin stealth CM project and other LO CM is needed.

Lastly I have called for a supersonic reusable bomber class drone (Mach 2+) in the light of Cold War era Lockheed D-21 drone inspiration.

The good news is this attack helped wake up the establishment in IRGC with ALOT of real world data against western BMD.
 
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Immortals said:
I think last night we found out that a vast major of Iran’s older missiles are cannon fodder against ABM shields even in salvo situations.

As I said a few weeks ago the lack of successful strikes by Houthi’s during Red Sea operations using BM and also CM was a cause for concern. Many didn’t agree with that assessment. I pointed out Iran’s C-802 naval missiles are likely no longer competitive.

However, even I assumed salvos of 60 missiles x 2 would break thru at a better rate than 1-5%. I have to say I’m suprised at the intial intercept success rate. I figured given a salvos of 100+ missiles at least 30%-40% would make it thru.

While Iran can attempt to wear an enemy down with war of attrition using missiles to either bankrupt the enemy or make them run out of munitions (Russian strategy), there are likely more efficient methods to take in the future.

Instead of building 10 Ghadr, it makes more sense for Iran to focus in the future on 2 Fattah 1 or one Fattah 2.

Hypersonics, skip trajectory, and other more advanced BMs should be the focus. Also green lighting the Mobin stealth CM project and other LO CM is needed.

Lastly I have called for a supersonic reusable bomber class drone (Mach 2+) in the light of Cold War era Lockheed D-21 drone inspiration.

The good news is this attack helped wake up the establishment in IRGC with ALOT of real world data against western BMD.
Click to expand...
valid points but also:
  • this was Israel's peak ABM shield
  • this was Israel's peak preparedness
  • Israel was given 8+ hours warning with the UAVs, future strikes could lead with MRBMs giving <10 minutes warning
  • no subsequent MRBM waves
Iran's strikes were also spread across Negev, West Bank, north Israel and Golan Heights. if all c. 100 BMs were targeted at one part of Israel we would naturally likely see more successful impacts

any wave of 100 MRBMs at one part of Israel, followed up with another wave of 100 MRBMs within 30 minutes would arrive in Israel before they could reload ABMs (Arrow reload time is 1 hour), I say that second wave would have >50% success rate (vs 5-10% for first wave)

so if Iran wanted to cause mass destruction, that was the path. but we know that wasn't the objective. maybe it will be next time
 
Persian Gulf said:
valid points but also:
  • this was Israel's peak ABM shield
  • this was Israel's peak preparedness
  • Israel was given 8+ hours warning with the UAVs, future strikes could lead with MRBMs giving <10 minutes warning
  • no subsequent MRBM waves
Iran's strikes were also spread across Negev, West Bank, north Israel and Golan Heights. if all c. 100 BMs were targeted at one part of Israel we would naturally likely see more successful impacts
Click to expand...

When you fire 110 BMs and have less then 10 or 5 missiles make it thru, the effectiveness of your main deterrence comes in to long term viability.

Thus transitioning to more difficult to intercept BMs should be the priority. Quality over quantity.

Persian Gulf said:
any wave of 100 MRBMs at one part of Israel, followed up with another wave of 100 MRBMs within 30 minutes would arrive in Israel before they could reload ABMs (Arrow reload time is 1 hour), I say that second wave would have >50% success rate (vs 5-10% for first wave)
Click to expand...

They fired 110 in at least 2-3 waves. ABM shield held up very well.

Sure after 5-7 days it’s possible that the shield strains especially if Iran goes after the systems. Which I don’t believe they went after any ABM system launchers or radars.

Persian Gulf said:
so if Iran wanted to cause mass destruction, that was the path. but we know that wasn't the objective. maybe it will be next time
Click to expand...

We shall see what that Israeli response is. If the next Iranian attack largely performs like this, Iran should pivot to what the battlefield performance data is saying.

I’m just glad Iran has real life battlefield performance data of a mass salvo. Because I know there are those in IRGC prior to last night who doubted the ABM shield of Israel and Western nations and didn’t think they could perform against 15-20+ missiles at once let alone 110 missiles.
 
Anyways the response still surprised all of us and i think took even them by surprise (the magnitude of the retaliation)

If Israel does bombing runs on Iran, just test a nuke and retaliate massively after taking their flaws into account, but we should remind that still one or two dozen of BMs hit a target

I still don't call that a bad performance, this was Irans first time against those systems, they did an effective method using no more than 50-100million on it, and targets were hit and a strong message was sent

Israelis could very well go against civilian targets only, they are capable of it, bombing a country solely for killing people
 
Immortals said:
When you fire 110 BMs and have less then 10 or 5 missiles make it thru, the effectiveness of your main deterrence comes in to long term viability.

Thus transitioning to more difficult to intercept BMs should be the priority. Quality over quantity.
Click to expand...
the point is Iran could have taken easy steps likely to increase that c. 5-10% success rate, so it shouldn't be so worrying (yet)

Immortals said:
They fired 110 in at least 2-3 waves. ABM shield held up very well.

Sure after 5-7 days it’s possible that the shield strains especially if Iran goes after the systems. Which I don’t believe they went after any ABM system launchers or radars.
Click to expand...
that's overall not a huge number considering how dispersed the strikes were. the more interesting question is how many ABM interceptors Israel used to intercept c. 100 MRBMs.

Immortals said:
We shall see what that Israeli response is. If the next Iranian attack largely performs like this, Iran should pivot to what the battlefield performance data is saying.

I’m just glad Iran has real life battlefield performance data of a mass salvo. Because I know there are those in IRGC prior to last night who doubted the ABM shield of Israel and Western nations and didn’t think they could perform against 15-20+ missiles at once let alone 110 missiles.
Click to expand...
of course

to me the inference is 1) concentrate attacks on one area, 2) lead with MRBMs instead of UAVs to give enemy < 10 minutes warning time vs 8 hours warning time and 3) larger waves of missiles including subsequent waves (e.g. 100 in first wave + another 100 after 30 minutes in second wave)

if that still has <10% success rate even in second wave then I agree we have major problems and need to change strategy

but even in short term in worst case scenario, sending 1000+ older MRBMs (in multiple waves/days) would likely be enough to appreciably deplete ABM inventory and naturally increase success rate of future salvos, even without a pivot to using more advanced missiles
 
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