Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[StrategicBear]

In 1989, when Khomeini was in power, though its weapons were tenfold inferior, the government remained incorruptible, clerics dared not embezzle, and the entire nation stood united like an iron wall—America dared not lightly provoke war. Before 2020, while Soleimani was still alive, though the state's foundation had been eroded by corrupt clergy, the "Axis of Resistance" still held, the Shia crescent remained unbroken—any invasion by the US and Israel would yield no advantage, hence they too dared not encroach.
Today, the "Axis of Resistance" built by Soleimani has collapsed: the nation teeters on the brink of collapse, drained by fiscal exhaustion, currency implosion, and an intensifying water crisis. The reformists advocate foreign compromise, yet remain helpless in domestic affairs, lamenting in vain. The clergy, greedy and corrupt, endlessly feud for power; the state stands like a tower built on sand, perilously near ruin.
Five possible futures:
First: Abandon the nuclear program, accept inspections, limit ballistic missiles, and allow US oil transit in exchange for sanctions relief. US-Iran negotiations conclude, Trump declares victory. Probability: 25%.
Second: Escalating conflict, full US military engagement aiming for regime change, yet ultimately bogged down, failing to achieve its objectives. Probability: 15%.
Third: Theocratic collapse, the nation fracturing into three—Persian, Azeri, and Kurdish regions each independent, Israel exploits the moment to expand, the Middle East map redrawn. Probability: 15%.
Fourth: Withstand pressure, stabilize the situation, theocratic rule replaced by military dictatorship, the Revolutionary Guards assume full control. Probability: 30%.
Fifth: Protracted stalemate, neither breakthrough nor collapse, slowly bleeding out under sanctions and internal crises, eventually exhausting national strength. Probability: 15%.

Methinks Fourth will happen.

 

[FUB]

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[FUB]

You can bet they are doing the same today. Same backers, different beligerents.

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[FUB]

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[SaadH]

This actually highlights the fact that Iran had the upper hand by end of the war . The military analysts who highlighted this fact were mocked by some by repeatedly showing strikes by miniature drones operated from Iran inside . A huge blunder was made by Iran . Iran should have continued for two more weeks . Iran could have extracted major concessions and we would not be here now . It is same as the Fatwa.

If only Iran had nukes, otherwise zionist demons wouldn't have had no qualms nuking Iran.

 

[PakistanLVR]

Islam says no nukes or ICBMs according to khamenei, not too much of stretch for him to decide Islam says no missiles at all. And much more likely outcome than him ever deciding to actually go to war against the jews.

and that's why he needs to go. Go to Karbala or Najaf and get out of politics.

 

[kastor ville]

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I hate idiots with big mouths..... and small brains. This guy is emblematic of the people who got us here. People who always criticize but never have a solution.....never offer a solution. Look at Jalili, another perfect example of a mental midget.

 

[Cateusm]

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Highly likely Iran will be attacked again. The Conditions to handover Uranium, destroy medium range missiles, reduce their range and stop supporting Iran's allies or cooperating with US adversaries will never be agreed to.

 

[FUB]

Iran doesn’t need hypersonic missiles in this scenario. SRBMs will do the job within minutes. They proved to be deadly accurate in the past like in Iraqi Kurdistan . According to reports, Iran possesses tens of thousands.

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[FUB]

I hate idiots with big mouths..... and small brains. This guy is emblematic of the people who got us here. People who always criticize but never have a solution.....never offer a solution. Look at Jalili, another perfect example of a mental midget.

Allegedly Khalilbuff has become the king maker and is making deals without the approval of Majles. I think this individual is saying to Araghchi, you are not allowed to to surrender.

 

[FUB]

Interesting to see if the regime and its oligarchs do not screw up their second opportunity to pivot to the east .

Chinese Oil Firms Turn To Iran To Replace Venezuelan Crude​

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[kastor ville]

Allegedly Khalilbuff has become the king maker and is making deals without the approval of Majles. I think this individual is saying to Araghchi, you are not allowed to to surrender

Allegedly Khalilbuff has become the king maker and is making deals without the approval of Majles. I think this individual is saying to Araghchi, you are not allowed to to surrender.

That's my point.... The country is drowning economically, the nuclear facilities are bombed, israel open the attacks us. And this idiot thinks we don't have to make a deal. The number one reason is that these corrupt bastards are making money, while Iranians are going hungry.

 

[PakistanLVR]

That's my point.... The country is drowning economically, the nuclear facilities are bombed, israel open the attacks us. And this idiot thinks we don't have to make a deal. The number one reason is that these corrupt bastards are making money, while Iranians are going hungry.

There is no easy road for Iran. Either you make a comprehensive deal (including Missiles) or there will be war. The US and Israel do not shoot from the hip verbally as we have seen. I always hear the Iranians talking poetically about fighting back this way or that way - which is highly strange to me. Talk the talk is easy - but we have seen that Iran's government can't walk the walk. Its embassy bombed in a blatant act of war in 2024, and yet you launch a symbolic attack without much damage (at the time). Should have used your advanced weaponry as that attack (even further back in 2020), showed your enemies who they were dealing with - a paper tiger, one one without a clear decision making process.

The West is relentless due to it processes and efficient decision making. Iran lacks this. I'm just utterly shocked at the sheer incompetency even something basic as internal security. I think you need to ditch the Russians and Indians and pivot fully to China, and get rid of the current apparatus which is highly suspect in my books. No one in Pakistan wants to see Iran occupied and bunch of treacherous individuals take while inviting the two I countries scums to set up shop on Pakistan's borders.

Just a very concerned neighbor.

 

[Immortals]

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Fantastic chart

This is what happens when you pick a fight with the world superpower whose currency runs the global financial system.

This government of Iran from its inception was bent on hostile relations with the West. It became its entire identity. The Arabs learned long ago that wasn’t a sound long term strategy and began pivoting in 80s back to US while Iran pivoted away.

 

[kastor ville]

There is no easy road for Iran. Either you make a comprehensive deal (including Missiles) or there will be war. The US and Israel do not shoot from the hip verbally as we have seen. I always hear the Iranians talking poetically about fighting back this way or that way - which is highly strange to me. Talk the talk is easy - but we have seen that Iran's government can't walk the walk. Its embassy bombed in a blatant act of war in 2024, and yet you launch a symbolic attack without much damage (at the time). Should have used your advanced weaponry as that attack (even further back in 2020), showed your enemies who they were dealing with - a paper tiger, one one without a clear decision making process.

The West is relentless due to it processes and efficient decision making. Iran lacks this. I'm just utterly shocked at the sheer incompetency even something basic as internal security. I think you need to ditch the Russians and Indians and pivot fully to China, and get rid of the current apparatus which is highly suspect in my books. No one in Pakistan wants to see Iran occupied and bunch of treacherous individuals take while inviting the two I countries scums to set up shop on Pakistan's borders.

Just a very concerned neighbor.

Because these are strategies of a 86 yr old without any geopolitical or military experience. Iran can fight back....why is it the rest of the middle east so scared of people who couldn’t beat the Talibans, who couldn't beat the Houthis? Damn...I don’t understand this subservient attitude. Iran can destroy the world economy...That's power! That's deterrence!
If it comes down to war we do have a fight for them. A good fight.
As far as their incompetency...you won't get an argument from me....we know. That's because of who they promote to key positions....insiders and ring kissers.