This time it is different. IAF is going to strike targets inside Iran as well.
Israel doesn’t have the capability to strike targets inside Iran in a serious manner from the air.
First F-35 needs specialized tankers to refuel in mid air on the way to and from Iran. Israel does NOT have these tankers. It was a big request to the US.
Even if by some miracle they did have the tankers, F-35 in a stealth load out (ie all weapons inside internal bays) is not enough firepower to do any major damage to Iran. If they load up their pylons then their stealth element is largely lost by at least a factor of 5-10.
If you launch squadrons of F-16’s, Iran’s over the horizon radars and Early warning radars would pick up the formation hours before reaching the Iranian border.
To put in perspective Iranian OTH radars can pick up a softball tossed in the air in Tel Aviv. These are extremely powerful radars. The reason Israeli attacks are succesful in Syria is because Israel drops payloads in Mediterranean or over Lebanon.
Thus it’s hard to tell which Israeli F-16 flight is normal everyday patrolling action and which is an attack. Even if you did find them, as the Russian-Syrian-Israeli AWAC incident showed, Israel fighters will shadow civilian and military flights of other countries to make it difficult to target them.
But an attack on Iran would be highly viable as the only route Israel would be able to take is thru violating Iraqi airspace. Highly unlikely they would violate Saudi Arabian airspace and come form the south.
If it escalates, Israel will give the green light for the operations they had been planning for several years e.g. taking out top figures of IR (which i suspect is the main reason IR never strikes at Israel directly.
Years ago (pre 2010), Iran built many C&C centers throughout Iran. North Korea engineers also assisted with their expertise that they gained from Chinese engineers in building nuclear strike proof centers.
I can tell you there is an entire network underneath Tehran that rivals Soviet Stalin Moscow network and Nazi Germany Berlin network for military use. Thus in case of war, these top figures will likely be underground and/or in military bunkers in the mountains.
If the lowly Taliban could build the network in Tora Bora, what do you think a nation state like Iran can do with one of the strongest IRGC engineering arms?
Judging IR's actions the past 4+ decades, i really do not see them winning against Israel.
Define winning. They have been winning for years.
I would visit Iran when there were soldiers standing on every street corner. You might not have been born. That’s how fragile Iran society was during the war and after.
2000’s Iran had a non existent air defense compromised of 1970s and 1980’s weapon system compiled of Soviet, american, French, and Chinese systems. It’s most powerful missile was a North Korean knock off of Scud C and it’s gyroscope tech was so bad the CEP on early Shahab-3’s was up to 2KM.
Today Iran has reached the Mediterranean and has floating bases in Red Sea and Mediterranean and done voyages to Venezuelan and around the world.
It has one of the most advanced air defense system networks compromised of the a huge diversity of systems from SHORAD, medium range, to long range. And most importantly of all, it has a wide diversity of radars to help it track its enemy.
It’s BM is one of the most advanced in the world and it’s laser gyroscope technology now largely rivals those inside American and Russian ICBMs.
I could go on. But you get the idea.
So Iran has greatly increased its power in last 20 years, more so than any other military on the planet outside of China/US. It did that in the face of accidents (lack of safety regulations in missile development), assassinations, and espionage.
Not to mention with less than 10% of the annual military budget of China and 2.5% of the annual budget of the United States!
I will give you example of assaination plots. Back in 2003 as a young guy, I read thru various reports that Us/Israel were looking for Fakhrizadeh. At the time there was only one circulating picture of him as a young man (back then believed to in his 40’s). They wanted Iran to name him and allow interviews with UN weapon inspectors. Iran denied he existed. It took 20 years for Israel to finally kill a now old man. And that old man defied his security teams orders that fateful day of traveling since the threat level chatter was high. He was ready to go and didn’t want to live a life trapped like a mouse in retirement.
Yes, they got caught off guard by Hamas but they bounced back and Hamas' last stronghold is about to fall. Internal politics/Washington support aside, they are unstoppable.
In 2000, Hamas fought with rocks, RPGs, and AK47. Even if Israel returns Gaza back to 2000 Gaza state, they largely returned to status quo.
In that time, Iran now has Houthi’s with a BM arsenal rivaling that of powerful nations, Hezbollah in North equipped at 20x stronger levels than in 2000 and with 10 years of war experience in Syria against some of the most formidable war hardened warriors (Chechens), it has a massive footprint in Syria, it has a growing footprint in Sudan and Jordan.
I don’t see how Iran is “losing”. I been the biggest critic of Iranian pragmatic nature. Mostly because the human and economic costs of Israeli airstrikes cuts into Iran’s limited military budget that could go to R&D of advanced military projects. Iran unlike China or US cannot fund everything it wants so right now Syria/Lebanon/Yemen theater is getting a lions share of money that could go towards developing more lethal deterrence items.
This shadow war needs to stop and the only way to stop it is with a skirmish that ends in a UN ceasefire. My gripe has been Iran does not want to go to such lengths because it feels the deaths do not change his power status on the ground, which is territorial integrity of lranian soil. Which they are right.
Russia-Ukraine unfortunately convinced Iranian leadership that no matter the disparity in military size, the West can make a much larger country bleed in the same type of quagmire it got stuck in Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia got stuck in Yemen. So Iran wants to avoid getting stuck in an Israeli-Iranian low to mid intensity conflict that results in its socio-economic centers being targeted.
