Champion
Registered Member
(Apologies, I know the subject is about Iran so my post isn't much related to Iran. )
Not sure about the same outcome aspect.
China presents a fundamentally different challenge with respect to waining American global hegemony. Given their impressively shrewd bureaucracy; my hunch is that if they are compelled to do something, actually do something. Then they will see it through no matter the costs (most likely). All necessary faculties key to global expansion are present within China: Immense advanced military with access to nuclear weaponry, massive economy, largest domestic production capacity in the world, near inexhaustible labor force, advanced technological infrastructure, world-class higher learning institutions, etc. Basically all the amenities that come with being considered a Global SuperPower. Moreover, barring few very fiery (rhetorically speaking) regional disputes. China isn't viewed as being a malignant entity globally. Many nations currently are in favor of signing multiple trade related agreements and expanding mutual diplomatic ties with China and who can blame them; it makes sense. Comes with its own caveats (all deals do) but it is what it is.
I would like to believe that "times have changed" , technology has progressed rapidly and China is at the forefront in many fields that make a difference practically. All that they seem to currently lack (or more-so just don't want to embroil themselves in) is political resolve. Clearly they know their position is tenuous geopolitically and the Americans can easily build up consent against them, straining future as well as current trade-deals or agreements. So for the time being, biding their time is the way to go. How important Taiwan actually is for China remains to be seen but they look to be dead-set on absorbing that country fully into its system, free of Western influence/control.
They've done very well for themselves and don't entirely rely on American controlled semiconductor production (see: https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-semiconductor-industry-advances-despite-us-export-controls ). Future domestic supply chains should be able to compensate in loss of access to Western semiconductor markets. Black-market is always available to them as well.
Finer more nuanced details on how the U.S. can economically hurt China is beyond me I will admit since I simply don't know (not well versed in that sort of stuff in general). I know the Americans can leverage significant pressure on EU states into halting or diminishing trade-deals with China which will hurt their pockets significantly but I don't know just how far that sort of strong-arming actually goes. Can it extend into Africa and South America as well (?).
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