Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations
- Thread starter jauk
- Start date
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Asharq is Saudi state media
Nonetheless, Iran should signal it will ignore a limited response, then respond harshly anyway
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed.
Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv.” These equations shaped its strategy, creating the illusion that it could control the pace of escalation and dictate Israel’s response.
Over time, Israel’s adherence to these rules boosted Hezbollah’s confidence in this fragile structure. But the organization never fully considered what would happen if Israel stopped playing along. When that happened, the entire framework fell apart.
Hezbollah’s mounting losses
The first breakdown came after October 7, when Hezbollah initiated rocket and anti-tank missile attacks on Israel. The IDF responded by systematically targeting Hezbollah squads, while the group tried to enforce its “eye for an eye” doctrine, aiming to inflict equivalent casualties.However, it quickly became apparent that Hezbollah could not match Israel’s capabilities. In a conflict where both sides sought to avoid full-scale war, Israel had far more lethal and precise options, eliminating Hezbollah operatives and key assets at will.
Hezbollah, by contrast, faced a much narrower range of choices. To cause more significant damage, it would need to escalate dramatically – something it sought to avoid. The equation quickly crumbled.
As a result, Israel continued to inflict losses on Hezbollah at a far higher ratio than it suffered, including the elimination of high-ranking commanders.
In effect, this specific equation no longer exists.
Beirut left unprotected
The second rupture shattered the “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation. For years, Hezbollah warned that any Israeli attack on Beirut would provoke heavy missile barrages targeting Tel Aviv. The group consequently assumed that as long as Tel Aviv remained untouched, Beirut would be protected.Based on this logic, Hezbollah concentrated its leadership, strategic assets, and command centers in its Beirut nerve center, the Dahiya district, assuming they were immune to attack.
As the current war progressed, there were early signs that Israel might not continue following this rule. Pinpoint strikes in Beirut killed Hamas deputy chief Saleh Aruri and Hezbollah’s top military commander Fuad Shukr. These were warning shots, but Hezbollah did not adjust its strategy.
When Israel finally decided to terminate the “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” equation, it did so decisively. After executing a mass attack to blow up Hezbollah’s communication devices, the IDF launched a series of intense strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut, targeting its leadership bunkers, command centers, weapons depots, and intelligence operations.
Hezbollah, caught off guard and without a contingency plan, was left defenseless. Its leaders and strategic assets, deeply entrenched in residential areas, were eliminated one by one. Mideast expert Eyal Zisser observed that the organization prepared for an entirely different kind of war.
Old rules are shattered
Hezbollah found itself in a catastrophic situation after its deterrence evaporated. With its chain of command in disarray and weapons caches bombed daily, the group was not in a position to execute its own end of the equation and retaliate with massive missile barrages.Moreover, Hezbollah likely concluded that attacking Tel Aviv would only provoke a fiercer Israeli response that could completely destroy the Dayiha and other strongholds.
For now, Hezbollah chose not to escalate further, leaving its “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation in ruins.
Looking ahead, Hezbollah is now at a crossroads. Its entire strategy of using deterrence equations has failed. If the group survives the war, it will need to completely rethink its doctrine and devise a new approach to counter Israel. [here’s more on Hezbollah’s potential transformation]
What is certain is that the old rules have been shattered. For the foreseeable future, the days of relying on “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” are over.
Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed. Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and...
israelradar.com
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Zionist source but valid analysis.
Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed.
Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv.” These equations shaped its strategy, creating the illusion that it could control the pace of escalation and dictate Israel’s response.
Over time, Israel’s adherence to these rules boosted Hezbollah’s confidence in this fragile structure. But the organization never fully considered what would happen if Israel stopped playing along. When that happened, the entire framework fell apart.
Hezbollah’s mounting losses
The first breakdown came after October 7, when Hezbollah initiated rocket and anti-tank missile attacks on Israel. The IDF responded by systematically targeting Hezbollah squads, while the group tried to enforce its “eye for an eye” doctrine, aiming to inflict equivalent casualties.
However, it quickly became apparent that Hezbollah could not match Israel’s capabilities. In a conflict where both sides sought to avoid full-scale war, Israel had far more lethal and precise options, eliminating Hezbollah operatives and key assets at will.
Hezbollah, by contrast, faced a much narrower range of choices. To cause more significant damage, it would need to escalate dramatically – something it sought to avoid. The equation quickly crumbled.
As a result, Israel continued to inflict losses on Hezbollah at a far higher ratio than it suffered, including the elimination of high-ranking commanders.
In effect, this specific equation no longer exists.
Beirut left unprotected
The second rupture shattered the “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation. For years, Hezbollah warned that any Israeli attack on Beirut would provoke heavy missile barrages targeting Tel Aviv. The group consequently assumed that as long as Tel Aviv remained untouched, Beirut would be protected.
Based on this logic, Hezbollah concentrated its leadership, strategic assets, and command centers in its Beirut nerve center, the Dahiya district, assuming they were immune to attack.
As the current war progressed, there were early signs that Israel might not continue following this rule. Pinpoint strikes in Beirut killed Hamas deputy chief Saleh Aruri and Hezbollah’s top military commander Fuad Shukr. These were warning shots, but Hezbollah did not adjust its strategy.
When Israel finally decided to terminate the “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” equation, it did so decisively. After executing a mass attack to blow up Hezbollah’s communication devices, the IDF launched a series of intense strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut, targeting its leadership bunkers, command centers, weapons depots, and intelligence operations.
Hezbollah, caught off guard and without a contingency plan, was left defenseless. Its leaders and strategic assets, deeply entrenched in residential areas, were eliminated one by one. Mideast expert Eyal Zisser observed that the organization prepared for an entirely different kind of war.
Old rules are shattered
Hezbollah found itself in a catastrophic situation after its deterrence evaporated. With its chain of command in disarray and weapons caches bombed daily, the group was not in a position to execute its own end of the equation and retaliate with massive missile barrages.
Moreover, Hezbollah likely concluded that attacking Tel Aviv would only provoke a fiercer Israeli response that could completely destroy the Dayiha and other strongholds.
For now, Hezbollah chose not to escalate further, leaving its “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation in ruins.
Looking ahead, Hezbollah is now at a crossroads. Its entire strategy of using deterrence equations has failed. If the group survives the war, it will need to completely rethink its doctrine and devise a new approach to counter Israel. [here’s more on Hezbollah’s potential transformation]
What is certain is that the old rules have been shattered. For the foreseeable future, the days of relying on “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” are over.
Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed. Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and...
--
Zionist source but valid analysis.
It's a good analysis but they're missing one key aspect. There is enormous pressure on Hezbollah to not unleash hell on Tel Aviv, by the non shia non Hezbollah aligned groups in Lebanon.
They have this flawed understanding that Israel will not destroy any areas outside the Dahiya in Beirut, if Hezbolla holds back that is.
What Hezbollah is betting on is that Israel will eventually escalate by bombing Beirut proper, non Hezbollah, non shia neighbourhoods that is.
The Israelis has already started doing that but on a very small scale, this will increase, and when that happens the pressure on Hezbollah to NOT bomb Tel Aviv will alleviate, and the collaborators propaganda against Hezbollah will become ineffective.
One will either believe that Hezbollah cruise and ballistic missiles have all been destroyed by Israel or that Hezbollah is saving them for Tel Aviv once Israel eventually escalates and pushes the majority of Lebanon to seek retribution.
Hezbollah despite all setbacks and propaganda is preforming extremely well on the ground, the area that is underperforming is the missile attacks, which are either all destroyed or they're waiting for the right moment to use them on Tel Aviv.
Last edited:
vmro
Registered Member
I almost clicked like, but this is not something that is possible to like....and I can't find answers, why, how...Hezbollah was always level above hamas, only match for idf of all their neighbors.... to see crushed Hezbollah is most touching thought for me of all things there....Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed.
Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv.” These equations shaped its strategy, creating the illusion that it could control the pace of escalation and dictate Israel’s response.
Over time, Israel’s adherence to these rules boosted Hezbollah’s confidence in this fragile structure. But the organization never fully considered what would happen if Israel stopped playing along. When that happened, the entire framework fell apart.
Hezbollah’s mounting losses
The first breakdown came after October 7, when Hezbollah initiated rocket and anti-tank missile attacks on Israel. The IDF responded by systematically targeting Hezbollah squads, while the group tried to enforce its “eye for an eye” doctrine, aiming to inflict equivalent casualties.
However, it quickly became apparent that Hezbollah could not match Israel’s capabilities. In a conflict where both sides sought to avoid full-scale war, Israel had far more lethal and precise options, eliminating Hezbollah operatives and key assets at will.
Hezbollah, by contrast, faced a much narrower range of choices. To cause more significant damage, it would need to escalate dramatically – something it sought to avoid. The equation quickly crumbled.
As a result, Israel continued to inflict losses on Hezbollah at a far higher ratio than it suffered, including the elimination of high-ranking commanders.
In effect, this specific equation no longer exists.
Beirut left unprotected
The second rupture shattered the “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation. For years, Hezbollah warned that any Israeli attack on Beirut would provoke heavy missile barrages targeting Tel Aviv. The group consequently assumed that as long as Tel Aviv remained untouched, Beirut would be protected.
Based on this logic, Hezbollah concentrated its leadership, strategic assets, and command centers in its Beirut nerve center, the Dahiya district, assuming they were immune to attack.
As the current war progressed, there were early signs that Israel might not continue following this rule. Pinpoint strikes in Beirut killed Hamas deputy chief Saleh Aruri and Hezbollah’s top military commander Fuad Shukr. These were warning shots, but Hezbollah did not adjust its strategy.
When Israel finally decided to terminate the “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” equation, it did so decisively. After executing a mass attack to blow up Hezbollah’s communication devices, the IDF launched a series of intense strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut, targeting its leadership bunkers, command centers, weapons depots, and intelligence operations.
Hezbollah, caught off guard and without a contingency plan, was left defenseless. Its leaders and strategic assets, deeply entrenched in residential areas, were eliminated one by one. Mideast expert Eyal Zisser observed that the organization prepared for an entirely different kind of war.
Old rules are shattered
Hezbollah found itself in a catastrophic situation after its deterrence evaporated. With its chain of command in disarray and weapons caches bombed daily, the group was not in a position to execute its own end of the equation and retaliate with massive missile barrages.
Moreover, Hezbollah likely concluded that attacking Tel Aviv would only provoke a fiercer Israeli response that could completely destroy the Dayiha and other strongholds.
For now, Hezbollah chose not to escalate further, leaving its “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation in ruins.
Looking ahead, Hezbollah is now at a crossroads. Its entire strategy of using deterrence equations has failed. If the group survives the war, it will need to completely rethink its doctrine and devise a new approach to counter Israel. [here’s more on Hezbollah’s potential transformation]
What is certain is that the old rules have been shattered. For the foreseeable future, the days of relying on “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” are over.
Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed. Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and...
--
Zionist source but valid analysis.
I just watched on Al Jazeera Hezbollah's parliament member, hi-tech superiority for him decisive for this decapitation and he couldn't say almost nothing without full reconstructed leadership...
I hope this is just short living nightmare, and Hezbollah will strike back on equal basis as soon as possible....
There are reports that Tell Aviv is under attack now, but without further details...
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vmro
Registered Member
MacGregor:
In the moment, there is nonstop of delivering Russian wepon containers to Iran... Israeli hope to have air base in Azerbaijan to use their air superiority against Iran is rejected by Baku regime, for many reasons...possibly coup d'etat..
Iran now have sensitive hypersonic technology and missiles... for the first time...
First meeting between Russian and Iranian presidents in Turkmenistan, they expressed that both countries have "same vision" for ongoing and future matters...
Modern aircrafts will not come to Iran because of danger being destroyed by Israel, pilots are exercising for right moment...
Its very interesting interpretation of Israel by Putin as "special case of state", and need to be reconsider in every aspect...On international basis...
Russian forces on the Golan will have "evolving" role... interesting, honestly Russians openly stated that there is no love in geopolitics, but with new national doctrine that Dugin created and Putin accepted as only possible... Iran is one of the main partners of Russia on many levels, especially shared interest in keeping Syria in stronger shape, and controlling Turkish expansion...
Putin long-term plans for Israel are isolation on their northern borders, and retaking of Golan...
America will stay away of this region with the coming periods, because usa don't need oil from ME anymore...
This last efforts of Israeli government to use America as their gun...
Times are hard, but time is on Iranian side... Don't be led by moments of anger and frustration, Iran has to be Chessmaster, while Israelis genocidal maniacs are playing dangerous poker...
In the moment, there is nonstop of delivering Russian wepon containers to Iran... Israeli hope to have air base in Azerbaijan to use their air superiority against Iran is rejected by Baku regime, for many reasons...possibly coup d'etat..
Iran now have sensitive hypersonic technology and missiles... for the first time...
First meeting between Russian and Iranian presidents in Turkmenistan, they expressed that both countries have "same vision" for ongoing and future matters...
Modern aircrafts will not come to Iran because of danger being destroyed by Israel, pilots are exercising for right moment...
Its very interesting interpretation of Israel by Putin as "special case of state", and need to be reconsider in every aspect...On international basis...
Russian forces on the Golan will have "evolving" role... interesting, honestly Russians openly stated that there is no love in geopolitics, but with new national doctrine that Dugin created and Putin accepted as only possible... Iran is one of the main partners of Russia on many levels, especially shared interest in keeping Syria in stronger shape, and controlling Turkish expansion...
Putin long-term plans for Israel are isolation on their northern borders, and retaking of Golan...
America will stay away of this region with the coming periods, because usa don't need oil from ME anymore...
This last efforts of Israeli government to use America as their gun...
Times are hard, but time is on Iranian side... Don't be led by moments of anger and frustration, Iran has to be Chessmaster, while Israelis genocidal maniacs are playing dangerous poker...
- Thread starter
- #6,056
I don't agree with it. As of now Hezbollah is doing no less than the previous 2006 war and perhaps much more.Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed.
Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv.” These equations shaped its strategy, creating the illusion that it could control the pace of escalation and dictate Israel’s response.
Over time, Israel’s adherence to these rules boosted Hezbollah’s confidence in this fragile structure. But the organization never fully considered what would happen if Israel stopped playing along. When that happened, the entire framework fell apart.
Hezbollah’s mounting losses
The first breakdown came after October 7, when Hezbollah initiated rocket and anti-tank missile attacks on Israel. The IDF responded by systematically targeting Hezbollah squads, while the group tried to enforce its “eye for an eye” doctrine, aiming to inflict equivalent casualties.
However, it quickly became apparent that Hezbollah could not match Israel’s capabilities. In a conflict where both sides sought to avoid full-scale war, Israel had far more lethal and precise options, eliminating Hezbollah operatives and key assets at will.
Hezbollah, by contrast, faced a much narrower range of choices. To cause more significant damage, it would need to escalate dramatically – something it sought to avoid. The equation quickly crumbled.
As a result, Israel continued to inflict losses on Hezbollah at a far higher ratio than it suffered, including the elimination of high-ranking commanders.
In effect, this specific equation no longer exists.
Beirut left unprotected
The second rupture shattered the “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation. For years, Hezbollah warned that any Israeli attack on Beirut would provoke heavy missile barrages targeting Tel Aviv. The group consequently assumed that as long as Tel Aviv remained untouched, Beirut would be protected.
Based on this logic, Hezbollah concentrated its leadership, strategic assets, and command centers in its Beirut nerve center, the Dahiya district, assuming they were immune to attack.
As the current war progressed, there were early signs that Israel might not continue following this rule. Pinpoint strikes in Beirut killed Hamas deputy chief Saleh Aruri and Hezbollah’s top military commander Fuad Shukr. These were warning shots, but Hezbollah did not adjust its strategy.
When Israel finally decided to terminate the “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” equation, it did so decisively. After executing a mass attack to blow up Hezbollah’s communication devices, the IDF launched a series of intense strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut, targeting its leadership bunkers, command centers, weapons depots, and intelligence operations.
Hezbollah, caught off guard and without a contingency plan, was left defenseless. Its leaders and strategic assets, deeply entrenched in residential areas, were eliminated one by one. Mideast expert Eyal Zisser observed that the organization prepared for an entirely different kind of war.
Old rules are shattered
Hezbollah found itself in a catastrophic situation after its deterrence evaporated. With its chain of command in disarray and weapons caches bombed daily, the group was not in a position to execute its own end of the equation and retaliate with massive missile barrages.
Moreover, Hezbollah likely concluded that attacking Tel Aviv would only provoke a fiercer Israeli response that could completely destroy the Dayiha and other strongholds.
For now, Hezbollah chose not to escalate further, leaving its “Tel Aviv equals Beirut” equation in ruins.
Looking ahead, Hezbollah is now at a crossroads. Its entire strategy of using deterrence equations has failed. If the group survives the war, it will need to completely rethink its doctrine and devise a new approach to counter Israel. [here’s more on Hezbollah’s potential transformation]
What is certain is that the old rules have been shattered. For the foreseeable future, the days of relying on “an eye for an eye” and “Beirut equals Tel Aviv” are over.
Hezbollah’s Deterrence Equations Shattered by Israel
For years, Hezbollah relied on “deterrence equations” to manage its conflict with Israel. These carefully crafted formulas have now collapsed, leaving the organization helpless and exposed. Hezbollah promoted, celebrated, and ultimately became addicted to concepts like “an eye for an eye” and...
--
Zionist source but valid analysis.
Last edited:
Ali_Baba
VIP Member
American cannot fully stay away from Israel as they are legally bound by various laws on their statute books to provide military, and economic support to Israel. Israeli's have really tied American hands for the future by having so many trapdoors built into the American legal system to force them to act in certain ways, even if they want to act that way or not.
