Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[tsunset]

Uyghur fighters reportedly in Syria

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[BigMela2onin]

In 2025 we will probably see major Israeli airstrikes against Fordow and Natanz designed to destroy Iran's latent nuclear capability.

But think of how strong a message of deterrence we can send with TP4 after!

However, the truth is that Israel currently has the upper hand in the ladder of escalation. And if Iran doesn't respond to their attack, we will be in a weaker position than before True Promise 1. We once turned a blind eye to the assassination of General Soleimani by Trump and since that day, we haven't had even a single year without security issues and provocations.

That set the precedent that Iran will not respond to attacks. Since then high ranking officers have been killed, our embassy has been bombed, and now they struck Iran directly and killed Iranians. As visually impressive as Op Martyr Soleimani, TP1 and 2 were, they did not deter because they did not kill any euroapes. If TP3 even happens, I predict it will be the same, and no deterrence will be established; in fact these weak responses embolden more direct attacks.

 

[Immortals]

The Israelis know that such a thing is impossible, mainly because they know that all major civilian facilities like power plants, desalination plants and many other essentials will be bombed out of existence if Israel tries to make bombing Iranian targets a common occurrence.

We heard the same bravado from HZ if Israel dared to target Nasrallah, Senior Hezbollah Leadership, or kill civilians in Beruit.

Yet all happened in less than 2 months, HZ was unable to back up all the talk that Nasrallah made over the years.

 

[Lulldapull]

if 5 Iranians killed and multiple buildings destroyed precisely from Khojr to Parchin to Shahroud is 'weak' then I hope Iran's response will be very weak indeed

From what we know from main stream media, a tractor/ bus manufacturing facilities roof got a hole in it. And the other news on rocket fuel mixers which really are just like commercial ready mix concrete mixer factory got hit in two of the halls out of a dozen. And alleged S-300 sites destroyed, in retaliation for TP-2 no?

In TP-1 they only got a 30-N6 Flap Lid/ Tomb stone surveillance unit via locally launched quadcopters no?

OMG I'm so scared.......

 

[Persian Gulf]

We heard the same bravado from HZ if Israel dared to target Nasrallah, Senior Hezbollah Leadership, or kill civilians in Beruit.

Yet all happened in less than 2 months, HZ was unable to back up all the talk that Nasrallah made over the years.

it's really a mystery why they didn't use any of the cruise or ballistic missiles they spent years acquiring

Israel's actions were slowly slowly then all at once, and they were always multiple steps ahead of Hezbollah

we must not fall into the same trap

 

[ParthianLord]

(view on x itself to have subtitles activated)

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[ParthianLord]

The Israelis living in the north are refusing to come back like the lebanese villagers / border town folks on the lebanese side of the border.

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Residents of north afraid to return home despite cease-fire

While Netanyahu specified the reasons for the cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah, evacuated residents are not buying it, saying that returning now is tantamount to surrender; 'I’m not buying it. We saw what they did to the poor residents in the south'

www.ynetnews.com

they claim "Netanyahu betrayed us, next time hezbollah members will kill us the IDF is not protecting us, no way we come back"



meantime the Lebanese on the border towns/villages returned today ,thanked iran and hezbollah.

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everyone happy =))

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[StrategicBear]

We heard the same bravado from HZ if Israel dared to target Nasrallah, Senior Hezbollah Leadership, or kill civilians in Beruit.

Yet all happened in less than 2 months, HZ was unable to back up all the talk that Nasrallah made over the years.

Hezbollah does not have a nuclear deterrent. Iran already has and is about to get more...

 

[Immortals]

it's really a mystery why they didn't use any of the cruise or ballistic missiles they spent years acquiring

Israel's actions were slowly slowly then all at once, and they were always multiple steps ahead of Hezbollah

we must not fall into the same trap

If Mossad knew where Nasrallah and the entire Senior Leadership were Throughoit the conflict, then chances are they knew where high value weapons stores were. That could be a plausible reason why we didn’t see the estimated “hundreds” of HZ BMs and CMs used widely in conflict.

Small Drones are much easier to disperse and hide.

Hezbollah does not have a nuclear deterrent. Iran already has and is about to get more...

Israel knows Iran would never use a nuclear bomb first. So there isn’t a major advantage in conventional conflict having nukes.

Russia has nukes and Ukraine still invaded Russian territory (Kursk) and routinely does drone and missile attacks deep into Russian territory.

The nuclear deterrent is overblown and is used to prevent a 1945 Berlin style moment. Not for conventional skirmishes. Until the pandora box is opened of course and Iran is not the party that will do such a thing based on various reasons.

 

[Persian Gulf]

If Mossad knew where Nasrallah and the entire Senior Leadership were Throughoit the conflict, then chances are they knew where high value weapons stores were. That could be a plausible reason why we didn’t see the estimated “hundreds” of HZ BMs and CMs used widely in conflict.

Small Drones are much easier to disperse and hide.

likely true but we saw even in last days of the war footage from underground missile bases operating fine

not even one ASCM survived? doesn't make sense

 

[Lulldapull]

If Mossad knew where Nasrallah and the entire Senior Leadership were Throughoit the conflict, then chances are they knew where high value weapons stores were. That could be a plausible reason why we didn’t see the estimated “hundreds” of HZ BMs and CMs used widely in conflict.

Small Drones are much easier to disperse and hide.



Israel knows Iran would never use a nuclear bomb first. So there isn’t a major advantage in conventional conflict having nukes.

Russia has nukes and Ukraine still invaded Russian territory (Kursk) and routinely does drone and missile attacks deep into Russian territory.

The nuclear deterrent is overblown and is used to prevent a 1945 Berlin style moment. Not for conventional skirmishes. Until the pandora box is opened of course and Iran is not the party that will do such a thing based on various reasons.

Nuke deterrent is a known junk! Everybody knows. If you use it you are committing suicide.

 

[Lulldapull]

And here's the 1 million dollar question: Does Israel care about how many Iranians, Lebanese or Palestinians are killed when it attacks these countries?

The truth is that we do not have the destruction power that we think we do. We had a few accurate shots too, but even they didn't cause as much damage as we expected.

Like Israeli attacks with US backing caused any damage? Let’s get iss-toopidd shall we?

 

[jauk]

With the time passing on, I have suspicion that Israel asked this truce because Irán.

They have understood that TP3 is real and coming. They know they don't have enough interceptors to stop a big volley of missiles. So they decided to close HZ front to put all their systems working against TP3.

That’s definitely a factor . However, The Resistance has plenty of firepower. Don’t listen the the weak who’re lost their keyboard. Listen to the strong who rained hundreds of missiles and rockets to the last day in the battlefield.

 

[Immortals]

likely true but we saw even in last days of the war footage from underground missile bases operating fine

not even one ASCM survived? doesn't make sense

They did use some BMs and CMs, but I imagine whatever they have was a strategic reserve that they weren’t going to use for a conflict where 1 or 2 or even 10 CMs wasn’t going to change the reality on the ground. I agree Nasrallah completely mishandled the stockpile and should used it much easier under a “use it or lose it” philosophy.

Who knows how long it will take Iran to smuggle enough of these types of weapons into Lebanon. And if you are Israel you will likely just “watch” where they go and have them lead you to future weapon storages that you can add the coordinates to your target bank for future attacks.

It’s much easier to smuggle components to Houthis via small fishing boats than trying to transport entire missiles to HZ thru Syria.

 

[jauk]

"Hezbollah cannot return to the south"

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Incorrect! Just like 2006.