Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[PakAl]

We can expect a big clash between HTS and SDF, what will US role be? will they support HTS/moderate-al-qaida or SDF/PKK? very interesting clashes could start any moment.

The clash will be between SNA - Turkish backed v SDF - Kurdish up north. HTS will be used and abandoned in a few years time although chances of a clash between HTS and SDF is possible down south. The Usa and Israel want a Kurdish state in Syria, bordering Iraqi Kurdish state, this will be a road to a new country in the future on Turkish borders. Checkmate.

 

[OldTwilight]

now iri last option is to develop nukes . 13 - 15 years ago , I said khamenei fatwa was like shooting ourselves in the knee , but nobody cared to listen.

 

[PakAl]

And the usual suspects would sit back and enjoy when the rebels turn on each other. Afterall Assad and HTS aren't the only ones in the equation.

Some geniuses on the forum think that when Assad falls its gonna be all La La land

The thing is SDF is hated by Turkey but supported by Usa and Israel for a future Kurdish state. Turkey supports SNA and wants them to deal with SDF/PKK threat. The HTS is Arab GCC supported with some form of agreement with Turkey. One big question is will Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan and Egypt accept pro Turkey government in Syria. A big NO, they just kicked Iranians out and now have Turks lol. Syria will be divided like Iraq, Yemen and Libya until one side gets exhausted just like the Russians and Iranians.

 

[Immortals]

Unless both Iran and Russia are willing to forego all strategic imperatives that underpin their modern states I believe they will not accept what is happening in Syria.

Russia is in its own major war and cannot provide much to this conflict.

Iran cannot provide much if SAA doesn’t want to fight. Just like US Military couldn’t do much when Afghan army gave up fighting the Taliban.

The SAA is conspicuously absent from what I've been able to do garner but the institutions of the Syrian state will not just absolve it's obligations and disappear without a fight.

It looks like SAA is going to Damascus for one last stand. The group that controls the capital controls the country in the end.

Barring a massive change in developments, I am not optimistic especially if the IRGC have decided that it’s not worth it to try to save Assad for the 2nd time.

 

[SteppeWolff]

Barring a massive change in developments, I am not optimistic especially if the IRGC have decided that it’s not worth it to try to save Assad for the 2nd time.

Does IRGC realize how big of a strategic loss losing Syria would be? To the absolute gain of Zionia and their buddy Turkiye.

 

[SteppeWolff]

The thing is SDF is hated by Turkey but supported by Usa and Israel for a future Kurdish state. Turkey supports SNA and wants them to deal with SDF/PKK threat. The HTS is Arab GCC supported with some form of agreement with Turkey. One big question is will Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan and Egypt accept pro Turkey government in Syria. A big NO, they just kicked Iranians out and now have Turks lol. Syria will be divided like Iraq, Yemen and Libya until one side gets exhausted just like the Russians and Iranians.

Wish all here saw it with your clarity.

 

[OldTwilight]

Does IRGC realize how big of a strategic loss losing Syria would be? To the absolute gain of Zionia and their buddy Turkiye.

Kham3nei let them to do economic activities, now they are one of biggest stockholders in Iran , They are businessmen now and don't have time to think about such small things .... and the one who cared about such a things already sent to Syria and Lebanon to get martyred.

 

[SteppeWolff]

Kham3nei let them to do economic activities, now they are one of biggest stockholders in Iran , They are businessmen now and don't have time to think about such small things .... and the one who cared about such a things already sent to Syria and Lebanon to get martyred.

Military guys turning into businessmen? Hits too close to home for me as a Pakistani. Tragic Indeed.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Kham3nei let them to do economic activities, now they are one of biggest stockholders in Iran , They are businessmen now and don't have time to think about such small things .... and the one who cared about such a things already sent to Syria and Lebanon to get martyred.

Iran has a communist-Islamic-oligarchic economy. All the bad elements are combined in the "Iranian model". It's a danger for the country and its interests.

 

[Garcia Sea]

The collapse of the Shiite alliance is proceeding at a frightening pace.
All the brave and capable generals have been assassinated, and all that is left are the incompetent and cowardly generals who have survived by running and hiding.
The U.S. and Israeli assassination campaigns have been remarkably effective.
Even at this juncture, Iran's reformist government is only sending its foreign minister to Iraq for carefree discussions.
I told them that it was dangerous to elect a doctor to the presidency who dreamed of negotiating with the U.S. in such an emergency, but no one listened.
If only Khamenei had not eliminated Ahmadinejad, if only he had paid a little more attention to the safety of his supposed successor, Raisi... All regrets are behind us.
The politicians, whom the self-proclaimed moderates hated, were indispensable in protecting the country.
They protected the country so the reformers could just talk shit about them from a safe distance.

 

[OldTwilight]

The collapse of the Shiite alliance is proceeding at a frightening pace.
All the brave and capable generals have been assassinated, and all that is left are the incompetent and cowardly generals who have survived by running and hiding.
The U.S. and Israeli assassination campaigns have been remarkably effective.
Even at this juncture, Iran's reformist government is only sending its foreign minister to Iraq for carefree discussions.
I told them that it was dangerous to elect a doctor to the presidency who dreamed of negotiating with the U.S. in such an emergency, but no one listened.
If only Khamenei had not eliminated Ahmadinejad, if only he had paid a little more attention to the safety of his supposed successor, Raisi... All regrets are behind us.
The politicians, whom the self-proclaimed moderates hated, were indispensable in protecting the country.
They protected the country so the reformers could just talk shit about them from a safe distance.

There wasn't a Shia alliance in first place.

 

[Hack-Hook]

The terrorists' way of proceeding is strange.

It seems that no one will confront them. Syrian army is retreating without a fight.

Its what SAA do last time , Russian air force and mobilized militia defeat the terrorists not SAA

 

[Immortals]

Does IRGC realize how big of a strategic loss losing Syria would be? To the absolute gain of Zionia and their buddy Turkiye.

Let me tell you a story. I have been following this conflict since it’s origination at a CIA color revolution in the Arab Spring, that is 2010-2011.

One time years later I was watching a video on an IRGC general giving an interview. It was not a flashy video nor probably many saw it. He was speaking and he said something quite remarkable. He said back when Damascus was about to fall, when all hope was lost there was a great debate not in Iranian leadership, but the IRGC itself about intervening!

Many of his colleagues he said thought it was a “lost cause” and it was better to negotiate a solution with the playmakers to secure Iran’s interest. He said many didn’t believe they could save Assad. It had never been done before (they were right). He said thankfully those elements didn’t win out within the organization and that leadership sided with those who called for intervention.

Now I ask you, in 2024, are those anti interventionist elements still in IRGC? Of course! And what about the elements that said they must intervene? …..They are dead. Many died in Syria in the last decade to Israeli strikes and the chief architect (Solemani, died in 2020).

The IRGC is now survived by Generals who sit in Tehran and live off nepotism like General Salami, General Bagheri, and the rest. These generals no longer have revolutionary zeal, they are men of talk, not men of war. They live off the fruits of their fallen brothers. And much like Qajar dynasty they will rapidly squander what previous gains their brothers got them.

The IRGC today is not the IRGC of 2010 nor the IRGC of 1985. They are now a quasi economic-political-military institution that has a huge
Interests in self preservation and making money busting sanctions.

Without a decree of Ali Khamenai to come into Syria, I suspect their are political maneuvering being done for a post Assad Syria already once again.

 

[Immortals]

Its what SAA do last time , Russian air force and mobilized militia defeat the terrorists not SAA

Where is your claimed 30,000 miltias? Did they get lost on the way to Hama? Homs? Maybe you can provide them directions.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Where is your claimed 30,000 miltias? Did they get lost on the way to Hama? Homs? Maybe you can provide them directions.

i said rumored 40,000 not 30,000 and didn't Iraqi side was in process of sending them before it become clear SAA as usual don't want to fight.
by the way make your complaint to reuters