Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

mangekyo said:
This is spot on. While Iran did at some point (soleimani era) show tactical brilliance. The Iranian rial is simply no match for never ending supplies of American dollars. Our GDP is comparable to Pakistans. Economically we cant compete. If we had a robust economy, the situation would be completely different with Iran playing a direct role both in the Israel-Hezbollah war and Syria. Nasrallah would probably still be alive and Assad would remain president.
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Assad fell for one simple reason: he couldn’t rebuild his country.

After 15 years. Conditions were awful. Blackouts. Bombed our cities. 90% of country in poverty. Shortage of cooking oil.

Iran was sending 60-100K (at least) barrels of oil to Syria for basic needs.

Why would anyone continue to fight for Assad? His own soldiers were starving and underpaid with a currency in free fall.

He was worse off than Saddam in 2002. At least Saddam had oil and his cities were not bombed and razed to the ground.

As for Iran, it doesn’t matter how tactical you are on battlefield. You can have the best generals in human history, but you still need gold to wage your wars and pay your people.
 
tsunset said:
Al Yahudammad-YahoodJolani gets his country completely disarmed, kilometers of land stolen, yet he "does not want conflict with Israel"

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At this point he should ask for Israel's price to buy Syria in its whole. Sunni religious country at its peak level
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Why would he want conflict with Israel? He’s a lowly insurgent commander. He saw ISIS lose 10,000+ men at battle of Kobani to US airforce + Kurds back in the day.

Israel already likely tracks his location 24/7.

Unlike the [incompetent] Iran and Russia who let him build power for a decade, he would meet an airstrike fairly quickly if he stepped out of line. So would his number #2-#10 officials in his organization. They would be hunted fairly quickly.

That’s the difference between the West and Iran/Russia. West will now just decapitate organizations and see if they can rebuild. Whereas Iran/Russia will let them become 10x the threat they were a decade ago.Same issue Israel had letting Hamas and Hezbollah grow stronger from 2000 to 2023. Clearly that didn’t work. Now they are doing a mass systematic decapitation strategy, let’s see how that goes for them.
 
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Immortals said:
Assad fell for one simple reason: he couldn’t rebuild his country.

After 15 years. Conditions were awful. Blackouts. Bombed our cities. 90% of country in poverty. Shortage of cooking oil.

Iran was sending 60-100K (at least) barrels of oil to Syria for basic needs.

Why would anyone continue to fight for Assad? His own soldiers were starving and underpaid with a currency in free fall.

He was worse off than Saddam in 2002. At least Saddam had oil and his cities were not bombed and razed to the ground.

As for Iran, it doesn’t matter how tactical you are on battlefield. You can have the best generals in human history, but you still need gold to wage your wars and pay your people.
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We have more than enough resources to become an economic superpower. Thats why the sanctions are there. They are meant to cripple our economy so that we never reach our potential. I am pretty sure the US isn't scared of a 300B dollar economy just because it has missiles.
 
Immortals said:
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even hardcore religious Shia fans of IRI are losing faith in the system due to IRI's constant lies and deception to cover their weakness and incompetence

a very bad sign. 2025 will be decisive for IRI
 
Persian Gulf said:
no more free oil to Iraq should be next on our agenda
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Please where is the proof Iran is giving Iraq free oil? Iran is most likely routing its oil through Iraq, since Iraq isnt under sanctions. Iran doesn't love Iraq thaaat much, cmon bro. THe oil to Assad most likely wasn't free either, but Assad most likely didnt pay in USD but paid "in-kind" back to Iran for the oil.
 
Persian Gulf said:
refined oil like gasoline

it's not free but it's on 'credit' and Iraq only pays with US permission and with restricted methods

$10 billion of debt

www.iranintl.com

Iran Official Claims Iraq Has Released All Of Its $10 Billion Debt

Iraq has made available all of Iran’s frozen funds for purchasing food and medicine, the chairman of Iran-Iraq chamber of commerce in Tehran said Monday.
www.iranintl.com www.iranintl.com
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Sure, but its still not free. Iraqi debt to Iran piling up isnt = free oil/gas from Iran.
 
Liquidator said:
The saying "fortune favours the bold" is not without it's origins in truth.
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Not always- how much "fortune" did Gaza get for being "bold "against Israel since Oct. 7? It depends- Iranians can bich all they want about the Iranian govt's reactions to Israel's actions against its interests and those of the axis of resistance, but they forget and underappreciated the fact that the Iranian govt hasn't gotten Iran into an unnecessary war or war the Iranian govt isn't fully ready for- people shouldnt take peace for granted- its not free.
 
Persian Gulf said:
Israel is bold and competent
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and has superpower US and EU (at least major powers) backup for any regional "emergencies".
Persian Gulf said:
Iran is conservative and not very competent
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And Iran has superpower US and EU countries as enemies, while Russia is busy cutting NATO down to size in Ukraine and China cannot be trusted to support Iran in case of war with US if China thinks Iran made mistakes that triggered US to fight it- harsh realities exist for many mid and regional powers, including Iran.
Persian Gulf said:
sooner we accept the facts and identify the flaws, the sooner we can fix them
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Yea, Iran needs to make changes and improvements, also because regional dynamics have changed, not just because Iran is "complacent and not decisive" .
 
mangekyo said:
Thats why the sanctions are there. They are meant to cripple our economy so that we never reach our potential.
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No sanctions are there because you took diplomatic US hostages for a year. Sanctions are there because you blew up the Marine Barracks in Lebanon. Sanctions are there because you maimed and killed hundreds of US troops in Iraq with EFPs. Sanctions are there because you had a hand in bombings of US/Israeli interests around the globe from the 80s thru the 90s. Solemani died because Trump told him to back off the US embassy in Baghdad and instead he sent Iraqi militias and protestors to raid the embassy like it’s 1979. You keep poking the giant and wondering why they try to contain you.

You decided to pick a fight with America and make Palestine your moral cause. You decided to reject Saddam’s ceasefire and continue the war for another 6 years leading to economic and human destruction for Shiites on both side.

America even under Reagan tried to maintain the security relationship due to Soviet Union. Iran rejected it. It is Iran that has built the republic on ‘Death to America’ making idea of normalization an awkward prospect at best.

If iran was smart, they would have kept relations with America. Used America and EU to build up a strong diverse economy that is well integrated into the West while the west still relied on Middle East oil up to late 2000’s. Similar to what China and Turkey did. Also like Turkey/China gotten economic ToT and military ToT and first built a strong economic Iran THEN expanded the war machine and AoR on the basis of not just proxy might, but military and economic might as well. This fallacy that trade with west meant zero sovereignty makes no sense when you have Vietnam, Turkey, Azeribajian, China standing as contrast to that.

Instead Iran thought it was the time of the crusades and that religious fervor and “12 million man army” was enough to conquer the advances of technology and economic superiority. Maybe if such a revolution happened 500 years earlier, Iran had a chance at beating the west. The problem with religious fervor for theocracy is much like a rebellious teenager, with time it moderates and becomes more pragmatic. Especially when that theocracy fails to improve life for its people. Syria may be extremist today, but in time it will moderate as it’s key to its survival. Or else refusal to moderate and you turn into Afghanistan or Cuba, a perpetual failed state whose country is banished to poverty for centuries to come.

Listen the average human being doesn’t care about great power games or 100 year chess like battles for dominance or “sovereignty” they care about their prosperity and livelihood. They are selfish and have a short lifespan on this planet. There intelligence is questionable at best.

It might shock you to understand that many people would rather be prosperous under foreign rule than poverty under a domestic one. And naturally the opposite also holds true.

The issue people forget on here is blind nationalism and feeding into this geopolitical conflict will get you the average Spectator nothing. These battles have waged long before you existed and will wage long after your gone.

America is an evil empire guilty of terrible crimes. But punching it the nose, didn’t do you any favors.
 
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