Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Immortals]

even hardcore religious Shia fans of IRI are losing faith in the system due to IRI's constant lies and deception to cover their weakness and incompetence

a very bad sign. 2025 will be decisive for IRI

Both on this forum and the previous I always asked members: “what’s the end goal”

And like some collective “brain hive”: NUKKKEEESSS

Which again doesn’t solve the problem. Nukes aren’t going to make America and West remove sanctions (unless you disarm, which begs the question why you went nuclear to begin with).

The Chinese and the infamous strategic deal didn’t come to the rescue. The Russians didn’t come to the rescue. It’s gotten so bad you are now asking House of Saud to be your lead investor and playing Saudi Arabia against Qatar.

Game Theory says:

A) Iran strikes a deal and returns to focus on itself for a period of time.

B) Iran stays defiant and continues to rot away from the inside while waiting for either The Rapture or China/Russia to save Iran economically.

C) go nuclear and still stay under sanctions (probably more) and like option B continue to wait for the world to change in your favor. But hey at least you got nukes now so no one will dare invade Tehran by land. So that’s cool I guess.

Options B and C have the possibility of Iran collapsing from within due to economic calamity.

The rial at its current pace will breach 100,000 in 2025. At which time the Bazaari’s will likely shut down the Bazaar and the battle between Bazaari’s and establishment will begin. Didn’t work out well for the Shah.

 

[Immortals]

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Much like the Taliban, Jolani knows he should keep Iran as a neutral party until his fortunes turn better.

 

[Immortals]

A country with Top 5 in oil reserves and 2nd in natural gas reserves turning off its lights to save energy.

North Korea welcomes Iran to land of the darkness

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[925boy]

It would be a safe bet that Iran will push for a deal.

Push a deal for what? Iran never begged for a deal before so why would Iran do so today when its still at its relative strongest in modern times?

With such huge losses,

what huge losses? Iran's axis partners in the Levant took a hit, but they are still active and present and haven't been defeated. Short term visible theatrics by Israel and NATO doesn't mean things change in the region overnight.

something needs to be done so that they can go to the table with as much leverage as possible.

Iran and US are always at the table they just dont have progressive conversations that lead them to make deals to solve their issues.

US has no reason to compromise at this point.

Lol- while its ammunition is depleted from supplying Ukraine and Israel in their wars while also being afraid to deploy ground soldiers to these active conflict zones US is directly involved in? The Ukraine war alone can crack the back of this N A T O empire. EU feels naked, they provoked a war and now play vicitim to retaliation they may receive for starting the war.

 

[925boy]

Now, we will probably see a long-term civil war between terrorist groups in Syria

or/and possible regrouping of SAA elements into an armed resistance against the HTS/Turkey+ US+ Israeli proxies ruling Syria, sort of like how The Iraqi army formed the backbone of the resistance against US troops in Iraq.

 

[Shawnee]

Jolani is not US type and they will gradually get him killed by some group. He knows that well and knows well he has a fine line to dance.

US will bring his own man with the help of Arab monarchs.

Turkey has repeatedly shown losing to them in multiple front, such as case of Mursi.

 

[Immortals]

Push a deal for what? Iran never begged for a deal before so why would Iran do so today when its still at its relative strongest in modern times?

Strongest in modern times? In what sense?

Toman is in free fall. Hamas and Hezbollah are at their weakest in decades. Syria is jihadi-Stan.

Remember Soviet Union didn’t fall because it didn’t have enough nukes or manpower or capable military or enough allies. It fell because it couldn’t compete with Capitalism and went broke.

Iran economically is headed towards possible irrelevance (ie Venezuela like conditions). The Chinese haven’t been of economic help. The Russians are competitors in energy markets and lack foreign capital themselves.

Iran is weak in domestic production of:
*semiconductor production
*GPU production (for AI based technologies)
*CPU production
*Quantum computing

These are basic staples any world power needs to stand on its feet in 22nd century. Does Iran plan to buy US GPUs/CPUs on black market or Chinese GPUs and CPUs for the rest of time?

sort of like how The Iraqi army formed the backbone of the resistance against US troops in Iraq.

That’s not true at all.

The backbone of the resistance in Iraq was Sadr’s Mehdi Army and Badr Organization and various proto Iran backed militias.

The Iraqi army dissolved and Baathist elements were lead by Saddam’s uncle to conduct sectarian attacks on Shiites and aligned itself with Al-Queda (Zarqawai) and later with ISIS.

 

[Shawnee]

We have to know we have multiple strengths and weaknesses.

While we have advantages in missiles and drones and nuclear (assuming secret facilities exist), we need improvements in infrastructure optimization from better refinery production to chip manufacturing (ambitious now)

Chip export is more ambitious for us than having 500 nukes.

Losing Syria, decreases our friction with Israel naturally.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Push a deal for what? Iran never begged for a deal before so why would Iran do so today when its still at its relative strongest in modern times?

End of sanctions

what huge losses? Iran's axis partners in the Levant took a hit, but they are still active and present and haven't been defeated. Short term visible theatrics by Israel and NATO doesn't mean things change in the region overnight.

Syria is gone and Hezbollah is practically neutralized. Realistically anytime they want to, "Israel" will just massacre thousands of civilians again and force Hezbollah to a ceasefire if they need to. They do not have an adequate response to deter such a strategy.

 

[Nevsky]

Much like the Taliban, Jolani knows he should keep Iran as a neutral party until his fortunes turn better.

Or he just try to be as pragmatic as possible so he can rule some chuck of land. No need to make Iran an enemy, try to just keep a distance.

No need to fight Israel, yea they can occupy few hundreds kilometers of land, its not a big deal since you took 10 times the size of Idlib in the last 2 weeks.

No need to kick the Russian bases out, cuz you can make nice money from them. Im not sure how much are we paying for them, I have seen that the maintenance of the Russian military sites in Syria is like 3 million USD per day. And speculations that the base rents will go up are already starting in the Russian media. So they can probably take 2-3-5 million per week from these bases, with that Jolani can probably easy pay the salaries of his terrorists buddies and keep them happy and loyal at least for some time.

 

[Shawnee]

Sanction will never end with a deal
Move on

 

[Shawnee]

Many energy turbines in Syria are made in Iran.
Grids are Iranian in many occasions.

Syria will need some Iranian engineering soon from MAPNA

 

[Immortals]

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[Immortals]

We have to know we have multiple strengths and weaknesses.

While we have advantages in missiles and drones and nuclear (assuming secret facilities exist), we need improvements in infrastructure optimization from better refinery production to chip manufacturing (ambitious now)

Chip export is more ambitious for us than having 500 nukes.

Easier said than done.

Iran’s energy sector needs $250B in investments to modernize and stay afloat according to oil minister

Iran’s mining sector needs tens of billions

Iran’s roads and infrastructure needs tens of billions

Iran’s electrical grid needs tens of billions to overhaul and modernize the guide, but at least a few billion to fix power supply issues.

A domestic semiconductor and GPU/CPU program would cost over tens potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in investment.

Add in LNG domestic production and fleet of LNG ships

Add in medical modernization

Add in economic reforms

Etc

Etc

Iran’s total [foreign] investment needed over next decade: $500B to $750B USD


Good look finding that in Iranian capital markets.

 

[925boy]

Do you think it is easy to make weapons? Advanced weapons require extensive infrastructure, which Hezbollah and Lebanon do not have

But Hezbollah produces some weapons in Lebanon that are of Iranian origin/design etc. I dunno how advanced Hezbollah's domestic defence industry is, but it seems to be sufficient enough to bog down Israel in the air and on the ground,especially in southern Lebanon and Northern Israel.