Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

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it's related to this:

Turkey detains 34 on suspicion of spying for Israel​

Turkey says it has seized 34 people who are alleged to have been involved in spying and planning abductions for Israel's Mossad intelligence agency.

Officials said 57 addresses were raided in Istanbul and elsewhere and they were still searching for 12 more suspects.

There was no immediate comment from Israel, but relations between the two countries have declined dramatically during Israel's war with Hamas.

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya shared video of Operation Mole taking place.

He said authorities had moved in after they had decided that Israeli intelligence was seeking to carry out "tactical tasks such as reconnaissance, pursuit, assault, and kidnapping against foreign nationals residing in our country".

Although he made no reference to Hamas, Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, issued a warning last month to Israel that it would be "doomed to pay a heavy price" if it tried to assassinate members of Hamas on Turkish soil.


link to Iran is unconfirmed as of now, we should wait for stronger evidence of that
 
it's bad timing since they are already waiting for the US response

Have they been waiting since 2010?

I am not sure why so afraid of war with Israel,

Any war with Israel is a war with US. US made that crystal clear after 10/7.

Israel is 1400-2000km away from major Iranian cities and they don't have air tanker fleet or navy carrier fleet like USA, they can do damage for sure

They have Jericho missiles that can strike Iranian assets and Iran has a very early ABM shield that likely won’t hold up.

Maybe lack of confidence in missiles to penetrate Israeli ABM shield. Once Israel/USA know Iranian missiles cannot penetrate ABM shield with much success, Iranian deterrence (if any is left)

They can penatrate on sheer volume alone as no ABM shield is designed to intercept 50-100 BMs at once.

The more worrying thing is Iran’s CM capability specifically anti ship. It has been shown by Houthi’s against US Navy the CMs have not been getting thru. While Iran will rely on swarm and numbers to evade the Navy shields, it is concerning how outdated Iran’s anti ship CM tech is.

Even Ukraine has had better success using CMs and anti ship missiles against the Russian than Iranian axis groups who have used hundreds of drones + CMs + BMs.

but if Iran can find IDF presence in a base in Azerbaijan, it would be a perfect target

Doubtful. It would risk angering the Turkic alliance specifically Turkey. It could cause unrest between North and South Azeribajian. As the attack on Pakistan soil showed, the blowback is a circus and headache of PR management.

Azeribajian is brainwashed society right now. Attacking the IDF advisors there can be a whole can of worms.
 
Have they been waiting since 2010?

Any war with Israel is a war with US. US made that crystal clear after 10/7.

They have Jericho missiles that can strike Iranian assets and Iran has a very early ABM shield that likely won’t hold up.
Well this time they are awaiting an imminent strike after 3 US soldiers were killed and 40+ were injured in an attack enabled by Iran. Last time one American contractor was killed, the US murdered Soleimani. A superpower is no joke

How many Jericho missiles do they have and how many are set up to use nuclear warheads? I doubt many are set up to use conventional warheads, they are primarily a tactical airforce power and strategic (nuclear) missile power
They can penatrate on sheer volume alone as no ABM shield is designed to intercept 50-100 BMs at once.

The more worrying thing is Iran’s CM capability specifically anti ship. It has been shown by Houthi’s against US Navy the CMs have not been getting thru. While Iran will rely on swarm and numbers to evade the Navy shields, it is concerning how outdated Iran’s anti ship CM tech is.

Even Ukraine has had better success using CMs and anti ship missiles against the Russian than Iranian axis groups who have used hundreds of drones + CMs + BMs.
probably true, but 1/50 penetrating vs 20/50 penetrating has a big difference in terms of deterrence. maybe iran would prefer that the penetration rate remains a mystery

Houthis haven't been using ASBMs in swarm tactics, most of the cargo ships they hit are hit with ASBMs but Houthis appear to have low numbers of ASBMs. Iran can combine ASCM ASBM drones UUVs submarine launched attacks etc

but I agree, Iranian ASCMs are not in a good state. Iran has been developing supersonic ASCM for almost 10 years now, hopefully close to entering service
Doubtful. It would risk angering the Turkic alliance specifically Turkey. It could cause unrest between North and South Azeribajian. As the attack on Pakistan soil showed, the blowback is a circus and headache of PR management.

Azeribajian is brainwashed society right now. Attacking the IDF advisors there can be a whole can of worms.
I don't know what north or South Azerbaijan are, only east and west Azerbaijan and then the fake state of Azerbaijan who stole our name

Pakistan is a nuclear power and has to maintain deterrence against India, Azerbaijan is a tiny tin pot dictatorship and hell bent on pursuing anti-Iran policies already. Israeli tv channels boast about Israeli presence in Azerbaijan, Iran can protest officially and give them a deadline to remove them so they can't complain Iran acted without warning (as much). but still I think the Israelis in Azerbaijan are mostly covert Mossad operatives and not uniformed IDF soldiers, so it's very hard to find / target them in overt military strikes
 
Well this time they are awaiting an imminent strike after 3 US soldiers were killed and 40+ were injured in an attack enabled by Iran. Last time one American contractor was killed, the US murdered Soleimani. A superpower is no joke

How many Jericho missiles do they have and how many are set up to use nuclear warheads? I doubt many are set up to use conventional warheads, they are primarily a tactical airforce power and strategic (nuclear) missile power

probably true, but 1/50 penetrating vs 20/50 penetrating has a big difference in terms of deterrence. maybe iran would prefer that the penetration rate remains a mystery

Houthis haven't been using ASBMs in swarm tactics, most of the cargo ships they hit are hit with ASBMs but Houthis appear to have low numbers of ASBMs. Iran can combine ASCM ASBM drones UUVs submarine launched attacks etc

but I agree, Iranian ASCMs are not in a good state. Iran has been developing supersonic ASCM for almost 10 years now, hopefully close to entering service

I don't know what north or South Azerbaijan are, only east and west Azerbaijan and then the fake state of Azerbaijan who stole our name

Pakistan is a nuclear power and has to maintain deterrence against India, Azerbaijan is a tiny tin pot dictatorship and hell bent on pursuing anti-Iran policies already. Israeli tv channels boast about Israeli presence in Azerbaijan, Iran can protest officially and give them a deadline to remove them so they can't complain Iran acted without warning (as much). but still I think the Israelis in Azerbaijan are mostly covert Mossad operatives and not uniformed IDF soldiers, so it's very hard to find / target them in overt military strikes
Neutrino discusses exactly this in one of 'his' videos in great detail. Iran is far superior in conventional missile tech. Zionia has a perceived nuclear advantage -- which I believe Iran has a counter for as well.
 
I see some are asking, why isn't Iran responding to some of these Israeli or U.S attacks

Iran is playing, smart

Israel has already been hit and hit hard both by Hamas and Hezbollah, also by its own failures and actions that took Israel in early October where it was planning regional connectivity to today where it's a evil genocidal pariah, the west thin veneer of morality has been decimated

Iran doesn't need to respond to every action with a knee jerk reaction, unless red lines are crossed Iran can plan and supply and build up forces and make life for Israel and it's enemies incredibly difficult


On a final note, don't let anyone deny this point, Iran has EARNED RESPECT far and wide, the Arab regimes have been pathetic, the rest of the Muslim world have been not far off with the arabs blocking meaningful action
Iran has been incredible considering the circumstances
A strong Iran is central to the Muslim world going forward
 
Surprised this is the first time such a thing is recorded

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Well this time they are awaiting an imminent strike after 3 US soldiers were killed and 40+ were injured in an attack enabled by Iran. Last time one American contractor was killed, the US murdered Soleimani. A superpower is no joke

US rather not answer this attack, but when you draw a redline at US deaths and don’t follow thru then you end up getting an enemy that strikes more and more.


How many Jericho missiles do they have and how many are set up to use nuclear warheads? I doubt many are set up to use conventional warheads, they are primarily a tactical airforce power and strategic (nuclear) missile power

They have missile submarines and conventional warheads for BMs. Their LORA missile is similar to Fateh TBM.

I doubt Israel would have difficulty switching 20-40 missiles to conventional warheads and using them on key Iranian assets like oil terminals, key military sites, and other high value targets.


probably true, but 1/50 penetrating vs 20/50 penetrating has a big difference in terms of deterrence. maybe iran would prefer that the penetration rate remains a mystery

There is some benefit to not giving your enemy data. But Houthi’s are already using many Iranian based missiles that the west has accumulated data on.

Houthis haven't been using ASBMs in swarm tactics, most of the cargo ships they hit are hit with ASBMs but Houthis appear to have low numbers of ASBMs. Iran can combine ASCM ASBM drones UUVs submarine launched attacks etc

None of the cargo ships have sunk. Now is that dude to lacking a proper warhead on purpose or a short coming of the weapon system.
but I agree, Iranian ASCMs are not in a good state. Iran has been developing supersonic ASCM for almost 10 years now, hopefully close to entering service

Agreed. Most of Iran’s anti CMs are based on Chinese C-802 family. Upgrades can only take things so far.

Pakistan is a nuclear power and has to maintain deterrence against India, Azerbaijan is a tiny tin pot dictatorship and hell bent on pursuing anti-Iran policies already.

Yes and they are brainwashed highly zealous group at the moment. Iran has its own Azeri population to take into account and doesn’t want to inflame tensions. We saw this during Armenia v Azerbaijan conflict, where Iran largely stayed out of it even though Azerbaijan was increasing the hateful rhetoric against Iran alongside that baboon Erodogan and his Ottoman wet dreams.

Israeli tv channels boast about Israeli presence in Azerbaijan, Iran can protest officially and give them a deadline to remove them so they can't complain Iran acted without warning (as much).

This is rational suggestion.

but still I think the Israelis in Azerbaijan are mostly covert Mossad operatives and not uniformed IDF soldiers, so it's very hard to find / target them in overt military strikes

As I said earlier, Azerbaijan uses a lot of Israeli weapon systems, once of which is the LORA TBM which is similar to shorter range Fateh missiles.

Likely IDF personnel and advisors and Israeli weapon specialists routinely visit Israel.

There is also the very peculiar case of a drone that breached deep into Iran back in the day and approached Natanz where it was finally shot down. This was years ago before the recent rise of the shadow war sabatoge.

Iran said the drone came from the North which means Azeribajian. And travel from there to Natanz. The only regional country that has that capability is Israel. I believe Israeli Mossad or IDF used Azeribajian as the launching pad to probe Iranian defenses at the time.
 
Surprised this is the first time such a thing is recorded

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just less than 2 second was the difference in time for being iron domed or not get iron domed
 
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Iran signals to the US that MV Behshad is off limits


Of course! Pas chi?! Those are our men and that would be a direct hit to Iran by US. Iran would have to respond otherwise they would set a precedent that their naval forces is free game, which would be criminally suicidal.
 
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Massive face saving PR stunt from NYT
 
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Some accounts reported airstrikes in Syria in past hour, but that is now being denied as false.
 
This is worse than 2017 Syria, this is a first one in US history

They are giving the exact time of when they are going to strike

Everyone literally has time to swim in a hotel until getting in safety

It could also be a bait...
 
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I'm pretty sure we heard the same thing 48 hours ago. Iran clearly has shown their red lines and let's face it the US have been scratching their heads to formulate where to hit in light of them.
 
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Some accounts reported airstrikes in Syria in past hour, but that is now being denied as false.

Washington David City and pentagon is designed like 5 sides star of david
 

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