Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Ansar Allah fired 2 ballistic missiles at Israel overnight, setting off sirens in central Israel but being intercepted

Ansar Allah has now fired 41 ballistic missiles at Israel in the last 10 weeks since March 18th (when Israel resumed its genocide in Gaza) = average of 4.1 ballistic missiles per week

20-30 required interception but assuming Israel used at least 2 interceptors per Yemeni missile, this has forced Israel to use c. 50 interceptors (mostly Arrow-3 and THAAD) in the past 2.5 months

most estimates suggest Israel has c. 200-300 Arrow interceptors in its inventory, and it has 2 THAAD batteries from the US which likely includes 192 total interceptors (each battery has 48 interceptors + 48 reloads).

this means Israel has likely used at least 10% of their exoatmospheric ABM interceptor stockpile to defend against Yemeni ballistic missiles in the last 2.5 months.
 
Analysis of Yemeni ballistic missiles fired at Israel:

2025 total: 48 missiles fired, 35 intercepted (including 3 partial interceptions where missile caused casualties / damage), 1 successful impact and 12 missiles fell short. 75% of missiles fired reached Israel and required interception (36/48).

total since October 2023: 86 missiles fired, 62 intercepted (including 5 partial interceptions), 2 successful impacts and 22 missiles fell short. 74% of missiles fired reached Israel and required interception (64/86).

in the first 5 months of this year alone (including 2 months ceasefire), Israel attempted to intercept 36 missiles, likely using 72+ Arrow-3 and THAAD interceptors (conservatively assuming 2 interceptors per missile).

failure rate of Yemeni missiles is c. 25% (percentage of missiles fired which do not reach Israel / do not require interception), which is acceptable given these missiles are assembled locally in Yemen and being used very far beyond their designed maximum range of c. 1400-1600km.
 
Arabs negotiate with Americans on how they can sellout Palestine and their own military capabilities in exchange of money and protection to the Tomato-Kings

Iran negotiates on it's nuclear file without changing it's policies towards Palestine and the resistance.

If "Iran is doing nothing" as you say, then your countries should stop giving security guarantees to Israel and remove the American bases inside your lands, this is exactly what "doing nothing" means.

Do "nothing" like Iran then if it's "nothing".

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Rare instance of AngloTurkoJew funded Lebanese army defending its country
 
Persian Gulf said:
Arabs negotiate with Americans on how they can sellout Palestine and their own military capabilities in exchange of money and protection to the Tomato-Kings

Iran negotiates on it's nuclear file without changing it's policies towards Palestine and the resistance.

If "Iran is doing nothing" as you say, then your countries should stop giving security guarantees to Israel and remove the American bases inside your lands, this is exactly what "doing nothing" means.

Do "nothing" like Iran then if it's "nothing".

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Click to expand...

Yes, we are witnessing brutal war of the narrative perception... Special war for the control over TD right reserved source of 'the truth'...

Arabic rich regimes are ready to buy mercenary armies for their own battles, but Iran is coward, the only one that dares to openly attacks entity's land is the chicken here...

The coward Iran went through the bloodiest war after ww2, it's hard to find any proxies that defended Iranian land against insane Saddam million soldiers sized army...very, very hard...
And it is not Iranian fault that all those allies in the region have no other choice to get support but Iran...

They are trying to make plot twisting interpretation, a looong story about everything and everyone, but Iran is the bad guy in the end and that is the point of the movie...
 
tsunset said:
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Rare instance of AngloTurkoJew funded Lebanese army defending its country
Click to expand...

JerusalemPost already alarmed that Lebanese army is under Hezbollah's influence, there are some rogue military elements out of zionistic control... they always have good sources...
 
Hamas still cooking Merkava tanks
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shapurzolaktaf said:
Iran is taking the long path, but the fruit of its effort will taste sweeter. Break the sanctions and build up a strong economy and increase influence. Africa, EurAsia, Latin America, enough people and places for trade.
Iran has enough leverage to change the situation; regional allies, nucleair program, possible missile exports to Russia, increasing missile range, trade arteries such as hormuz, bab al mandab etc.
Click to expand...
When is this going to happen? Any time frame? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? 100 years? Because so far, more than 20 years have passed and it's only getting worse.
 
ShapurII said:
When is this going to happen? Any time frame? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? 100 years? Because so far, more than 20 years have passed and it's only getting worse.
Click to expand...
I can't say, but we're closer than ever reaching certain benefits which can't be revised anymore. In persian we say taklifemoon roshan mishe be zoodi, especially until october.
 
ShapurII said:
When is this going to happen? Any time frame? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? 100 years? Because so far, more than 20 years have passed and it's only getting worse.
Click to expand...
Remember the 12 demands by pompeo? It seems 11 are gone now... and the 1 which is left, maybe less than half of it will remains for them.

Iranian diplomats are doing well and working hard for our national interests, hand in hand with our nucleair scientists.

The strategic goal was set a while ago by the leader: removal of sanctions the scientists and diplomats are working accordingly.

Lets hope for positive outcome so that we smell the burning flesh of the ill wishers inside and outside.
 
shapurzolaktaf said:
Remember the 12 demands by pompeo? It seems 11 are gone now... and the 1 which is left, maybe less than half of it will remains for them.

Iranian diplomats are doing well and working hard for our national interests, hand in hand with our nucleair scientists.

The strategic goal was set a while ago by the leader: removal of sanctions the scientists and diplomats are working accordingly.

Lets hope for positive outcome so that we smell the burning flesh of the ill wishers inside and outside.
Click to expand...
Both sides have comrpomised. Pompeo's 12 demands were nonrealistic to begin with, but Iran has compromised a lot as well. Our biggest compromise was to move from "Entegham-e Sakht" to negotiation with the Trump administration. Also, don't forget that Trump has removed all those Iran hawks from the Pentagon. So, it's different this time.

The strategic goal will probably not get fully achieved at this point. I'm not optimistic like you are. The West, or basically any opponent, responds to power. It is impossible to negotiate without cards and leverages and we have fewer cards this time.

Compared to 2013, we are at a weaker position. The US is also at a weaker position fortunately. But on our own side, we've done really terrible.
The problem this time is Europe. The JCPOA was a treason on so many levels, but the snapback mechanism is one of those treasons that future generations will read about it in history books and it will be asked on history exams lol The Europeans are not going to give it up easily. It basically gives them control over Iran without anything in return.
 
ShapurII said:
Both sides have comrpomised. Pompeo's 12 demands were nonrealistic to begin with, but Iran has compromised a lot as well. Our biggest compromise was to move from "Entegham-e Sakht" to negotiation with the Trump administration. Also, don't forget that Trump has removed all those Iran hawks from the Pentagon. So, it's different this time.

The strategic goal will probably not get fully achieved at this point. I'm not optimistic like you are. The West, or basically any opponent, responds to power. It is impossible to negotiate without cards and leverages and we have fewer cards this time.

Compared to 2013, we are at a weaker position. The US is also at a weaker position fortunately. But on our own side, we've done really terrible.
The problem this time is Europe. The JCPOA was a treason on so many levels, but the snapback mechanism is one of those treasons that future generations will read about it in history books and it will be asked on history exams lol The Europeans are not going to give it up easily. It basically gives them control over Iran without anything in return.
Click to expand...
I believe US at least wanted 3-4 out of 12, which they wont get anymore (thanks to Trump).
We didnt compromis that much, attacked the enemy different times and showed that our missiles have deadly outcomes in an all-out situation.

I'm also not optimistic, but at least this time we're closer.

I do believe the opposite tbh, west is weaker than 2013, their reputation and soft power is destroyed, their financial situation is worse and they're in a difficult hot war (Russia-Ukraine) and cold war (Iran-China) and internal divide of trans-atlantic partnership and polarization in their societies (left VS right, Conservative VS Liberal/progressive). Add to that Israel is in big trouble, their military stocks much less. They have way more troubles compared to 2013 and way more problems.

Hence, they have to compromis way more than what they wish.
 
Yemen fires 19th ballistic missile at Israel in May 2025, 16th interception claimed by Israel (1 impacted Ben Gurion airport and 2 fell short of Israel)

89.5% success rate (17/19) of reaching Israel and requiring interception from Yemeni missiles assembled locally and launched from 2100km+ range (far beyond designed range) this month

19 missiles is also the most missiles fired by Yemen at Israel in a single month ever. The 2 month American bombing campaign of Yemen does not seem effective.
 
shapurzolaktaf said:
I believe US at least wanted 3-4 out of 12, which they wont get anymore (thanks to Trump).
We didnt compromis that much, attacked the enemy different times and showed that our missiles have deadly outcomes in an all-out situation.

I'm also not optimistic, but at least this time we're closer.

I do believe the opposite tbh, west is weaker than 2013, their reputation and soft power is destroyed, their financial situation is worse and they're in a difficult hot war (Russia-Ukraine) and cold war (Iran-China) and internal divide of trans-atlantic partnership and polarization in their societies (left VS right, Conservative VS Liberal/progressive). Add to that Israel is in big trouble, their military stocks much less. They have way more troubles compared to 2013 and way more problems.

Hence, they have to compromis way more than what they wish.
Click to expand...
We said we would never negotiate with Trump, we are.
We said we would rebuild IR-40, we haven't done anything.
We said we would convert our UF6 into uranium metal, we haven't.
We said we would increase our enrichment capacity to 190,000 SWU UF6/year, we haven't.
We said we would start 90% uranium enrichment to provide fuel for nuclear submarines, we haven't.
We said we would inject a communication satellite into GEO by 2017, then 2020, then 2025, we haven't and we won't do such a thing anytime soon.

The thing is that we have been cornered. Our military is getting weaker. Our science production is diminishing. Our economy is on the verge of collapse. Our energy infrastructure is on the verge of collapse. Dissatisfaction is at its peak.
We have lost our logistics to arm Hezbollah. Syria fell, Hezbollah has been weakened. The situation in Iraq is not in our favor as much as it used to be.

Do I need to continue? We need this deal. The US, not so much. The US can do fine without us but we really need this deal. The US will milk Arabs just like they did two weeks ago to cover for their poor relations with Iran but who can we rely on?
All of our allies leech off of us and they have proven to be completely useless when push comes to shove.
 
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