Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

[Persian Gulf]

Per ISIS Iran’s breakout time is now zero:

Whatever Happened to Biden’s Iran Policy?

Washington now has to treat Tehran as a de facto nuclear power.

foreignpolicy.com

ISIS claims that Iran's "breakout time" has been zero since 2022:

"In 2022, for the first time, Iran’s breakout time became zero, indicating an extreme threat and a score of 30 (Extreme Danger). Iran has more than enough 60 percent enriched uranium, or highly enriched uranium (HEU) to directly fashion a nuclear explosive.

If Iran wanted to further enrich its 60 percent enriched uranium up to 90 percent weapon-grade uranium (WGU), used in Iran’s known nuclear weapons designs from the Amad Plan, it could do so quickly. It can break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in a week, using only a fraction of its 60 percent enriched uranium. This breakout could be difficult for inspectors to detect promptly, if Iran took steps to delay inspectors’ access.

Using its remaining stock of 60 percent enriched uranium and its stock of near 20 percent enriched uranium, it could have in total enough weapon-grade uranium for six weapons in one month, and after five months of producing weapon-grade uranium, it could have enough for 12. 27 (Five nuclear weapons were the original goal of Iran’s Amad Plan.)

Moreover, over the last few years, Iran has learned important lessons in breaking out to nuclear weapons by experimenting with and practicing shortcuts in multi-step enrichment.

• Iran started from a level below 5 percent enriched uranium and enriched directly to near 60 percent in one cascade, rather than using two steps, a slower process entailing the intermediate production of 20 percent enriched uranium.
• It built and tested equipment to feed 20 percent enriched uranium and withdraw HEU, possibly enriched to higher than 60 percent; the exact level is unknown. Iran remixed the enriched product with the less enriched waste tails after measuring the product’s enrichment level.
• Iran prepared advanced centrifuge cascades to switch more easily from the production of five percent enriched uranium to 20 percent enriched uranium.
• It further developed a multi-cascade set up to produce 20 percent enriched uranium from natural uranium by making 5 percent enriched uranium in advanced centrifuges and then directly feeding this product, still in gaseous hexafluoride form, into IR-1 centrifuge cascades to make near 20 percent enriched uranium. As such, Iran was practicing multi-step enrichment needed to produce weapon-grade uranium while seeking to shortcut the process."

The Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Reaching Extreme Danger | Institute for Science and International Security

ISIS is a non-profit, non-partisan institution providing public knowledge of nuclear proliferation and international security.

isis-online.org

 

[Persian Gulf]

Imagery Update: Construction is Ongoing at the Natanz Tunnel Facility​

This report is an imagery update from earlier reports on the construction of a new Iranian centrifuge assembly facility, to be buried deep under Kolang Gaz La mountain, located south of the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant.

Commercial satellite imagery acquired over the last year and a half shows that three years after excavation commenced for the new tunnel facility in the fall of 2020, construction is still ongoing.

While the four tunnel entrances were largely complete as of October 2022, the main Western tunnel entrance continued to be strengthened and reinforced, and security structures were added around the site, signs of continuous efforts by Iran to increase the hardness and survivability of the site. The modest, but continuous growth in the large spoil piles located near the Western and Eastern tunnel entrances throughout 2023 indicates that while initial tunneling is complete, construction inside the tunnel complex, likely related to the finishing of the underground rooms, is ongoing.

Recent images from September 2023 and January 2024 still show frequent vehicular movement, particularly the movement of dump trucks and other heavy machinery along the Western and Eastern spoil piles. Further, recent imagery still shows no visible external signs of heating, cooling, and ventilation installed at the site that would indicate an advanced stage of construction.

The slower-than-expected pace of construction makes it unclear when the facility will actually become operational, but it may not become fully operational in 2024.

Given that this facility replaces an above-ground facility at Natanz destroyed in the summer of 2021, Iran’s original goal of quickly replacing this destroyed facility has failed.

There is no new information clarifying concerns about whether Iran will also build a gas centrifuge facility under this mountain, in essence deploying many of the assembled advanced centrifuges in an adjacent underground room. Iran’s refusal to fulfill the obligations under modified Code 3.1 of its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) to declare new nuclear facilities such as uranium enrichment plants in the design phase, and continued lack of full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), complicates addressing this concern.

Imagery Update: Construction is Ongoing at the Natanz Tunnel Facility | Institute for Science and International Security

ISIS is a non-profit, non-partisan institution providing public knowledge of nuclear proliferation and international security.

isis-online.org

Construction is progressing at the new underground centrifuge assembly/enrichment site near Natanz. Progress is slower than expected and it is unlikely to become operational in 2024, however serious steps are being taken to enhance the survivability of the site and, once completed, it will be even harder to reach than the Fordow enrichment facility.

 

[Zarathustra]

Imagery Update: Construction is Ongoing at the Natanz Tunnel Facility​

This report is an imagery update from earlier reports on the construction of a new Iranian centrifuge assembly facility, to be buried deep under Kolang Gaz La mountain, located south of the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant.

Commercial satellite imagery acquired over the last year and a half shows that three years after excavation commenced for the new tunnel facility in the fall of 2020, construction is still ongoing.

While the four tunnel entrances were largely complete as of October 2022, the main Western tunnel entrance continued to be strengthened and reinforced, and security structures were added around the site, signs of continuous efforts by Iran to increase the hardness and survivability of the site. The modest, but continuous growth in the large spoil piles located near the Western and Eastern tunnel entrances throughout 2023 indicates that while initial tunneling is complete, construction inside the tunnel complex, likely related to the finishing of the underground rooms, is ongoing.

Recent images from September 2023 and January 2024 still show frequent vehicular movement, particularly the movement of dump trucks and other heavy machinery along the Western and Eastern spoil piles. Further, recent imagery still shows no visible external signs of heating, cooling, and ventilation installed at the site that would indicate an advanced stage of construction.

The slower-than-expected pace of construction makes it unclear when the facility will actually become operational, but it may not become fully operational in 2024.

Given that this facility replaces an above-ground facility at Natanz destroyed in the summer of 2021, Iran’s original goal of quickly replacing this destroyed facility has failed.

There is no new information clarifying concerns about whether Iran will also build a gas centrifuge facility under this mountain, in essence deploying many of the assembled advanced centrifuges in an adjacent underground room. Iran’s refusal to fulfill the obligations under modified Code 3.1 of its comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA) to declare new nuclear facilities such as uranium enrichment plants in the design phase, and continued lack of full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), complicates addressing this concern.

Imagery Update: Construction is Ongoing at the Natanz Tunnel Facility | Institute for Science and International Security

ISIS is a non-profit, non-partisan institution providing public knowledge of nuclear proliferation and international security.

isis-online.org

Construction is progressing at the new underground centrifuge assembly/enrichment site near Natanz. Progress is slower than expected and it is unlikely to become operational in 2024, however serious steps are being taken to enhance the survivability of the site and, once completed, it will be even harder to reach than the Fordow enrichment facility.

 

[jauk]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/10/iran-nuclear-bomb-iaea-fordow/

 

[FuturePAF]

This is probably the time where Iran wishes it had its own nukes or could “borrow” a few dozen nukes from North Korea.

Ultimately, if they had one of the North Korean H bombs (250 kt yield on the last test) and did an underground test, it would change the whole regional dynamic around deterrence of escalation.

 

[jauk]

This is probably the time where Iran wishes it had its own nukes or could “borrow” a few dozen nukes from North Korea.

Ultimately, if they had one of the North Korean H bombs (250 kt yield on the last test) and did an underground test, it would change the whole regional dynamic around deterrence of escalation.

No wishing needed. Iran has nukes.

 

[jauk]

This is a credible account but I see no chatter elsewhere:

 

[tsunset]

This is a credible account but I see no chatter elsewhere:

I see it nowhere else

If only those twitter accounts could post a single link to their source it would be amazing

 

[Zarathustra]

 

[Zarathustra]

 

[Khorasan Black banners]

Iran's Top IRGC Commander:

Iran will change its nuclear policies and will make nuclear weapons if zionist regime strikes any of Iran's nuclear facilities, plus Iran will vanish zionist's nuclear facilities with advanced weapons [nuclear armed missiles]

Iran threatens to build nuclear bomb in face of Israel ‘revenge’ strike

IRAN says it might reassess its stance on nuclear weapons in an apparent threat to build an atomic bomb amid soaring tensions with Israel. The country warned it may pursue a nuclear weapon – …

www.the-sun.com

Iran threatens to target Israeli nuke facilities; Middle East on 'precipice' of bigger war

UN chief's comments came as Tehran warned it has the ability to strike Israeli nuclear sites if Israel targets Iran's nuclear facilities.

eu.usatoday.com

Iran warns it may change nuclear weapons stance in face of Israel, US announces sanctions

Iran has long maintained amid international skepticism that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only. It says that could shift if Israel attacks its atomic facilities.

eu.usatoday.com

 

[LegionnairE]

Iran's Top IRGC Commander:

Iran will change its nuclear policies and will make nuclear weapons if zionist regime strikes any of Iran's nuclear facilities plus Iran will completely destroy zionist's nuclear facilities with tactical weapons

Iran threatens to build nuclear bomb in face of Israel ‘revenge’ strike

IRAN says it might reassess its stance on nuclear weapons in an apparent threat to build an atomic bomb amid soaring tensions with Israel. The country warned it may pursue a nuclear weapon – …

www.the-sun.com

Iran threatens to target Israeli nuke facilities; Middle East on 'precipice' of bigger war

UN chief's comments came as Tehran warned it has the ability to strike Israeli nuclear sites if Israel targets Iran's nuclear facilities.

eu.usatoday.com

Iran warns it may change nuclear weapons stance in face of Israel, US announces sanctions

Iran has long maintained amid international skepticism that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only. It says that could shift if Israel attacks its atomic facilities.

eu.usatoday.com

a nuclear Iran is bad for the whole region but war is worse..

I hope this prevents war

 

[Khorasan Black banners]

I think Iran wants to make 50 - hundreds destructive nukes before a republican takes seat in DC

Importing uranium from various countries have become several after yellow guy existed from JCPOA

Something in missile cities or other underground places is boiling under the surface besides missiles and other weapons

 

[Zarathustra]

a nuclear Iran is bad for the whole region but war is worse..

I hope this prevents war

Iran have never attacked anyone except for retaliation.
Nukes would be used exactly the same. As a deterrence.

When israel India and pak have nukes then why not Iran.

 

[OldTwilight]

And little by little we are going in direction that I was saying in past 15 years : " Iran should have nukes."

We Iranians are tired of this cat and mouse game played by I.R.I about nukes ... There is not more meaningful sanction left to impose on us , so we have right to ask I.R.I to at least armed us with nukes.