Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

Flames In The Desert said:
I think we could all do with a damn good laugh in these troubled times with their daily doses of zionist horror.

Biden Administration Presses Allies Not to Confront Iran on Nuclear Program

Mirror for those who might have problems accessing the original site
https://archive.ph/OOxkp
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snapback ends October 2025

after that date, Iran's nuclear program will be insulated from UNSC sanctions

however, if the US/EU do snapback UNSC sanctions before then, all of this was a waste of time and put Iran back in the position it tried to escape (UNSC Chapter VII authority + UNSC embargo)

I find it hard to believe US (especially under Trump) or the Europeans will allow snapback to fall away without Iran committing to return to compliance (which in itself is unrealistic without the US in the deal). so what will Iran's response be? time to think and prepare for that now, not in September 2025.
 
Persian Gulf said:
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blatant promise to develop nuclear weapons if necessary by a very senior official ...
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This must be done without excuses. Honestly if Iran has not nukes, Iran is responsible of their fate in any future war.

Iranians must be responsable and don t do idiotic acts, to know to have nukes and don t have it becaus esanctions or because Russia opinates whatever...is stupid, is raw idiocy.

Hope iranians chose well and publish that, not need to hide that, US is not going to attack a strong nation Iran is. Do it simply, not excuses do that, simply, because is simply.

If Iran accepts any deal on this, Iran deserves to be humillated again.
 
Persian Gulf said:
snapback ends October 2025

after that date, Iran's nuclear program will be insulated from UNSC sanctions

however, if the US/EU do snapback UNSC sanctions before then, all of this was a waste of time and put Iran back in the position it tried to escape (UNSC Chapter VII authority + UNSC embargo)

I find it hard to believe US (especially under Trump) or the Europeans will allow snapback to fall away without Iran committing to return to compliance (which in itself is unrealistic without the US in the deal). so what will Iran's response be? time to think and prepare for that now, not in September 2025.
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Wasn't the snapback proposal in 2020 (or 2018 i don't remember) from the US was met with a heavy (if not all) negative vote from all the nations?

They proposed that snapback and it was refused with a majority negative, so which snapback are we talking about?
 
tsunset said:
Wasn't the snapback proposal in 2020 (or 2018 i don't remember) from the US was met with a heavy (if not all) negative vote from all the nations?

They proposed that snapback and it was refused with a majority negative, so which snapback are we talking about?
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they didn't use the formal snapback mechanism because only a member of the Joint Commission of the JCPOA can invoke that, and Trump stupidly withdrew from the JCPOA rather than just violate it

but his advisors are aware of this and will not make the same mistake twice. only ONE member of the Joint Commission has to invoke snapback for it to work.
 
jauk said:
Araghchi indicating possibly of revision of Iranian nuclear doctrine and policy:

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And the original:

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The big risk for the west is that snap back could potentially back fire catastrophically,ultimately bringing about the very thing that they want to try and [supposedly?] avoid,a nuclear armed iran.
Now the us doesnt give a sh!t about its european vassals,but in the event of an nuclear armed iran it would be those same european vassals who would be the first on the iranian nuclear target list,unlike the us[at least at present].I wonder,do you think they`d willing to voluntarily place the muzzle of an iranian nuclear gun up against their own temple just on uncle sams request?.Hard to say on that one.....
At this point I think that the west has pretty much shot its bolt as far as the economic weapons it can use against iran are concerned,and its not as tho iran is not without some economic weapons of its own these days,one only has to look at the situation in the red sea for example.
 
Flames In The Desert said:
The big risk for the west is that snap back could potentially back fire catastrophically,ultimately bringing about the very thing that they want to try and [supposedly?] avoid,a nuclear armed iran.
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well Iran also doesn't want to be back under UNSC embargo with no way out without US approval, permanently dependent on Chinese/Russian veto to prevent Chapter VII action

Iran needs to accumulate 60% HEU at far higher pace to acquire a significant stockpile ready for quick conversion to WGU, and signal in advance that if UNSC sanctions are snapped back, we will leave the NPT immediately and enrich to 90% HEU. then the West will understand the consequences of their actions. they will bark a lot but Iran has to set its red lines and control the narrative about where fault lies in this scenario (snap back = act of aggression and escalation)
 
Persian Gulf said:
well Iran also doesn't want to be back under UNSC embargo with no way out without US approval, permanently dependent on Chinese/Russian veto to prevent Chapter VII action

Iran needs to accumulate 60% HEU at far higher pace to acquire a significant stockpile ready for quick conversion to WGU, and signal in advance that if UNSC sanctions are snapped back, we will leave the NPT immediately and enrich to 90% HEU. then the West will understand the consequences of their actions. they will bark a lot but Iran has to set its red lines and control the narrative about where fault lies in this scenario (snap back = act of aggression and escalation)
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Would both Russia and China back this and make Iran weaker and so US-West even stronger? Highly unlikely.


Iran needs to see just how much damage full western(in effect European) sanctions can do, taking into account they have also sanctioned Russia and so options are limited, and then decide the benefit of fully going nuclear, even without a public declaration.

It is not just a case of being able to assemble a bomb "within weeks" but the testing and making sure it has reliable delivery systems to really make Iran invincible in the region.
 
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UKBengali said:
Would both Russia and China back this and make Iran weaker and so US-West even stronger? Highly unlikely.
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snapback doesn't need their support and cannot be vetoed

UKBengali said:
It is not just a cause of being able to assemble a bomb "within weeks" but the testing and making sure it has reliable delivery systems to really make Iran invincible in the region.
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Israel has no known nuclear tests
 
Persian Gulf said:
well Iran also doesn't want to be back under UNSC embargo with no way out without US approval, permanently dependent on Chinese/Russian veto to prevent Chapter VII action

Iran needs to accumulate 60% HEU at far higher pace to acquire a significant stockpile ready for quick conversion to WGU, and signal in advance that if UNSC sanctions are snapped back, we will leave the NPT immediately and enrich to 90% HEU. then the West will understand the consequences of their actions. they will bark a lot but Iran has to set its red lines and control the narrative about where fault lies in this scenario (snap back = act of aggression and escalation)
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Yes. I believe that's already being signaled.
 
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likely that the IAEA board will censure Iran for non-compliance next week

how will Iran respond?
 
Persian Gulf said:
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likely that the IAEA board will censure Iran for non-compliance next week

how will Iran respond?
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Historically, if the action is perceived as provocative, Iran in turn, ratchets up the brinksmanship.
 
jauk said:
Historically, if the action is perceived as provocative, Iran in turn, ratchets up the brinksmanship.
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if it was me i wouldn't ratchet it up too much in the next year or next year and half
after that the sky would be the limit.

if it was me even after that i'd have built a small reactor capable of powering our base ships and said look I've this and its legitimate for me to enrich up to 60% even more
 
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