Iranian Nuclear Doctrine

[ToddE]

I think that 8 X 5kT devices are adequate to give any attacker serious reason for pause.
Imagine even a large country suffering even just 4 hits to counter-value targets. Meaning large population centers.

By the time Trump takes or settles in Oval Office, the 60% enriched content will exceed the quantity required for 90% WGU for roughly ~40 x devices of 1-5 KT yield. That enough deterrent to scare any enemy with Iranian missile delivery system.

Is it happening? we dont know that but what we have confirmation for by IAEA itself is that Iran is rapidly enriching 60% U235 now, roughly 35 KG/month. The question is, what for?

... Such a level of intelligence penetration still failed to stop Iran from building a world-class delivery system that defeated worlds most advanced IADS/ABM shield.

So, how does this happen? ...

I think this could be a case of seeing what you see, and after a while become complacent - such as the establishment of say Iran's own because an IADS/ABM. This is something that progresses at its own pace across the Mid-Plus timeframe..

However, when it comes to nukes, if I was a betting man, I would say that Iran will suffer a debilitating and massive attack if it even tries to breakout. It won't be allowed to even get to the end of such a 'breakout' period. Why, because there will inevitably be a leak somewhere.

"massive attack" cant stop nuclearization, if anything it would rather motivate a decaying political system to weaponize at a more rapid pace. The Iranian revolution would have died an imploding death in 1980s had Saddam not attacked Iran with Western and USSR backing. The nation got rallied around political figures who were not inherently suitable for governing a rich nation. The same will happen again if the nuclear program is touched.

I posit that Russia is unlikely to give Iran nukes. North Korea *might* be so persuaded, because they do not give a dime about international sensitivities or sentiments. A nominal number (8?) will not dent their inventory.

Piet

Russia, Iran, DPRK have no nuclear relations with each other.

 

[OldTwilight]

Iran only option is to go nuclear or else it will become failed state and invaded ....

 

[ToddE]

Iran only option is to go nuclear or else it will become failed state and invaded ....

Its already latent nuclear-armed or what we can all as a pseudo-nuclear armed country with proper delivery system at MRBM/IRBM ranges and considerable quantities of borderline WGU.

The question remains, do Mullahs have the balls to announce the capability and brace for crippling sanctions that will follow? The west will try to make an example out of Iran for others in the region likes of KSA and Turkey for example to not follow Iran and get any strategic military arm. Although both of these countries are gripped by Anglo-jews by their balls through debt (Turkey) and stocks holdings (KSA).

My money is on a rather more realistic option. It will be foolish at this stage to think that Iran is producing 35 KG of 60% U235 per month for "peaceful purposes". Mullahs will use the reformist government to use this dangerous quantity as a bargaining chip for talks. Just by pure mathematics, if talks start or any ice is broken in Mid-2025, the 60% U235 will reach close to 400 KG of 60% U235, thats enough for an arsenal of 60-70 1-5Kt devices. Will the west stay quiet over this? not likely so they can either attack the nuclear sites which will mean nothing or they can start the talks which will most likely happen. Mullahs are trying to survive because they know their days are numbered without any outside factor creating chaos in Iran.

 

[OldTwilight]

Its already latent nuclear-armed or what we can all as a pseudo-nuclear armed country with proper delivery system at MRBM/IRBM ranges and considerable quantities of borderline WGU.

The question remains, do Mullahs have the balls to announce the capability and brace for crippling sanctions that will follow? The west will try to make an example out of Iran for others in the region likes of KSA and Turkey for example to not follow Iran and get any strategic military arm. Although both of these countries are gripped by Anglo-jews by their balls through debt (Turkey) and stocks holdings (KSA).

My money is on a rather more realistic option. It will be foolish at this stage to think that Iran is producing 35 KG of 60% U235 per month for "peaceful purposes". Mullahs will use the reformist government to use this dangerous quantity as a bargaining chip for talks. Just by pure mathematics, if talks start or any ice is broken in Mid-2025, the 60% U235 will reach close to 400 KG of 60% U235, thats enough for an arsenal of 60-70 1-5Kt devices. Will the west stay quiet over this? not likely so they can either attack the nuclear sites which will mean nothing or they can start the talks which will most likely happen. Mullahs are trying to survive because they know their days are numbered without any outside factor creating chaos in Iran.

West won't bargain unless they have parallel plan to neutralize Iran nuclear capabilities through negations then finish Iran off mean while ....

Just like JCPOA and their trigger mechanism. The JCPOA was supposed to stop Iran nuclear advance while sanctions were to cripple Iran in mean time and if they couldn't reach their goals in last year of JCPOA , they just use trigger mechanism and bring back all of their sanctions ...

 

[jauk]

By the time Trump takes or settles in Oval Office, the 60% enriched content will exceed the quantity required for 90% WGU for roughly ~40 x devices of 1-5 KT yield. That enough deterrent to scare any enemy with Iranian missile delivery system.

Is it happening? we dont know that but what we have confirmation for by IAEA itself is that Iran is rapidly enriching 60% U235 now, roughly 35 KG/month. The question is, what for?



"massive attack" cant stop nuclearization, if anything it would rather motivate a decaying political system to weaponize at a more rapid pace. The Iranian revolution would have died an imploding death in 1980s had Saddam not attacked Iran with Western and USSR backing. The nation got rallied around political figures who were not inherently suitable for governing a rich nation. The same will happen again if the nuclear program is touched.



Russia, Iran, DPRK have no nuclear relations with each other.

Correct! Note, however, although Russia is destroying her opponents in Ukraine through an intense attrition campaign on the cheap, they are still getting attacked on their mainland (pinpricks at best) and are losing assets via assassinations on occasion.

And they are a nuclear power.

Regardless, achieving nuclear status is a huge step in deterrence but it isn't enough. when going against a smaller non-nuclear proxy (i.e. 'Ukraine') or a nuclear one (i.e. Zionia). The tools need to be far more precise.

 

[ToddE]

West won't bargain unless they have parallel plan to neutralize Iran nuclear capabilities through negations then finish Iran off mean while ....

Just like JCPOA and their trigger mechanism. The JCPOA was supposed to stop Iran nuclear advance while sanctions were to cripple Iran in mean time and if they couldn't reach their goals in last year of JCPOA , they just use trigger mechanism and bring back all of their sanctions ...

Sanctions are coming under trump even if reformist government declares Iran as an Atheist Republic. The dilemma IRI is facing is that if they try to talk with US:

(1) They will have to give up enrichment+enriched quantity, so the fangs will be gone. The same mistake Libya, Iraq, Syria did. For now they will buy some time but in 3-5 years Iran will be attacked by foriegn funding, insurgencies etc.

(2) If they do not talk with US, Iran will face crippling sanctions with inflation so high because of shortage of USD that state will have a hard time functioning as a body. Even with high GDP PPP the lack of USD will do that, Russia is facing the same problem where their GDP PPP is increasing but lack of USD is resulting in inflation so a slow decay of the nation starts where youth becomes disenchanted with the centre.

Only possible way I see for Iran out of this trap is to take the route of nuclear ambiguity. Iran is already a latent-nuclear armed state with enough capability to take on and deter a regional nuclear-armed foe. Even if Iran freezes the further enrichment after mid-2025 the 60% enriched U235 will be enough to be driven into a large nuclear weapon arsenal if need be. Mullahs can do a "khatami" here and then bargain with US/EU to completely step out of regional conflicts involving Arabs and Israel. Stop their dreams of controlling the Mediterranean and Red sea shores, worship of Palestinians, axis of resistance, shia superpower and whatnot. That if (a BIG IF) AIPAC allows trump to talk to Iran. One helpful hint here is the Israel reluctance to go after Iranian nuclear program or oil infrastructure during their retaliation to TP2 along with US refusal to be part of any direct action against Iran. They do not want an all out war with Iran, its time to cash this oppurtunity otherwise by mid-next year Iranian state will start imploding from within.

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

Former head of Iran's nuclear agency, Mr. Fereydoun Abbasi:


Iran has different kinds of nuclear weapons and nuclear armed missiles since 1990's [5:50]

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[Khorasan Black Flags]

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[Persian Gulf]

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Euro-apes talking more about snapback of UNSC sanctions against Iran (deadline is October 2025)

they don't believe Iran will act on threats to leave NPT

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

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[Khorasan Black Flags]

Good review:

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[Khorasan Black Flags]

اصلاح طلبان تحویل بگیرن

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[Khorasan Black Flags]

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[Hack-Hook]

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non gonna happen as its against our constitutions.
also china will not do that as they consider lesser tonb as part of UAE

 

[Khorasan Black Flags]

non gonna happen as its against our constitutions.
also china will not do that as they consider lesser tonb as part of UAE

We need reformists off from power and so many of our power factors will increase with light speed