Israeli missile defences (deployed) - assessment and strategies

[Liquidator]

that is not public information ... but c. 400 seems reasonable based on known deployed systems

+ at least 400 more inventory for reloads

So,

2 interceptors per missile?

So that means in a wave of 1000 which is feasible only 200 will be targeted.

 

[Persian Gulf]

So,

2 interceptors per missile?

So that means in a wave of 1000 which is feasible only 200 will be targeted.

they dont target every missile

in TP2 it seems they didn't try to intercept missiles headed to Nevatim, preserving interceptors for the defence of Tel Aviv

so in reality they may use 1-4 interceptors per missile for city targets but 0-1 interceptors per missile for military targets (hence c. 40 impacts at Nevatim)

even 180 missiles from TP2 practically overwhelmed their defences and forced them to leave Nevatim undefended, but IRGC talks about building capabilities for much much bigger attacks in the future.

bigger issue with lack of accuracy. 100m CEP (optimistic assessment) is insufficient for a massive target like a air base

 

[HAIDER]

What is so religious, all worldwide defence assets deployed for Israel protection ...Something is not clear......

 

[ShapurII]

Why would Iran do such a thing unless it was afraid of the consequences?

Obviously. Who isn't afraid of going against the US military?

Also, it was a violation of the Iraqi sovereignty and it was better to avoid Iraqi casualties, even by mistake.

@Persian Gulf is doing a fine job in the Iranian section in my opinion. The Iranian section of PDF is a much calmer place because of his moderation. It used to be a troll fest.

 

[Musings]

Stick to the topic. Any issues take it to GHQ - don’t try to derail the thread boys……

 

[Persian Gulf]

Ansar Allah has now fired 41 ballistic missiles at Israel in the last 10 weeks since March 18th (when Israel resumed its genocide in Gaza) = average of 4.1 ballistic missiles per week

20-30 of those missiles required interception but assuming Israel used at least 2 interceptors per Yemeni missile, this has forced Israel to use c. 50 interceptors (mostly Arrow-3 and THAAD) in the past 2.5 months

most estimates suggest Israel has c. 200-300 Arrow interceptors in its inventory, and it has 2 THAAD batteries from the US which includes 192 total interceptors (each battery has 48 interceptors + 48 reloads).

this means Israel has likely used at least 10% of their exoatmospheric ABM interceptor stockpile to defend against Yemeni ballistic missiles in the last 2.5 months.

this doesn't account for the interceptors used to defend against c. 120 ballistic missiles fired by Iran in April 2024 and c. 180 ballistic missiles fired in October 2024.

 

[Nuffle]

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Compilation of Israel’s strategic long-range radar stations responsible for tracking ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere and guiding Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors.

These sites are home to EL/M-2080 “Green Pine” radars, a critical component of Israel’s multi-layered missile defense. Five confirmed radar locations:
• Ein Shemer Airbase (32.433626, 35.004408)
• Palmachim Airbase (31.877439, 34.697176)
• Ovda Airbase (29.915556, 34.944016)
• Nevatim Airbase (31.181053, 35.043472)
• Sdot Micha Defense Base

Two additional U.S. THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) installations are identified:
• Primary site: (31.498056, 34.805278), featuring 6 THAAD launch vehicles and a TPY-2 X-band radar (range up to 1300 km).
• Suspected second radar site also observed, indicating that ~30% of global THAAD launcher capacity may currently be deployed in Israel.

Notably, no known strikes have targeted these radar hubs despite their high value in missile defense coordination.

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Iranian allies have curated an incomplete list of the coordinates of critical Israeli military targets

The comprehensive effort covers critical sites like Iron Dome batteries, David’s Sling systems, Arrow missile defences, radar bases, and major airfields.

Military Site Locations and Coordinates

Nevatim Airbase
• Iron Dome Systems: 31.181454°N, 35.044247°E

Ovda Military Airbase
• Air Defence (AD) Systems (Arrow + David’s Sling): 29.923602°N, 34.953374°E
• Radar: 29.924120°N, 34.951785°E

Dimona
• Dimona 1: 31.010534°N, 35.140382°E
• Dimona 2: 31.003598°N, 35.194680°E
• Dimona 3 (Future AD Systems Deployment Area): 31.018964°N, 35.152313°E

Near Oren Adir Radar Base (David’s Sling, Arrow, Iron Dome)
• Oren Radir 1: 31.761713°N, 34.909674°E
• Oren Radir 2: 31.755231°N, 34.909762°E

 

[Shags101]

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This war has cost American taxpayers regardless 10s of billions of dollars and from what we have seen the benefits are becoming less and less of the Iranians don’t go for Hail Mary play right now after being justified decades ago that one day an attack will occur with Iranians as a whole backing a nuclear weapon it’s basically the end

 

[Kyussis]

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This is no where near accurate!

 

[Persian Gulf]

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THAAD site in Israel now has 10 launchers

 

[Kyussis]

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THAAD site in Israel now has 10 launchers

Good for them. Iran's hypersonic missiles were getting through before and they will get through again. Good way for them to expend a finite number of interceptors even faster than the last time!

 

[Persian Gulf]

Good for them. Iran's hypersonic missiles were getting through before and they will get through again. Good way for them to expend a finite number of interceptors even faster than the last time!

well they can produce more interceptors

10 THAAD launchers is a very large number, more than double what it was before. should not be underestimated

it just shows that Iran is not fighting just Israel but also the US which will use a significant amount of its own defensive capabilities directly to defend Israel

 

[Kyussis]

well they can produce more interceptors

10 THAAD launchers is a very large number, more than double what it was before. should not be underestimated

it just shows that Iran is not fighting just Israel but also the US which will use a significant amount of its own defensive capabilities directly to defend Israel

It took them 17 years to produce 900 missiles. They spent 148 in 12 days. The math is not on their side.

 

[Ali_Baba]

It took them 17 years to produce 900 missiles. They spent 148 in 12 days. The math is not on their side.

You have to assume they now understand this limitation and have looked to address it by scaling up the production capability, both to replace the missiles that were used aswell as having addition capacity.

 

[Kyussis]

You have to assume they now understand this limitation and have looked to address it by scaling up the production capability, both to replace the missiles that were used aswell as having addition capacity.

Is their any evidence that their production rate has increased from their 50 missiles per year rate? The U.S also needs Thaads for future conflicts with Russia, China and North Korea.