JF-17 PFX program

Ak01 said:
the problem is, with all of this is, there has to be a demand.

Its like how with CPEC, they built all this infrastructure, but in lots of places, nobody uses it.

In the same way, lets say Pakistan goes on an engine building adventure, we run into some issues:

Firstly, Lets say all the capability is there, what do we put them into and realistically how many can we order?

They say a new engine costs about 2bn usd to develop, but im guessing that is a number for someone with prior experience. If we add even a billion for cost overruns and facility setup etc, the question is, how many can we buy, or even sell?

who would we sell to? None of the jet producing countries.

How many would we buy? Realistically, as time goes on, the PAF is going to get smaller, they simply cant afford the costs associated with large scale procurement of NGFA's, especially if they're touching hundreds of millions of dollars per unit.

So we get stuck with the issue of scale. How many can we actually buy of offset this cost?

100? 200? i suspect, it may end up being one of the most expensive engines because we just simply dont have the scale, and nor the experience.

Look at India and Safran, they're committing to 7bn usd for AMCA engine development...

The same issue is found among ccruise missiles etc, we just dont have many, theres no large scale stockpiles etc, hence why we didnt see much action in sindoor, the situation is dire and will get worse over time
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Within Pakistan local requirements, there would be sufficient procurement capacity on consumables to be able to warrant, and justify and support the building of small ( cruise missiles/ucav's/uav's size) engines on an industrial scale that is economically viable and sustainable. It is these very consumables that Pakistan must have more strategic autonomy over.

For larger jet engines, it makes very little sense given Pakistan financial resources, and technical and financial barriers that need to be overcome. However, you can say the same thing for the Kaan jet for Turkieye? Its production run will be low, unless other countries are prepared to buy it. The business case does not exist for it, as the unit cost will be high so why bother ? Yes, Turkieye has more money than Pakistan, but given the number of projects they having to develop, it is an issue for them.

The same was for the T-50 that has grown over time to the FA-50, how many did South Korea expect to make when starting that projects. I don't think Pakistan can ever develop anything that has the same potential as these countries, but the business model for any military system makes little sense unless you need that capability itself and you need to have some strategic autonomy that you are prepared for.

I don't think we can simply dismiss the entire effort on the basis of some uses cases, that are logically not relevant or appropriate for Pakistan as a priority.

Given the development of the rocket force, where various systems roles transfer from strategic to conventional, I would expect a significant uptick in local procurement to build the military capability that is required for that role. Many missiles were not used partially due to the strategic nature of those systems and partially maybe stock levels. That is a lesson learnt from the conflict this year and for which I think we will start to see much larger scales of procurement as new local systems come online.

Cruise missiles/SOW/consumables is one space where Pakistan can become successful as it can build enough for its own needs to offset the R&D costs, and those systems can then be used for potential exports.
 
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Ak01 said:
the spur in LM solutions is because every vulture is giving it a shot, the barrier to entry is so low- find chinese supplier, apply company thapa, market and hope u can bag a contract.

heck, you even have energy companies in pak offering LM's. Its a low cost "eh whats the worst that can happen" move lol
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Well it's all about $ issue in the end for r&d, they would prefer low cost tot or off the shelf import. Rn Only AWC babus are making our own engines for CM
 
bravo_1 said:
Well it's all about $ issue in the end for r&d, they would prefer low cost tot or off the shelf import. Rn Only AWC babus are making our own engines for CM
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Wouldn't it make sense for those engines by AWC to be made able to other players? Given that AWC is a government organization and it has shown it can design, build and deploy engines for CMs, then why not use that capability to build a range of different engine sizes for different roles, that can be used in more local projects?

I don't think the problem is of technical capability in this smaller engines part of the market, or money(maybe some), the real problem seems to be a lack of common sense and joined up thinking. This is lack of joined up thinking a by product of the tribal, ego driven personality cult nature of all institutions and organizations in Pakistan ?
 
Michael said:
This is my response to the @FuturePAF's viewpoint.

In my personal opinion, developing aero engines at this stage is of no practical significance for Pakistan. Pakistan's top priority should be ensuring basic living standards for its citizens.
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Even the best of friends, will always think of what they decide to do is in their strategic national interest. There maybe a day that China decides, whatever is happening in Pakistan is not in its own strategic interests and turns off the tap of supplies. It happens. That is why having some level of strategic autonomy over some things such as consumables is very important.

As I have said in a number of posts, I do think there is sufficient demand locally in Pakistan to warrant and justify the building of small jet engines for cruise missiles, sow, uavs, ucavs in Pakistan that is economically viable and sustainable and in Pakistan strategic national interests.
 
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Ali_Baba said:
Wouldn't it make sense for those engines to be able to other players? Given that AWC has shown it can design, build and deploy engines for CMs, then why not use that capability to build a range of different engine sizes for different roles, that can be used in more local projects?

I don't think the problem is of technical capability in this part of the market, or money, there seems to be a lack of common sense and joined up thinking...
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Nastp was built for that, but the thing is they would prefer mature platform. Alot of panic induction is going on after may conflict
 
bravo_1 said:
Nastp was built for that, but the thing is they would prefer mature platform. Alot of panic induction is going on after may conflict
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To me, NATSP is more of a integration design house, that can take local, and oversea technologies to build a product like a cruise missile, or UAV etc.

The point I want to make, is that Pakistan has sufficient demand to build an organization that specializes in the design and build of small jet engines for cruise missiles, SOW, UAV and UCAVs and that organization will be financially viable. Pakistan cannot build the next Rolls Royce, but it should be able to build a smaller version of Motor Sich if it starts with small jet engines for cruise missiles, SOW, UAV and UCAVs etc. That same organization can then start to take over the building of engines for all the ballistic missiles that Pakistan needs. That way you can drive economies of scale of people and knowledge to build new products without needing to spin up another organization every time you need a new product

Pakistan needs to develop specialized organizations around the development of radar technology and deployable radars, as well as jet engines.

Most of all these small new companies that are spinning up feel more like job creation schemes for generals to go and retire at, then an actual effective "industrial strategy" to build an economically viable industry to me.

Question, how many different organizations does Pakistan have right now, all trying to build radars ?
 
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Ali_Baba said:
To me, NATSP is more of a integration design house, that can take local, and oversea technologies to build a product like a cruise missile, or UAV etc.

The point I want to make, is that Pakistan has sufficient demand to build an organization that specializes in the design and build of small jet engines for cruise missiles, SOW, UAV and UCAVs and that organization will be financially viable. Pakistan cannot build the next Rolls Royce, but it should be able to build a smaller version of Motor Sich if it starts with small jet engines for cruise missiles, SOW, UAV and UCAVs etc. That same organization can then start to take over the building of engines for all the ballistic missiles that Pakistan needs. That way you can drive economies of scale of people and knowledge to build new products without needing to spin up another organization every time you need a new product

Pakistan needs to develop specialized organizations around the development of radar technology and deployable radars, as well as jet engines.

Most of all these small new companies that are spinning up feel more like job creation schemes for generals to go and retire at, then an actual effective "industrial strategy" to build an economically viable industry to me.

Question, how many different organizations does Pakistan have right now, all trying to build radars ?
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They(babus) don't have a intent to build/support a true private manufacturer companies, the only thing they are interested in is their fundings lol.
 
Michael said:
Since I am Chinese, it is not convenient for me to conduct an in-depth analysis of KAAN. ------ This would attract strong criticism from some people.

Chief designer of China's top fighter jets: "We have entered a realm of freedom in modern fighter jet design." ------ You can carefully consider the technical implications of this statement.

For China, completing the airframe design of a single-engine 5th-generation fighter jet is a very easy task. There's nothing difficult about it.

Any fighter jet subsystem, besides being used in that particular aircraft, is also used in other aircraft. Furthermore, the more countries/systems supplying subsystems for a fighter jet, the greater the impact of international diplomacy and the more complex the integration process becomes. Moreover, different systems are usually in a competitive relationship, and they won't provide core data to collaborating units. This leads to many technical problems.

Therefore, in-depth customized development based on existing mature platforms is the best option.

The WS-10B has already been exported to Pakistan. This indicates that it has passed the review of relevant agencies. Even if all of its manufacturing technology were leaked, it would not have any impact on China's national security.

Given Pakistan's current industrial capabilities, even if AECC were to transfer the technology of the WS-10 series engines to Pakistan, Pakistan would be unable to independently manufacture them.

Even relatively simple assembly work would not be of much practical significance.
The WS-10 series engines are widely used in China. Its assembly line utilizes pulsed production line technology, resulting in high output and low cost. Pakistan is unable to afford the initial investment in a pulsed production line, nor can it absorb the enormous production capacity of such a line.
Traditional manual assembly lines have low output, high costs, and require highly skilled workers, resulting in a much lower product qualification rate compared to pulsed production lines.

So, what is the significance of Pakistan acquiring the technology for the WS-10 series engines?
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Fair point on the engine. Pakistan will probably seek, not the local licensed production, but just to purchase the engine for its PFX. Considering the J-10CE was exported, i would assume it shouldn’t be an issue.
 
Michael said:
This is my response to the @FuturePAF's viewpoint.

In my personal opinion, developing aero engines at this stage is of no practical significance for Pakistan. Pakistan's top priority should be ensuring basic living standards for its citizens.
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I agree that priority should be on the living standard of the population, and purchase where it seems best to do so.
 
when is PFX prototype coming out PFX01, PFX2 or anything under testing ?
 
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