JF-17 PFX program

[m52k85]

if ANY of the IAF aircraft on 26th had fired on a PAF interceptor(which to the IaFs credit in deception meant that by the PAF was in range the M2ks were behind the technical violation line on the Indian side) they would be fired on at range visual ID or NOT.

sorry, can you clarify what you mean here.. A recently retired Air Commodore has provided a detailed account this year of the strikes on 26th. The IAF package approached from the north, split into three elements, the central element dropped their payloads and violated the LOC properly, they were not behind the technical violation line. I do not know what the RoE would be on the 26th but at that point no PAF fighters were present to be able to call fox 3 on those MK2s, so no, they were not in range of the PAF.

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

sorry, can you clarify what you mean here.. A recently retired Air Commodore has provided a detailed account this year of the strikes on 26th. The IAF package approached from the north, split into three elements, the central element dropped their payloads and violated the LOC properly, they were not behind the technical violation line. I do not know what the RoE would be on the 26th but at that point no PAF fighters were present to be able to call fox 3 on those MK2s, so no, they were not in range of the PAF.

And how do you know there were no fox 3 to intercept M2K, are you there to witness this yourself lol

 

[Oscar]

sorry, can you clarify what you mean here.. A recently retired Air Commodore has provided a detailed account this year of the strikes on 26th. The IAF package approached from the north, split into three elements, the central element dropped their payloads and violated the LOC properly, they were not behind the technical violation line. I do not know what the RoE would be on the 26th but at that point no PAF fighters were present to be able to call fox 3 on those MK2s, so no, they were not in range of the PAF.

I am referring to the RoE - which is if they were in range and the parameters of the RoE were met - they would have fired and the presence of IRST was not relevant in such a scenario.

So to the account you are presenting even if the PAF aircraft were in range - post the IAF violation and egress behind the LoC - unless the PAF fighters were either fired upon or had pre clearance to engage there would be no shots(BVr/WVR irrelevant)

I was referring loosely to accounts provided by KT and official PAF programs and interviews but the crux is that IRST and IFF wasn’t an issue on the 26th.

 

[Oscar]

And how do you know there were no fox 3 to intercept M2K, are you there to witness this yourself lol

He is referring to not being in range or anywhere close which is a likely scenario. But that whole aspect is independent to whatever RoEs exist in these scenarios and more so identifying targets for which the Pakistani Air Defence Environment is fairly well equipped

 

[m52k85]

And how do you know there were no fox 3 to intercept M2K, are you there to witness this yourself lol

I do not have the credentials but he does:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/zahid-ul-hassan-72578557?originalSubdomain=pk

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Please watch the interview first, I will be happy to entertain any questions if any after.

 

[m52k85]

Coming back to the topic at hand, it seems the PFX announcement is based on the realisation:
a. of what our actual worth in contributing to the Turkish project is - nada.
b. that the Turkish and Chinese options will not form the workhorse of PAF into the 2040s.
c. Pakistan economic position does not justify a PAF based solely on imports (otherwise J-10s could be possibly be a viable workhorse of the future).

I'm seeing it as a sort of restart of Azm, call it Azm 2.0 with a refined ASR based on realising the mammoth task at hand during Azm 1.0.

Key take aways for Azm 2.0:
1. start with something you have - Jf-17
2. gen 4.5 is a more realisable goal than gen 5 i.e. degrade all aspect stealth to frontal aspect no load (think KFX). Leverage the good experience from block building,
3. leave room in the design for as yet unknown sensor package and ideally tweak the airframe configuration from the current high-subsonic to transonic and low-supersonic performance and keep fingers crossed for complementary engine option to become available in future. Both these points would have become very clear to PAF when I'm sure during the design of Block-3 they would have found how hard it is too squeeze an elephant into a fridge.

 

[Zarvan]

Coming back to the topic at hand, it seems the PFX announcement is based on the realisation:
a. of what our actual worth in contributing to the Turkish project is - nada.
b. that the Turkish and Chinese options will not form the workhorse of PAF into the 2040s.
c. Pakistan economic position does not justify a PAF based solely on imports (otherwise J-10s could be possibly be a viable workhorse of the future).

I'm seeing it as a sort of restart of Azm, call it Azm 2.0 with a refined ASR based on realising the mammoth task at hand during Azm 1.0.

Key take aways for Azm 2.0:
1. start with something you have - Jf-17
2. gen 4.5 is a more realisable goal than gen 5 i.e. degrade all aspect stealth to frontal aspect no load (think KFX). Leverage the good experience from block building,
3. leave room in the design for as yet unknown sensor package and ideally tweak the airframe configuration from the current high-subsonic to transonic and low-supersonic performance and keep fingers crossed for complementary engine option to become available in future. Both these points would have become very clear to PAF when I'm sure during the design of Block-3 they would have found how hard it is too squeeze an elephant into a fridge.

KAAN is a separate thing, and we 200 Pakistanis are working on KAAN. Soon the number will be increased to 400. Pakistan is fully part of KAAN and this participation will be increased by every passing year. J-31 is also coming. Secondly when Pakistan inducts, we don't induct 30 or 40 planes. That is not feasible for us. So, expect both J-31 and KAAN to be 100 each at least if not more. As for JF-17 PFX if it's a stealth type thing, it would be a single engine plane and would work as future workhorse.

 

[Oscar]

Coming back to the topic at hand, it seems the PFX announcement is based on the realisation:
a. of what our actual worth in contributing to the Turkish project is - nada.
b. that the Turkish and Chinese options will not form the workhorse of PAF into the 2040s.
c. Pakistan economic position does not justify a PAF based solely on imports (otherwise J-10s could be possibly be a viable workhorse of the future).

I'm seeing it as a sort of restart of Azm, call it Azm 2.0 with a refined ASR based on realising the mammoth task at hand during Azm 1.0.

Key take aways for Azm 2.0:
1. start with something you have - Jf-17
2. gen 4.5 is a more realisable goal than gen 5 i.e. degrade all aspect stealth to frontal aspect no load (think KFX). Leverage the good experience from block building,
3. leave room in the design for as yet unknown sensor package and ideally tweak the airframe configuration from the current high-subsonic to transonic and low-supersonic performance and keep fingers crossed for complementary engine option to become available in future. Both these points would have become very clear to PAF when I'm sure during the design of Block-3 they would have found how hard it is too squeeze an elephant into a fridge.

Possibly but even in this case you first need to manufacture the complete JF-17 inhouse to completely wean off the foriegn supply chain.

For that you need to be able to create the jigs, have the right equipment to be able to create those last few parts.

That doesn’t exist today.

 

[Jango]

As for JF-17 PFX if it's a stealth type thing, it would be a single engine plane and would work as future workhorse.

I really doubt you can make a 90's design (which was started as a non-stealth concept) to something 'stealthy'.

The airframe, avionics, control surfaces, canopy design, all would need to change.

This seems something like the the F-15 silent eagle. Let's see how this project evolves.

 

[Quwa]

Coming back to the topic at hand, it seems the PFX announcement is based on the realisation:
a. of what our actual worth in contributing to the Turkish project is - nada.
b. that the Turkish and Chinese options will not form the workhorse of PAF into the 2040s.
c. Pakistan economic position does not justify a PAF based solely on imports (otherwise J-10s could be possibly be a viable workhorse of the future).

I'm seeing it as a sort of restart of Azm, call it Azm 2.0 with a refined ASR based on realising the mammoth task at hand during Azm 1.0.

Key take aways for Azm 2.0:
1. start with something you have - Jf-17
2. gen 4.5 is a more realisable goal than gen 5 i.e. degrade all aspect stealth to frontal aspect no load (think KFX). Leverage the good experience from block building,
3. leave room in the design for as yet unknown sensor package and ideally tweak the airframe configuration from the current high-subsonic to transonic and low-supersonic performance and keep fingers crossed for complementary engine option to become available in future. Both these points would have become very clear to PAF when I'm sure during the design of Block-3 they would have found how hard it is too squeeze an elephant into a fridge.

Given that NGFA options will be available (J-31/XX and KAAN), I don't think the JF-17 PFX would even be that ambitious. If anything, the farthest they could go is to do what India is doing for the Tejas Mk2 program. But even that could be asking too much. I suspect it's more of a play to bring the entire production line to PAC and configure the aircraft more flexibly via Turkish and European subsystems and munitions.

Possibly but even in this case you first need to manufacture the complete JF-17 inhouse to completely wean off the foriegn supply chain.

For that you need to be able to create the jigs, have the right equipment to be able to create those last few parts.

That doesn’t exist today.

I think the main goal could be to buy AVIC's shares in the program.

 

[m52k85]

Pakistan is fully part of KAAN and this participation will be increased by every passing year.

Sure, so is Indonesia of the KFX and Pakistan of Jf-17, some European countries of F-16 and the list goes on.

 

[m52k85]

Given that NGFA options will be available (J-31/XX and KAAN), I don't think the JF-17 PFX would even be that ambitious. If anything, the farthest they could go is to do what India is doing for the Tejas Mk2 program. But even that could be asking too much. I suspect it's more of a play to bring the entire production line to PAC and configure the aircraft more flexibly via Turkish and European subsystems and munitions.


I think the main goal could be to buy AVIC's shares in the program.

Possibly but even in this case you first need to manufacture the complete JF-17 inhouse to completely wean off the foriegn supply chain.

For that you need to be able to create the jigs, have the right equipment to be able to create those last few parts.

That doesn’t exist today.

We know the 58 - 42 split is based on Airframe, importing the jigs for the back fuselage ought not to be so hard, one wonders what the wisdom for keeping that work share with China was in the first place. Perhaps because the engines were being imported by China and the rear fuselage is where the engines need to sit. Now that there is news of the engines being Chinese, perhaps that aspect of risk/ politics management is no longer applicable. With regards to material of manufacture, Pakistan has the set-up to basically import the requisite aerospace grade aluminium alloy in block/ bar form and turn it into airframe structures, so assuming the rear fuselage is also aluminium alloy then that should be easy.

What is interesting for me would be other components, fuel systems including tanks, actuators, pylons, sensors, transmitters, receivers (not just radar, but rwr, iff, satcom etc), landing gear, even the infamous hinges etc. I don't think we have ever had a workshare percent disclosure on these. I'm not saying these are required to be able to say Pakistan has the full capability to *autonomously* manufacture the Jf-17, hell even the US imports stuff from dozens of countries to put together an F-35, but the project managers will know, that some from this list of components will need to be brought in-house for complete autonomy.

Autonomy being defined as 'PAF will continue to be able to manufacture the Jf-17 if Chengdu shuts down the assembly line, and diverts the associated work force and fixed cost set-up' as opposed to 'PAF will continue to be able to manufacture the Jf-17 if Pakistan were under complete and total embargo by every other country in the world'. Of course the reasonable assumption here is Chengdu will be happy to hand over its supplier/ sub-contractor list to PAF if that has not happened already.

 

[Oscar]

We know the 58 - 42 split is based on Airframe, importing the jigs for the back fuselage ought not to be so hard, one wonders what the wisdom for keeping that work share with China was in the first place. Perhaps because the engines were being imported by China and the rear fuselage is where the engines need to sit. Now that there is news of the engines being Chinese, perhaps that aspect of risk/ politics management is no longer applicable. With regards to material of manufacture, Pakistan has the set-up to basically import the requisite aerospace grade aluminium alloy in block/ bar form and turn it into airframe structures, so assuming the rear fuselage is also aluminium alloy then that should be easy.

What is interesting for me would be other components, fuel systems including tanks, actuators, pylons, sensors, transmitters, receivers (not just radar, but rwr, iff, satcom etc), landing gear, even the infamous hinges etc. I don't think we have ever had a workshare percent disclosure on these. I'm not saying these are required to be able to say Pakistan has the full capability to *autonomously* manufacture the Jf-17, hell even the US imports stuff from dozens of countries to put together an F-35, but the project managers will know, that some from this list of components will need to be brought in-house for complete autonomy.

Autonomy being defined as 'PAF will continue to be able to manufacture the Jf-17 if Chengdu shuts down the assembly line, and diverts the associated work force and fixed cost set-up' as opposed to 'PAF will continue to be able to manufacture the Jf-17 if Pakistan were under complete and total embargo by every other country in the world'. Of course the reasonable assumption here is Chengdu will be happy to hand over its supplier/ sub-contractor list to PAF if that has not happened already.

Chengdu has a business interest to not hand everything over - it doesn’t want to hand over control to a customer just yet. They blocked integration requests for non-Chinese equipment as well at times by citing odd reasons.

 

[Awwad]

So, expect both J-31 and KAAN to be 100 each at least if not more

"if not more"! Sadqay jaon !

and expect 100 F22 Raptors & 100 J-20s as well
and PAF will have an airbase in the Mars..... Space base actually
and Zarvan will be next US president

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

I do not have the credentials but he does:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/zahid-ul-hassan-72578557?originalSubdomain=pk

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Please watch the interview first, I will be happy to entertain any questions if any after.

And international practice of interception of enemy jets doesn't need to fire AAM toward enemy jets