JF-17 PFX program
- Thread starter Zarvan
- Start date
FuturePAF
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
PAF current strategy of winning over customers piecemeal is probably the safest approach, considering the limited funds.
Hopefully this approach will build a large enough loyal customer base that can be marketed. Perhaps with these customers, a joint funding project with pledged orders (and funds) could help pave the way for the PFX, for domestic use and export, manned and unmanned, along with a PAF led multi-domain warfare training and exercises commitment.
Iraq looks to be a potentially large partner for Pakistan. They have stabilized and look to be trying to get out of Iran’s shadow. Perhaps greater collaboration with Pakistan in an oil for Jets deal, like the GCC countries do, could be a way to benefit both nations, and this continued development of the PFX and its supporting projects. Perhaps this is similar to how the Indonesians joined the KFX project? @Indos
But this is getting off base of the actual design and more towards the geopolitics, so I’ll stop there.
Faceless
Registered Member
I'd hedge my bets on it being an upgrade program to upgrade the older airframes to a block 3+ standard.
Maybe new Chinese engines, a GaN AESA radar, maybe even loyal Wingmans for the JF 17B, but that's about it.
Another possibility might be a more localised block 3+ with almost the entire assembly line shifted to Pakistan due to CAC focusing more on domestic orders as @Michael was suggesting few days earlier
Michael
VIP Member
I've already stated that this is a personal opinion.
Core military equipment is a major event and a core secret in any country, and it is difficult for us to get more evidence. However, as military fans, we can logically reason and analyze a lot of issues, and we can take this personal opinion as an entertainment topic. I will try to expand and analyze this personal view of mine, but please don't read too much into it, it's just a personal analytical view, nothing more.
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Known conditions:
1.(Certainty) The JF-17 is a Sino-Pakistani cooperative program, and the naming convention for its various upgraded versions follows the B1/B2/B3 pattern. Its latest version, the JF-17B3, first flew in December 2019, mass production began in December 2020, and in 2023 the PAF officially began equipping it. According to the China-Pakistan agreement, China allows Pakistan to equip the JF-17 series with third-party subsystems as well as to produce the relevant subsystems on its own.
2、(Certainty)PAF formally equips the J-10CE in 2022, with the number of units acquired currently standing at 20, and the vast majority of the deal's payment is in the form of a Chinese loan.
3.(Uncertainty) PAF has publicly announced that it will procure the J-31 (now named J-35), but so far there is no official word. Meanwhile, sources indicate that Pakistan is in talks with Turkey to join the KAAN program.
Analysis of international relations in Pakistan's military industry:
1. China. Currently Pakistan's largest arms supplier. There are a large number of arms deals and technical cooperation between the two sides in various military fields.
2, United States. Once Pakistan's largest arms supplier. He used to provide Pakistan with military assistance funds and weapons, as well as defense cooperation between the two sides, but there is not much cooperation at the technical level.
3. Russia. Not much military cooperation between the two sides, now mainly JF-17 engine cooperation.
4, Turkey. Due to the very similar culture of the two sides, the relationship is very close. There is a great deal of military technical cooperation between the two sides.
5, Saudi Arabia. There is not much military technical cooperation between the two sides. However, a large number of sources indicate that Saudi Arabia is the gold master behind Pakistan. Many of Pakistan's arms purchases have Saudi financial support behind them.
Pakistan unilaterally launched the “JF-17 PFX program”. the other side of the JF-17, China, did not respond to the news.
Inference:
The program continues to use the prefix “JF-17”, indicating that Pakistan still wants the program to fall within the scope of China-Pakistan cooperation. However, instead of the customary “B4” subtype, the program has adopted the new “PFX” subtype. The current China-Pakistan agreement meets all of Pakistan's requirements for the JF-17. There is absolutely no need for Pakistan to introduce a new subtype.
If it's not a smokescreen created by PAF, then it's only possible that the JF-17 PFX program will no longer be just a China+Pakistan partnership, and there's a high probability that a third player will join the program. Based on this reasoning, we can try to analyze this “third player”. Based on multilateral international relations and realpolitik, it could only be Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis will provide the initial funding, and Pakistan will conduct the feasibility study and analysis of “upgrading the JF-17 to a near 5th generation fighter jet”. If the feasibility study is valid, Saudi Arabia will join the JF-17 PFX program. In the future, Saudi Arabia will finance, China will provide technology and Pakistan will be responsible for manufacturing. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will be its biggest purchaser. This will be a perfect program.
If this inference is valid, then our specific analysis of the JF-17 PFX program should be based on the situation of the three countries “Pakistan+China+Saudi Arabia”.
The political implications of this inference:
If this program is established, Pakistan will be completely separated from Turkey's KAAN program.
If the plan does not hold, there is a high probability that Pakistan will join Turkey's KAAN program.
Whether the plan stands or not, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, their influence over Pakistan will change.
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Michael
VIP Member
CAC has not had a JF-17 production line since the beginning of the JF-17 program until now. Its production line has been in Pakistan.
Some of the components of the JF-17 were initially delivered to PAC after being produced by factories under CAC. in the mid to late stages, their production was gradually transferred to PAC after its manufacturing capacity was upgraded.
CAC is the design organization for the JF-17 and the R&D department is fully capable of manufacturing the complete JF-17 on its own. however, you need to differentiate between R&D manufacturing and volume manufacturing. They have completely different production methods/production costs/production lead times.
The subsystems of the JF-17 are manufactured by their respective providers. They are not part of CAC.If Pakistan wants to manufacture these subsystems indigenously, it needs to negotiate directly with these subsystem providers. They have nothing to do with JF-17.
Bentley777
Registered Member
Why our chief dont do press conference for defense related matters. There question can be asked directly about pfx.
Toxic
Trusted Member
I think there needs to be a bigger to be bigger sales push on the international market, if we are able to export 100 or so planes by 2030 that should provide $5-6 billion, enough funding for PFX + plus A UCAV/Loyal wingman program.
this market is not a big one, plus, any major clients that would have been interested are automatically out due to china. i.e malaysia, or other asean states/
Indos
INT'L MOD
Indonesia joined KFX program after South Korea delegation comes to Jakarta and meet the Indonesian President in 2009. 2010 the contract between 2 countries were signed. Beginning 2011 the development started with feasibility study and also makes 2 design of C103 and C203. C103 is the design we see Today ( C109 is the refinement of C103, a bit larger but relatively similar design with C103).
The reason SK invited Indonesia is because they are not confident with their own capabilities plus the need to larger the captive market. The gov cannot started the development before they have partner. SK previously had bought several CN 235 from Indonesian Aerospace in middle of 2000's, 8 planes.
There is period when C103 has been created by ADD Korea and Indonesian Aerospace but Korean gov and parliament think it will not be able to be developed, then KAI offer KFX - E with single engine with design more similar like Stealthy F16
Tigh debate for about a year or two in Korea and the development is stopped for several years due to debate in SK
C103 then choosen and refined into C109. Lockheed Martin join in EMD phase (Engineering and Manufacturing Development) 2016 - 2026 as technical assistant for Korean Aerospace.
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Oscar
Moderator
It the latter with some of the former - the upgrade program is unrelated to PFx.
MastanKhan
VIP Member
Toxic
Trusted Member
What secrets lmao? Even weapon programs of the US aren't that secretive, Transparency Is always good, it helps build trust with the public.
SiliconBit (silicon0000)
Trusted Member
What you said seems correct and one of the posibilities but last paragraph doesn't seems right, the relationship of PFX and KAAN. PFX is not 5th Gen. J35 and KAAN relationship could be logical but Why Pakistan seperate itself from KAAN after having PFX?
Quwa
Research Partner
tbh the real markets here are for guided munitions (especially cruise missiles) and jet-powered UCAVs.
These are 2 areas where a typical major military will need to buy in large numbers, and then also navigate strings and high costs from the handful of suppliers who may offer them.
That's why these 2 areas are perfect for Pakistan. It can create decent solutions at a good price point and with minimal strings, especially if said systems draw on domestic inputs.
With enough demand, our SOEs won't be able to keep up and that will incentivize private investors to set up shop.
hussain0216
Elite Member
Absolutely,
Can Pakistan get work share for J35, J10, Kaan
Maybe Kaan if we partake in the project, and maybe we can use some components in PFX but whilst their was talking of joining the project, to what extent we do not know but most likely it will be a minimal junior partner at best, that's even if we go that way
As China continues to develop, it may not be too bothered about J10C and may throw us some work share, but that's unlikely and very unlikely with J35
These will be direct purchases from China
And we are yet to see what involvement, if any we will have with the Kaan project, although positive statements were made
SO can we start a new fresh jet project, the answer is NO, the cost alone will be too prohibiting, but what we can do is expand on the JF17 project, take as much work share as possible except for maybe the engine
And build upon the basic project that Pakistan can expand and have complete control over
