Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
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no, Erdogan never said anything bad about Israel and Iraqi PMU definitely made an official binding promise to wipe out Israel so it's ok
Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present
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Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #2,402
reports in Israeli channels that Israel bombed these UAV production sites in Beirut in response to Hezbollah successfully carrying out UAV surveillance operations against Israeli gas sites and Haifa in recent days
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Assuming the Israelis are not lying about such facilities in Beirut.
Why are they putting UAE production sites in Beirut, thats not a smart move. These production should be buried deep in the Anti Lebanon mountain deeper inland or in the Beqaa valley. Its irresponsible and not tactically the best idea.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Falcon29
Elite Member
Let me tell you my honest observation. Hezbollah's base is part secular part Islamic movement. You have the religious base in southern Lebanon that don't make a lot of money, they live on the front lines and they do most of the fighting. Think Bint Jbeil community. Those people refused to leave their village despite heavy Israeli bombardment. Similar to the dedicated Hamas bunch in northern Gaza.
In a situation like this you can't evacuate otherwise Israel will succeed in quickly annexing entire parts of a territory.
So, then you have the other part of the Hezbollah base, the ones that make money, want to restrict resistance to Twitter only, and made money off of conflict in Syria, wanting to brand Hezbollah as a movement for all Shias instead of a movement working strictly in Lebanon. These are the ones I call corrupt stakeholders. We have them in Gaza too but Yahya Sinwar stripped power from them entirely and they hated him. The military wing of Hamas overrode much of political wing decision making. The military wing has huge popularity in Gaza because they're known to very strong on corruption and very fair with the people of Gaza. And true to their cause. So the corrupt stakeholders got no traction in Gaza, and Hamas real power holders use them for public relations and foreign relations.
With Hezbollah, these corrupt stakeholders somehow got large influence. They won't provide necessary funding and military resources for the dedicated military guys. They won't approve battle plans that their military guys come up. They're trying to keep everything low level to preserve their businesses/investments/money rings and I won't be surprised they're moles working with the Mossad and not giving military guys operational freedom or room to work with. Some of the secular base don't view Jihad as a lifestyle and they don't want to be involved in war.
It's neutered the movement essentially. That doesn't mean they need to be like Hamas. Everyone has their own philosophy and approach. Syrian rebels resemble Hamas ideologically in some ways but in others they don't. And they have different approaches to matters. They aren't going to be a carbon copy of Hamas. They'll tackle Israeli threat in their own Syrian way. Syrians abroad are also quite influential and educated and will help advise Syrian government. Hezbollah likewise is Lebanese and has different philosophy/approach.
But I know for a fact these are the issues that held Hezbollah back. And elements in Hezbollah may even blame Iran for some of that. But also elements in Iran will say we provided them with everything they need but they didn't take advantage of it along the way.
Iran on other hand is probably well prepared for a war with Israel. And would be effective.
Then you also take into account Iran is wondering how long this Gaza situation will drag through. And how should they advise Hezbollah to manavuer. They could be advising them to conserve resources because they fear the worse is yet to come (for their strategic interests/homeland, the worst already came for Gaza ).
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
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Lebanese government adopts same rhetoric as Jolani, saying they do not want a war with Israel
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
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Lebanese youth intercept and block UNIFIL patrol car and place Hezbollah flags on the car
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Don't we have the same comments from Zarif and other Iranian officials? "We don't want conflict", "We are not seeking conflict".
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Everyone knows about the Captagon Drug Dealer faction. But I'm talking about production facilities for the military, they should not be in Beirut, only the Political offices should be in Dahiya with the civilian wing, all the Military factions should be somewhere like Baalbek, deep in the interior Beqaa. With the Military facilities buried deep in the Anti Lebanon Mountains.
Keeping military in Beirut is a liability and frankly irresponsible.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
- Thread starter
- #2,410
How Israel defeated Hezbollah in only a few weeks:
17-18 September: Pager and walkie talkie operations cause 3500+ casualties (99% injuries of varying magnitude) and plunged Hezbollah into chaos due to confusion and loss of communications network.
20 September: Ibrahim Aqil, head of Redwan Forces, was injured in the attack but released from hospital on 20th September and met with 10-15 Redwan Forces commanders in an underground bunker on the same day to discuss a response. Israel bombed the bunker and killed everyone inside, taking out the entire leadership of the Redwan Forces.
23-30 September: Israel dramatically escalates the war by starting an extremely intense mass carpet bombing campaign across all of Lebanon, with 300+ airstrikes per day, causing mass displacement and killing 800+ and injuring 4000+ Lebanese people (mostly civilians).
27 September: Hassan Nasrallah met with Ali Karaki and other top officials in Hezbollah's underground HQ in Beirut. Israel dropped 200 bombs in the span of seconds, razing several massive residential blocs to the ground, and killing everyone in the HQ (and dozens of civilians), plunging Hezbollah into leadership crisis.
28 September: Nabil Qaouk, head of Hezbollah's preventive security unit, was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
3 October: Hashem Safiedin (the de facto leader of Hezbollah after Nasrallah was killed) and other key leaders meet in an intelligence bunker to attempt to reorganise the group, but Israel drop 73 tons of bombs (equivalent to 150 Iskander ballistic missiles) on the bunker, killing them all, hugely escalating Hezbollah's leadership crisis.
7 October: Suhail Husseini, head of Hezbollah's logistics, was killed in an Israeli airstrike, the 5th Jihad Council member killed in only a few weeks.
October-November: Local Hezbollah units in the south continued to fight and resist the Israeli invasion, with decent success but at huge cost, and rocket units in the north also continued to operate independently to central command, but with less organisation and intensity than planned.
20-21 October: Israel further escalates its war against Hezbollah and the Lebanese people by targeting the Al-Qard banks associated with Hezbollah, practically the only remaining financial safe haven in Lebanon after its banks went bankrupt years before, bombing dozens of the banks across Lebanon and attempting to destroy their cash reserves held on behalf of ordinary Lebanese people.
26 November: Lebanese government (on behalf of Hezbollah) agrees to ceasefire with Israel.
17-18 September: Pager and walkie talkie operations cause 3500+ casualties (99% injuries of varying magnitude) and plunged Hezbollah into chaos due to confusion and loss of communications network.
20 September: Ibrahim Aqil, head of Redwan Forces, was injured in the attack but released from hospital on 20th September and met with 10-15 Redwan Forces commanders in an underground bunker on the same day to discuss a response. Israel bombed the bunker and killed everyone inside, taking out the entire leadership of the Redwan Forces.
23-30 September: Israel dramatically escalates the war by starting an extremely intense mass carpet bombing campaign across all of Lebanon, with 300+ airstrikes per day, causing mass displacement and killing 800+ and injuring 4000+ Lebanese people (mostly civilians).
27 September: Hassan Nasrallah met with Ali Karaki and other top officials in Hezbollah's underground HQ in Beirut. Israel dropped 200 bombs in the span of seconds, razing several massive residential blocs to the ground, and killing everyone in the HQ (and dozens of civilians), plunging Hezbollah into leadership crisis.
28 September: Nabil Qaouk, head of Hezbollah's preventive security unit, was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
3 October: Hashem Safiedin (the de facto leader of Hezbollah after Nasrallah was killed) and other key leaders meet in an intelligence bunker to attempt to reorganise the group, but Israel drop 73 tons of bombs (equivalent to 150 Iskander ballistic missiles) on the bunker, killing them all, hugely escalating Hezbollah's leadership crisis.
7 October: Suhail Husseini, head of Hezbollah's logistics, was killed in an Israeli airstrike, the 5th Jihad Council member killed in only a few weeks.
October-November: Local Hezbollah units in the south continued to fight and resist the Israeli invasion, with decent success but at huge cost, and rocket units in the north also continued to operate independently to central command, but with less organisation and intensity than planned.
20-21 October: Israel further escalates its war against Hezbollah and the Lebanese people by targeting the Al-Qard banks associated with Hezbollah, practically the only remaining financial safe haven in Lebanon after its banks went bankrupt years before, bombing dozens of the banks across Lebanon and attempting to destroy their cash reserves held on behalf of ordinary Lebanese people.
26 November: Lebanese government (on behalf of Hezbollah) agrees to ceasefire with Israel.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Hezbollah needs to approach Walid Jumblatt and make peace. He is the kingmaker in Lebanon and has sway in the region, and the one thing that man and his Father have always been is Pan Arabist and Anti Zionist.
If there is anyone that can broker peace with any faction in Lebanon and Syria, its him. They need Walid Jumblatt on their side or atleast not on the other side in Lebanon.
If there is anyone that can broker peace with any faction in Lebanon and Syria, its him. They need Walid Jumblatt on their side or atleast not on the other side in Lebanon.
Watandar
Trusted Member
It isnt weird. The US/Israel installed a new Lebanese govt and are funding it with the aim of taking over everything in Lebanon, including removal of UN forces and dismantling of Hezbollah. I would also expect the UN refugee agency to be forced to close shop in Lebanon.
Watandar
Trusted Member
I am still waiting for some good journalism or report that tells us how exactly Israel managed to kill so many Hezbollah leaders and target its facilities and the organization. Some clues i have been able to gather from the last one year :
1. Hezbollah had stagnated as a group from its peak in 2006 and its strategy/tactics were outdated for 2024.
2.Many Lebanese cooperated with Israel to provide intelligence on Hezbollah. Not just the usual Maronite but the bad news is that Lebanese Sunni/Shia did as well. They had been sold a dream of a "new Lebanon" by GCC/US.
3. Hezbollah itself was penetrated very deeply and its communications and secrets heavily compromised.
4. Syrian regime of Bashar Al Assad stabbed Iran/Hezbollah in the back by providing its most critical intelligence files to GCC, which provided it to Israel. This was the price Bashar regime paid for being able to flee the country safely with their families and money.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Israeli forces fired bullets towards the outskirts of the town of Al-Wazzani.
Event sources: An Israeli raid on the outskirts of Shebaa Farms in southern Lebanon kills one person and wounds two others
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