Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present
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Falcon29
Elite Member
Israeli intelligence estimated Hezbollah has only 10,000 rockets remaining. The previous estimates of 150,000 rockets is either misinformation or Hezbollah did a very poor job of protecting their weapons.
Hezbollah has pretty much surrendered. I don't expect there to be a confrontation. Lebanese army is taking over all of southern Lebanon and detonating Hezbollah weapons caches.
However, this isn't good for Lebanon, as US seeks a defenseless Lebanon that can't even mount a defense against an Israeli invasion. Lebanon used to participate in Arab defensive wars against Israel (1948). They want Lebanon to be defenseless. And also Syria and Gaza.
They're going after Egypt next which is going to be in an economic fashion. They hope to make Egypt so poor and live off foreign aid, so it can demote it's military and retire many advanced weapons systems.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
I don't buy that nonsense, that only 10,000 rockets left. They have been building and supplying for 20 years. No way they ran out. Its probably in Beqaa and underground in mountain complexes.
The real question is if these so called "Resistance alliance" will help if/when the Israelis do attack. The Iraqis are the most useless of the bunch, all it took are a few airstrikes and they gave up.
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Falcon29
Elite Member
Iraqi factions could and you would expect be more active but 'resistance' is ran as a business operation and not something their people are passionate about like Yemen.
I don't doubt Hezbollah is running out of rockets. Because I don't believe Israeli claims in the first place. There could be rockets stored in Syria that are now confiscated or lost.
Israel has been striking Lebanon for two years. Lebanese Shia are a segment of the population and they're under threat not just by Israeli's but also other elements. They probably feel mentally defeated because they're in a damned if you do -- damned if you don't situation.
This overall situation is frustrating as we can all see Israel is engaging in aggression against all of us in the region but nobody is putting them in their place. This ultimately requires collective action by our respective nations and professional militaries.
hyperman
INT'L MOD
Lets see if Iran does anything, or rallies the Iraqis to go and help or launch from Iraq or whatever.
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
Let us be honest. Lebanon is not a real country to begin with. It is a recent artificial French creation intended to create a homeland for the Christian Maronites. It was taken by force from Syria.
Yes, some Lebanese reading this will claim that Lebanon was created by Druze Arab tribes
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
and there is some truth to that but nevertheless.
Hence all the civil wars and continued disunity to this very day. Christian Lebanese have a totally different vision to the rest. They want to have cordial ties with Israel, they were allied with Israel for a reason during the Israeli occupation and invasion of Lebanon and civil wars and many of them dislike Palestinians heavily.
Then you have the Lebanese Sunni Arabs (1/3 of the population) who have their own viewpoints, allies and who would prefer (by large) to be a part of Syria again. This community was heavily involved with the Syrian opposition for a reason.
Then you have the Shia Lebanese in the South who are dominated by Hezbollah and firmly aligned with the Iranian regime project and worldview after 46 years of brainwashing.
Then there is the Druze community with their own agenda.
All this leaves Lebanon with no functioning state institutions, no real army or any long-term visions or any real unity.
To expect anything from Lebanon or militias like Hezbollah is frankly a waste of time.
Lebanon's only chance of prospering is for the Lebanese to genuinely unite as a people and country (I don't ever see that happening) and to build up a real military. Something that Israel is unlikely to allow anyway.
To begin with Lebanon is a tiny country both in size, population and economics.
There are at least 5 times as many Lebanese (people of Lebanese heritage) outside of Lebanon than inside Lebanon.
The economy is a complete mess due to corruption, Hezbollah involvement. Hezbollah-controlled part of Lebanon already acts like a separate country and is one of the remaining captagon/drug capitals of the region.
It is a complete joke.
And no, Iran is not going to come to the rescue of Hezbollah (despite this being an Iranian project and creation - likes of Nasrallah openly admitted that he is blindly following the Khamenei project in the region - we have several such videos publicly available so not something I make up) like we saw recently and even more so after the removal of the Al-Assad regime in Syria.
Not to mention that Iran has enough of internal problems to be aiding Hezbollah, not that their aid will change anything on the ground.
So they are pretty much screwed.
Yes, some Lebanese reading this will claim that Lebanon was created by Druze Arab tribes
Tanukh - Wikipedia
Shihab dynasty - Wikipedia
Emirate of Mount Lebanon - Wikipedia
and there is some truth to that but nevertheless.
Hence all the civil wars and continued disunity to this very day. Christian Lebanese have a totally different vision to the rest. They want to have cordial ties with Israel, they were allied with Israel for a reason during the Israeli occupation and invasion of Lebanon and civil wars and many of them dislike Palestinians heavily.
Then you have the Lebanese Sunni Arabs (1/3 of the population) who have their own viewpoints, allies and who would prefer (by large) to be a part of Syria again. This community was heavily involved with the Syrian opposition for a reason.
Then you have the Shia Lebanese in the South who are dominated by Hezbollah and firmly aligned with the Iranian regime project and worldview after 46 years of brainwashing.
Then there is the Druze community with their own agenda.
All this leaves Lebanon with no functioning state institutions, no real army or any long-term visions or any real unity.
To expect anything from Lebanon or militias like Hezbollah is frankly a waste of time.
Lebanon's only chance of prospering is for the Lebanese to genuinely unite as a people and country (I don't ever see that happening) and to build up a real military. Something that Israel is unlikely to allow anyway.
To begin with Lebanon is a tiny country both in size, population and economics.
There are at least 5 times as many Lebanese (people of Lebanese heritage) outside of Lebanon than inside Lebanon.
The economy is a complete mess due to corruption, Hezbollah involvement. Hezbollah-controlled part of Lebanon already acts like a separate country and is one of the remaining captagon/drug capitals of the region.
It is a complete joke.
And no, Iran is not going to come to the rescue of Hezbollah (despite this being an Iranian project and creation - likes of Nasrallah openly admitted that he is blindly following the Khamenei project in the region - we have several such videos publicly available so not something I make up) like we saw recently and even more so after the removal of the Al-Assad regime in Syria.
Not to mention that Iran has enough of internal problems to be aiding Hezbollah, not that their aid will change anything on the ground.
So they are pretty much screwed.
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_Arabia_
Trusted Member
Hezbollah are also retards. Instead of unifying with the Lebanese army and other armed militias and factions within Lebanon they prefer to rule tiny South Lebanon as their own fiefdom with Iranian regime support/oversight. So they are part of the problem within Lebanon as well as they have actively (throughout decades) been doing everything in order to weaken the Lebanese state while themselves gaining power at the expense of the Lebanese state. At the same time they are saying that the Lebanese army, if they disband, will not be able to protect Lebanon. I wonder why? Symptom of the clear lack of unity, division and overall joke (state wise) that Lebanon has evolved into and been for the past at least 5 decades.
Same goes with all the other Lebanese factions.
This is why there is no single Lebanese front.
Same story with Iraq. Kurds have totally different viewpoints and agenda than Iraqi Shia Arabs. Less said about the Iraqi Sunni Arabs the better as well.
So it makes no sense to talk about the "Lebanese" or "Iraqi" viewpoint.
We are not talking about KSA, Egypt or Turkey for instance where you have clear ethnic and religious majorities and somewhat unified visions among the governments and people.
I can easily show you 3 prominent Lebanese Twitter users (Lebanese Sunni Arab, Lebanese Maronite Christian and Lebanese Shia Arab) and if you read their posts/views it is like they are from 3 different countries that are heavily at odds with each other.
Sometimes you have to question the very purpose/existence of a few Arab countries out there and what the whole point of this is and their attachment to their recent constructs (nation states).
LOL. The Iraqi militias allied with Iran are busy running their own militias/gangs and the leaders are busy enriching themselves while persecuting/displacing Iraqi Sunni Arabs and accusing them of being ISIS. This is not much spoken about but unlike the official Iraqi military (which Iran has tried to infiltrate without much luck), those pro-Iranian militias (PMF) are doing many of the same crimes that the Shabiha did in Syria under Al-Assad since 2014 and using ISIS as an excuse. 10.000's upon 10.000's of innocent Iraqi Sunni Arabs were executed/displaced by those gangs/terrorists with the sole reason being their identity or lose rumors of ISIS affiliation which was always a small group within Iraq.
All you have to do is follow some Twitter users from Iraq among the Sunni Arabs and social media users from places like Fallujah, Ramadi, Samara, Mosul, Tikrit, Baquba etc. Even from places like Baghdad and Basra.
I will just post those of them based in the West:
They are not interested in any changes of status quo or any serious confrontations with Israel or anybody else for that matter.
It is just cheap rhetoric (this whole "resistance axis") in order to remain in power and be relevant.
Those Shia clerics in Iraq, half of their wealth, comes from gullible/ignorant Iraqi Shia Arabs (poor and often illiterate) who are forced to donate (this is their religious doctrine) money to their religious leaders (Marja). Twelvers by law in their sect have to follow a Marja.
They are required to give 20% of their annual income/wealth to their Imams. Biggest money scam out there not much different from the Evangelical pastors in the US.
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_Arabia_
Trusted Member
And the biggest joke has to be Hezbollah's outreach and pleas to KSA of some kind of support. Are they complete utter retards or what is going on?
We had Hezbollah operatives openly aiding Houthi cultists against KSA, Hezbollah affiliates (Hezbollah Al-Hijaz) doing terrorist attacks within KSA (since the 1980's) and Hezbollah leadership obsessing about KSA more than even their supposed enemy Israel, and now when they are getting their ass kicked in tiny Southern Lebanon and after losing/being kicked out of Syria after untold crimes against the Syrian Arab Muslim people, we are now going to "save" them and "help" them?
If those retards, even despite KSA helping end the Lebanese civil war (Taif agreement), helping rebuilt Lebanon and wasting untold money on this country, hosting I don't know how many Lebanese people since 60 + years (10.000's of Lebanese Shia Arabs too!), KSA never attacking Hezbollah or Lebanon (unlike them and their masters - Iranian Mullah regime) we are now suddenly supposed to ally with them?
Look nothing against the average Hezbollah foot soldier (non-hostile towards Sunni Arabs, KSA and our people - I believe most ordinary Hezbollah members, those not brainwashed by Iranian regime rhetoric and religious beliefs - Wilayat al-Faqih at least can be future partners like any Arab people) but the leadership (old one) are total sellouts and can never be trusted. Unless they change their policies completely or apologize for their past behavior. Never seen this from them ever. Not one single apology for murdering Syrian Muslims (who never hurt them or Lebanese Shia Arabs) let alone what they have been doing against KSA historically.
So for all I care, Israel/Zionist and Hezbollah leadership/anti-KSA/Arab Muslim Hezbollah soldiers can kill each other off to the last man. Zero sympathy for them as well outside of civilians.
Likewise nothing against ordinary non-hostile Iranians. When I talk about Iran I talk about their regime and their past behavior which should be pretty clear.
Obviously none of this excuses Israeli actions in Lebanon but this is a separate discussion.
We had Hezbollah operatives openly aiding Houthi cultists against KSA, Hezbollah affiliates (Hezbollah Al-Hijaz) doing terrorist attacks within KSA (since the 1980's) and Hezbollah leadership obsessing about KSA more than even their supposed enemy Israel, and now when they are getting their ass kicked in tiny Southern Lebanon and after losing/being kicked out of Syria after untold crimes against the Syrian Arab Muslim people, we are now going to "save" them and "help" them?
If those retards, even despite KSA helping end the Lebanese civil war (Taif agreement), helping rebuilt Lebanon and wasting untold money on this country, hosting I don't know how many Lebanese people since 60 + years (10.000's of Lebanese Shia Arabs too!), KSA never attacking Hezbollah or Lebanon (unlike them and their masters - Iranian Mullah regime) we are now suddenly supposed to ally with them?
Look nothing against the average Hezbollah foot soldier (non-hostile towards Sunni Arabs, KSA and our people - I believe most ordinary Hezbollah members, those not brainwashed by Iranian regime rhetoric and religious beliefs - Wilayat al-Faqih at least can be future partners like any Arab people) but the leadership (old one) are total sellouts and can never be trusted. Unless they change their policies completely or apologize for their past behavior. Never seen this from them ever. Not one single apology for murdering Syrian Muslims (who never hurt them or Lebanese Shia Arabs) let alone what they have been doing against KSA historically.
So for all I care, Israel/Zionist and Hezbollah leadership/anti-KSA/Arab Muslim Hezbollah soldiers can kill each other off to the last man. Zero sympathy for them as well outside of civilians.
Likewise nothing against ordinary non-hostile Iranians. When I talk about Iran I talk about their regime and their past behavior which should be pretty clear.
Obviously none of this excuses Israeli actions in Lebanon but this is a separate discussion.
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Falcon29
Elite Member
I think that's not fair to say Lebanese people don't get along and want to be part of Syria. It's a diverse nation that has potential if reform and security arrangements are made.Let us be honest. Lebanon is not a real country to begin with. It is a recent artificial French creation intended to create a homeland for the Christian Maronites. It was taken by force from Syria.
Yes, some Lebanese reading this will claim that Lebanon was created by Druze Arab tribes
Tanukh - Wikipedia
Shihab dynasty - Wikipedia
Emirate of Mount Lebanon - Wikipedia
and there is some truth to that but nevertheless.
Hence all the civil wars and continued disunity to this very day. Christian Lebanese have a totally different vision to the rest. They want to have cordial ties with Israel, they were allied with Israel for a reason during the Israeli occupation and invasion of Lebanon and civil wars and many of them dislike Palestinians heavily.
Then you have the Lebanese Sunni Arabs (1/3 of the population) who have their own viewpoints, allies and who would prefer (by large) to be a part of Syria again. This community was heavily involved with the Syrian opposition for a reason.
Then you have the Shia Lebanese in the South who are dominated by Hezbollah and firmly aligned with the Iranian regime project and worldview after 46 years of brainwashing.
Then there is the Druze community with their own agenda.
All this leaves Lebanon with no functioning state institutions, no real army or any long-term visions or any real unity.
To expect anything from Lebanon or militias like Hezbollah is frankly a waste of time.
Lebanon's only chance of prospering is for the Lebanese to genuinely unite as a people and country (I don't ever see that happening) and to build up a real military. Something that Israel is unlikely to allow anyway.
To begin with Lebanon is a tiny country both in size, population and economics.
There are at least 5 times as many Lebanese (people of Lebanese heritage) outside of Lebanon than inside Lebanon.
The economy is a complete mess due to corruption, Hezbollah involvement. Hezbollah-controlled part of Lebanon already acts like a separate country and is one of the remaining captagon/drug capitals of the region.
It is a complete joke.
And no, Iran is not going to come to the rescue of Hezbollah (despite this being an Iranian project and creation - likes of Nasrallah openly admitted that he is blindly following the Khamenei project in the region - we have several such videos publicly available so not something I make up) like we saw recently and even more so after the removal of the Al-Assad regime in Syria.
Not to mention that Iran has enough of internal problems to be aiding Hezbollah, not that their aid will change anything on the ground.
So they are pretty much screwed.
It's tough for Hezbollah as some will blame Hezbollah's exisistence for that.
But major players are also not equipping the Lebanese army. Means there is some kind of agenda to keep Lebanon weak. Either major players with money hold the view that Lebanon should be Syrian or for other reasons.
I would not want to be a part of Syria as a Lebanese person. Lebanese didn't want to be part of Assad family ruled Syria either. The country is occupied and in ruins, there's no actual reconstruction happening funds aren't there or projects are being delayed.
It's a complicated dynamic given all these factors. I imagine Shia's don't feel safe either. And there isn't trust in the Lebanese army because they're weak and not properly equipped. Everyone in Lebanon has weapons or formed militias in the past. Palestinians, Shia's, Sunnis, Christians, etc ....
So if the major players were actually interested in Lebanon prospering, they'd properly equip the Lebanese army or allow it to purchase more effective weapons + increase in size to be able to establish law and order in the country, but they aren't
Falcon29
Elite Member
Saudi Arabian won't entertain it at the moment unless Israel gets out of control and threatens Egypt
Otherwise you never know this guy may have a different viewpoint than Nasrallah. He's not that ideologically aligned with Iran. He is more aligned with Arabs. And they are in an existential crisis, at least their movement, as are the Palestinians as a people based in Gaza.
I guess he's saying we're gonna stop inciting against KSA and make peace with it, not expecting military support or funding, but KSA tolerating their exisistence in Lebanon and he's marketing Hezbollah as a core piece of a defensive formation in the region against the Israeli threat
Which was before the current ceasefire in Gaza and was seemingly escalating
Lebanon historically in 1948 participated in Arab intervention against Israel. They will inevitably participate in a future one if that ever becomes necessary again , and KSA and others can stand to gain from that by keeping Israeli threat away from them
They can also help bolster Syrian defenses to help achieve such effect
If Lebanon gets attacked again and Hezbollah collapses, Israel will more actively seek to disarm/weaken Syrian regime. Which it's refraining from doing so due to US pressure at the moment. And if it tries expelling Gaza residents -- it will threaten Egypt's security which I believe is the red line and turning point for Arabs that will brew some kind of response and push Arabs, all parties, including Hezbollah, to make a joint effort
Israel backed down recently but we don't know if it's just for resting its army and reloading
Or if it saw that as too risky and US also saw same thing
hyperman
INT'L MOD
The Lebanese army is not Lebanon's army, its just the maronite army, all the higher levels are maronite and its subservient to the US/France and thus essentially doing the Israeli bidding. Hezbollah's interests are protecting shia interests in Lebanon, so I don't blame them for not integrating. I would refuse it as well if they demanded an "integration", if I were them.
The "Lebanese army" is nothing more than the Palestinian Authority of the Iraqi army during the US occupation. A glorified police force, with no air defense, no artillery, no heavy vehicles, and no air force.
Hezbollah made many mistakes, but not integrating into the Lebanese Army is not one of them.
ResurgentIran2
Registered Member
Hezbollah is not in an existensial crisis. They are more legitimate in the eyes of their people (and no, not just Shia) than any given point in history given the genocide of their brethren in Gaza, on top of the repeated ceasefire violations by the zionist entity.
However it would be dishonest and foolish to say everything is hunky dory. The strategic outlook for them have worsened obviously. But Hezbollah is adapting. They are an extremely resiliant group.
Their structure have deep roots. They are not going anywhere, and they are most certainly not disarming (except for tactical withdrawal and disarmament from southern parts)
However it would be dishonest and foolish to say everything is hunky dory. The strategic outlook for them have worsened obviously. But Hezbollah is adapting. They are an extremely resiliant group.
Their structure have deep roots. They are not going anywhere, and they are most certainly not disarming (except for tactical withdrawal and disarmament from southern parts)
hyperman
INT'L MOD
who other than the Shia?
ResurgentIran2
Registered Member
Maronite Christians, if we exclude the portion that want to go to bed with israel. Not all of them are sellouts.
And Hezbollah indeed enjoys a level of popular support among Sunnis.
But this is mostly anecdotal, given to me by third party (Lebanese-Swedes that frequently visit their home country)
_Arabia_
Trusted Member
@ResurgentIran2
Why the hypocrisy?
Would you like to see a Saudi Arabian-founded and aligned militia or a Turkish founded and aligned-militia or a Afghan founded or aligned-militia gain monopoly in Iran that for instance only served (for the majority) the interests of Iranian Arabs, Azeri Iranians, Persians, Turkmens, Baloch or whatever groups (ethnic or religious or regional) instead of an Iranian state institution such as the army which by its design as a national army should be inclusive and serve the national state and not outsiders?
Why the idiotic praise of non-state actors (who are never a good idea for the cohesion of the host country or the region as a whole) just because they happen to be aligned with your country's regime/government (I doubt that most Iranians are in support of Iranian funds going to foreign groups when Iran has so many problems and challenges within Iran itself) and their agenda?
While citizens of the same country (whether in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen), just due to a different sect, are labelled with all kind of remarks and are seen as enemies? It makes zero sense.
No militia can even remotely threaten the existence of Israel or win any wars. Even the 2006 conflict was not a "Hezbollah victory" despite the propaganda. Unless a victory is having your capital and large parts of your country carpet bombed while Israeli casualties are 20-30 times less (military and civilian).
Why the hypocrisy?
Would you like to see a Saudi Arabian-founded and aligned militia or a Turkish founded and aligned-militia or a Afghan founded or aligned-militia gain monopoly in Iran that for instance only served (for the majority) the interests of Iranian Arabs, Azeri Iranians, Persians, Turkmens, Baloch or whatever groups (ethnic or religious or regional) instead of an Iranian state institution such as the army which by its design as a national army should be inclusive and serve the national state and not outsiders?
Why the idiotic praise of non-state actors (who are never a good idea for the cohesion of the host country or the region as a whole) just because they happen to be aligned with your country's regime/government (I doubt that most Iranians are in support of Iranian funds going to foreign groups when Iran has so many problems and challenges within Iran itself) and their agenda?
While citizens of the same country (whether in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen), just due to a different sect, are labelled with all kind of remarks and are seen as enemies? It makes zero sense.
No militia can even remotely threaten the existence of Israel or win any wars. Even the 2006 conflict was not a "Hezbollah victory" despite the propaganda. Unless a victory is having your capital and large parts of your country carpet bombed while Israeli casualties are 20-30 times less (military and civilian).
