Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[KHORSHIDSIYAH1488]

slight majority of Lebanese people likely support the state and army, not Hezbollah

if those people don't have an issue with Israel's actions, Hezbollah is not in a position to act against their view at this time

until the sentiment shifts away from the state and army

You forget to realize, most Lebanese are actually anti-Hezbollah to the point where they will gladly let Israel annex South Lebanon. These are "Phoenician" LARPing Christians, Sunnis. Hezbollah always had to operate within its ability to act on this wavering base of political support. It's why it needed to keep provoking Israel, to convince these other Lebanese (the majority) that it's a necessary evil. Your average Lebanese is of the mind that "let's not provoke the Israelis, they won't come after us" and frankly I'm sure they don't care enough to confront the reality that the Greater Israel project means their extermination. They're up to their necks in denial. They live for momentary enjoyment. This is not the iron character needed for national survival, and it a sign of a decadent people on their terminal decline.

And even with all the political sympathy of watching an actual genocide committed on fellow Arabs next door, Hezbollah was wiped in 4 days. It was a massive paper tiger primarily concerned with lofty Islamic Republic ideals of Shi'a martyrdom and "fighting with honor". You don't fight a serial killer with one hand tied behind your back, especially when he's larger than you. You do whatever it takes, whatever depravity, whatever skullduggery, whatever extreme to blind, deafen, mutilate, kill this serial killer so that he cannot threaten your people. Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic of Iran never understood this. They always thought they could play nice and that the other side had human conscience.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

And even with all the political sympathy of watching an actual genocide committed on fellow Arabs next door, Hezbollah was wiped in 4 days. It was a massive paper tiger primarily concerned with lofty Islamic Republic ideals of Shi'a martyrdom and "fighting with honor". You don't fight a serial killer with one hand tied behind your back, especially when he's larger than you. You do whatever it takes, whatever depravity, whatever skullduggery, whatever extreme to blind, deafen, mutilate, kill this serial killer so that he cannot threaten your people. Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic of Iran never understood this. They always thought they could play nice and that the other side had human conscience.

Hezbollah is a relatively small liberation movement that operates within a small state with many internal enemies, it cannot be expected to compete against the most lethal and brutal intelligence agency in the world with unlimited funding

they were not defeated on the battleground but by intelligence superiority and terrorism

 

[KHORSHIDSIYAH1488]

Hezbollah is a relatively small liberation movement that operates within a small state with many internal enemies, it cannot be expected to compete against the most lethal and brutal intelligence agency in the world with unlimited funding

they were not defeated on the battleground but by intelligence superiority and terrorism

War is not just close quarters combat. It's air, intelligence, diplomacy. Hezbollah only had a chance if Iran was willing to engage in these.

 

[Persian Gulf]

War is not just close quarters combat. It's air, intelligence, diplomacy. Hezbollah only had a chance if Iran was willing to engage in these.

Hezbollah was not supposed to be reliant on Iran

it grew too big and became easier to infiltrate as a result

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[KHORSHIDSIYAH1488]

Hezbollah was not supposed to be reliant on Iran

it grew too big and became easier to infiltrate as a result

Remember that video of the mushroom cloud over Tartous? Do you think that was a tactical nuke? It was shortly after Hezbollah's capitulation and the fall of Assad.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Remember that video of the mushroom cloud over Tartous? Do you think that was a tactical nuke? It was shortly after Hezbollah's capitulation and the fall of Assad.

no, definitely not. probably a massive ammo storage site being hit causing a massive chain reaction. we saw many of those huge explosions in Russia

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[ResurgentIran2]

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I get that Hezbollah does not want to destruction to befall Lebanon by restarting the front, but what good is a ceasefire if the other side can do whatever it pleases?

They can just do these assassinations on a slow but continuous basis, and incrementally degrade Hezbollah further.

 

[unconventional]

Hezbollah is a relatively small liberation movement that operates within a small state with many internal enemies, it cannot be expected to compete against the most lethal and brutal intelligence agency in the world with unlimited funding

These were things that were known to Hezbollah pre-Oct 07, 2023 as well.

I still maintain there were many big strategic blunders by Hezbollah, Iran and many members of the axis of resistance.

a) 1st blunder: Hamas should have coordinated its Oct-07, 2023 attacks with the other members of the axis of resistance. It did not.

b) 2nd blunder: Hezbollah should not have entered the arena half-heartedly, it should have entered the arena to win and defeat Israel, being an equal partner to Hamas.

It should have been prepared to face all consequences from the war, like Ansarallah.

c) 3rd blunder: contingencies should have made for Syria, if/when Assad would fall. The fact that Assad fell so quickly, without a fight was a huge problem.

d) 4th blunder: before the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire, Israel's aerial defense systems were getting severely depleted by Houthis/Hezbollah, and the US was not going to be able to resupply them at a reasonable rate.

Just when Israel was starting to feel the pain, they inflicted the pager terrorist attack; and killed top Hezbollah leaders, and then forced Hezbollah to retreat.

To be honest, as a supporter of anti Zionism (and a Shia), it was a pathetic end of the conflict from Hezbollah. It did not do them any favors in the eyes of the world, or the eyes of their supporters.

Meanwhile, even though the Houthis were never involved in the Gaza conflict to the same extent that Hezbollah was; caused real pain to Israel/US, and still gained a lot of respect in the Arab world.

 

[ResurgentIran2]

These were things that were known to Hezbollah pre-Oct 07, 2023 as well.

I still maintain there were many big strategic blunders by Hezbollah, Iran and many members of the axis of resistance.

a) 1st blunder: Hamas should have coordinated its Oct-07, 2023 attacks with the other members of the axis of resistance. It did not.

b) 2nd blunder: Hezbollah should not have entered the arena half-heartedly, it should have entered the arena to win and defeat Israel, being an equal partner to Hamas.

It should have been prepared to face all consequences from the war, like Ansarallah.

c) 3rd blunder: contingencies should have made for Syria, if/when Assad would fall. The fact that Assad fell so quickly, without a fight was a huge problem.

d) 4th blunder: before the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire, Israel's aerial defense systems were getting severely depleted by Houthis/Hezbollah, and the US was not going to be able to resupply them at a reasonable rate.

Just when Israel was starting to feel the pain, they inflicted the pager terrorist attack; and killed top Hezbollah leaders, and then forced Hezbollah to retreat.

To be honest, as a supporter of anti Zionism (and a Shia), it was a pathetic end of the conflict from Hezbollah. It did not do them any favors in the eyes of the world, or the eyes of their supporters.

Meanwhile, even though the Houthis were never involved in the Gaza conflict to the same extent that Hezbollah was; caused real pain to Israel/US, and still gained a lot of respect in the Arab world.

Your criticisms and points are well founded.

Sometimes the truth stings, but we need to face facts that overall this war has been a major net loss for the axis. Mistakes have definitely been made, including from Iran. The year 2024 was a catastrophe for Irans regional policy.
The only way to gain some kind of ground and maybe even the upper hand is to identify the mistakes, regroup and restrategize.

 

[Bharatah]

All of this proves that 'Israel' did not win the Lebanon war (of 2024), as I had already stated. The constant violations and provocations are meant to create a pretext for a new invasion. Then, with a 'Trump-Zionism coalition' + CIA/MOSSAD proxies (ISIS/Al-Qaeda/HTS), they can finally attempt to destroy Hezbollah and dominate Lebanon, occupying the south and other parts of the country.

Netanyahu is desperate; his actions and those of the global Zionist elite are far more about provocation than what could be called a 'military strategy.' The only way Zionism can truly win is through total chaos, with American troops and allied forces helping to occupy indefinitely. Then, they’ll go to the Zionist media and claim Palestinians are the new Nazis, that 'Israel' is an innocent victim, and Netanyahu is the new Winston Churchill.

This is why the Ayatollahs and Mullahs have never escalated to total war (and they’re right). Twenty years ago, Iran (and its allies) was a 'Saddam Hussein’s Iraq' in military terms. Today, Iran is more stronger than that time—about 25% of Russia’s level—but still incapable of waging a full-scale war there. A total war would only be possible in 40/50 years, if they continue military development(Iran would be a 60% of Russia).

NOTE: I’ve noticed that in recent months, Zionist propaganda has doubled down on lies—every day brings more fake news, disinformation, and manipulation. 'Israel' is sold as militarily invincible, with all adversaries already defeated, while simultaneously claiming they must kill civilians to combat a 'major threat,' creating an obvious contradiction.
The next phase of the propaganda war is for puppet Trump to kill some ayatollah or attack some power plants in Iran and sell this as "weakening". His military attacks are designed to have media actions and not battlefield actions, stay tuned!
Since Iran/allies lack media influence , they can’t win the narrative war and will always lose in the media.

 

[Persian Gulf]

These were things that were known to Hezbollah pre-Oct 07, 2023 as well.

I still maintain there were many big strategic blunders by Hezbollah, Iran and many members of the axis of resistance.

a) 1st blunder: Hamas should have coordinated its Oct-07, 2023 attacks with the other members of the axis of resistance. It did not.

given the state of infiltration in Hezbollah and Iran, that likely would have jeopardised the entire operation

b) 2nd blunder: Hezbollah should not have entered the arena half-heartedly, it should have entered the arena to win and defeat Israel, being an equal partner to Hamas.

It should have been prepared to face all consequences from the war, like Ansarallah.

agreed, although (i) the notion that an inherently defensive liberation group can launch an offensive operation and 'defeat' Israel is not based in reality, and (ii) we don't know how much worse the situation for Lebanon would have been in that scenario. not outside the realms of possibility that Israel would have turned Beirut into Gaza

c) 3rd blunder: contingencies should have made for Syria, if/when Assad would fall. The fact that Assad fell so quickly, without a fight was a huge problem.

hard to make contingencies when that relies on hoping HTS terrorists will turn a blind eye once they are finished slaughtering alawites

To be honest, as a supporter of anti Zionism (and a Shia), it was a pathetic end of the conflict from Hezbollah. It did not do them any favors in the eyes of the world, or the eyes of their supporters.

Meanwhile, even though the Houthis were never involved in the Gaza conflict to the same extent that Hezbollah was; caused real pain to Israel/US, and still gained a lot of respect in the Arab world.

agreed. loss of leadership and pager attacks demoralised and disrupted Hezbollah's entire operations. we were expecting 2000+ rockets per day, and got 50-150 instead. but the comparison to Yemen is a bit unfair. Yemen is 1800km+ away from Israel so are less vulnerable to IAF tactical air power dominance

 

[unconventional]

given the state of infiltration in Hezbollah and Iran, that likely would have jeopardised the entire operation


agreed, although (i) the notion that an inherently defensive liberation group can launch an offensive operation and 'defeat' Israel is not based in reality, and (ii) we don't know how much worse the situation for Lebanon would have been in that scenario. not outside the realms of possibility that Israel would have turned Beirut into Gaza


hard to make contingencies when that relies on hoping HTS terrorists will turn a blind eye once they are finished slaughtering alawites


agreed. loss of leadership and pager attacks demoralised and disrupted Hezbollah's entire operations. we were expecting 2000+ rockets per day, and got 50-150 instead. but the comparison to Yemen is a bit unfair. Yemen is 1800km+ away from Israel so are less vulnerable to IAF tactical air power dominance

a) Not sure about levels of infiltration in Hezbollah and Iran, but if there are such high levels; then maybe they should not be even part of the axis of resistance. Or even having an "axis of resistance".

b) Hezbollah is an inherently defensive group in Lebanon; but took an offensive position in Syria in 2015-16 and won.

A coordinated land operation by Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd-e-Shabi might have brought more success than the aerial attacks; which were not at the levels (numbers) required, and most of which were intercepted.

But even if a land operation inside Israel was not feasible, striking more rockets per day would have severely depleted the Israeli missile defense systems. They were already getting depleted in Northern Israel (Haifa) when the pager attacks happened.

The only way to win this war would have been to increase the cost for Israel, which the axis of resistance did not do. They were extremely defensive, self-preserving; and not really in it to defeat their enemy.

c) Although the Houthis are 1800km, and never really involved against Israel the way Hezbollah was; but they did (and still) cause severe pain for the Israelis. When Hezbollah had displaced 80k Israelis from the North, the Houthis targeted Eilat Port, and blocked the Red Sea; and their constant missile fire caused a lot of pain for Israeli citizen in south and central Israel.

Houthis have not faced airstrikes from Israel; but they have been facing attacks from the US; and for many years as well (Saudi Arabia/US attacks). However, they have chosen to remain steadfast with the people of Gaza, and the world respects them. Unfortunately Hezbollah has lost a lot of respect.