The Russian Pacific fleet is based out of Vladivostok, as was the Soviet Fleet. China doesn’t face anywhere near the containment and adversarial fleet numbers the soviets did.
The Russian Navy is in steady decline and they will have a hard time dealing with maritime threats in these areas on their own. We can't rule out that China will establish a naval base here or that China will use the Russian naval base to form a joint fleet with Russia.
China, North Korea, Russia, the three parties are negotiating the details of this access to the sea. The parties have reached agreement on matters of principle.
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‘Melaca strait’ is an old topic.
It was discussed decades ago. Decades ago, the Melaca strait did have a strong strategic influence on China. A blockade would have dealt a severe blow to China's economy in those days. However, the discussion of this topic is now completely meaningless.
We can do some rational analyses:
Who will blockade Melaca strait and who has the ability to blockade Melaca strait?
At present, which country has the guts or ability to blockade China with Melaca strait? Even the United States of America does not have that capacity. The fact that the United States keeps retreating in the first island chain fully proves this point. The only possibility is that the US is holding other countries hostage to do this stupid thing and the US is hiding behind it. But I don't think the leaders of these countries are stupid enough to go to this level.
Even if Melaca strait is blocked, something will happen?
Standoff without firing.
China will send a naval fleet to confront the naval fleet of the countries involved in the incident at Melaca strait, completely sealing off Melaca strait so that no merchant ships from any country will be allowed to pass through.
Melaca strait is not just a cargo route for China, it is also a cargo route for many countries. How long will these small and medium-sized countries be able to sustain themselves when this corridor is completely blocked? How long can China support it? When these small and medium-sized countries can no longer support it, will they continue to support this blockade against China?
The Melaca strait is indeed an important corridor for China, but it is not the only one. China imports a lot of oil from the Middle East, which enters China through the Melaca strait. But there are two other situations that people need to be aware of:
1. China has a large strategic reserve of oil, and this reserve is growing. China's own exploitation of its oil resources has been under control, and no large-scale oil exploitation has taken place.
2, China's imports of oil, part of their own use, and part of the processed petrochemicals exported. At the same time, China has been vigorously developing the new energy industry in recent years, and has made a lot of notable achievements, now the dependence on oil is not so important.
Blockade rises to war, direct fire
In between discussing it, let's go to the report of the US National Defence Strategy Board. This report analyses the military situation between the United States and its hypothetical enemies.
China calls for peace, but China doesn't mind starting a war in the Melaca strait.The question is: Are China's adversaries willing?
The PLA's military activities in the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and other regions in recent years can be seen: the frequency of their activities has been rising, the scale of their activities has been increasing, and their actions have been becoming more and more aggressive ...... U.S. forces keep retreating in these areas ......
A very simple question:
China is applying hypersonic ballistic missile technology to all of China's medium and long range ballistic missiles and mass producing them. China can already build hypersonic warheads using steel instead of expensive composites.
So, how, pray tell, will countries that want to go to war cope with these massive numbers of very accurate, powerful, and extremely inexpensive hypersonic missiles?
