FuturePAF
Think Tank Analyst
- Dec 17, 2014
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Perhaps, but Japan made that kind of calculation nearly a century ago, and once the US focused on Japan, it didn’t end well for them.If you look closely at the performance of the PLA in the last two years, you will notice a very special phenomenon.
The PLA is looking for opportunities and reasons to engage U.S. forces directly!
The PLA's various operations are pushing the range of operations ever outward, and the U.S. forces are ever moving backward.
After China took the initiative to disconnect the US-China military hotline, the US kept making requests to China through various channels and in various ways to restore the military hotline, which China ignored until the situation eased.
The U.S. can now only encourage and coerce small neighboring countries to interfere with China's development; it does not have the courage to come directly to face the PLA.
The ones who really know the PLA best are the US military, not the politicians, and not the military fans and internet troll!
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The Tumen River naval base will not be on the agenda so soon. the PLAN can use the Russian naval base. However, Russian naval bases need to be upgraded and expanded to accommodate the PLAN's long-term presence.
Right now, the US military is preoccupied send its munitions to support two wars, and the budget isn’t such that it can ramp up ship building and munitions production on top of those two wars to overmatch China, yet.
It probably may won’t be until at least the 2030s when this issue could come to a head. Currently the US is bogged down, and that more than anything is the defining factor, just like the GWOT was the issue for the first two decades of the century. Btw, this isn’t trolling or fandom, just my read of historical trends. We can agree to disagree, and hope we never have to find out.