Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

From your response, I think the translation software is off on some of the wording, or rather, we are defining certain situations using words that we don't use.

I tried to explain what I meant with more statements:
About the Russian-Ukrainian war. We are in agreement. The U.S. is not fully helping Ukraine.
Through my sources:
The U.S. exchanged Ukrainian resources and land by giving Ukraine a lot of aid in the Russo-Ukrainian war. (Let's ignore for a moment the weight that this aid carries in terms of US national power)
From a purely economic standpoint, the U.S. is actually making a business deal. When these deals are over, the U.S. will gain enormous wealth. It will greatly enhance the power of the United States. But this outcome presupposes: these deals will be completed successfully. If the war does not go the way the U.S. intended, or if Ukraine fails to fulfill the promises in the deal, i.e., the U.S. does not actually get the resources and the land, it will be a failed deal. That's the risk of the deal. Whether China or Russia acquiesces or interferes with the deal will be the biggest risk factor.

However, America's NATO allies suffered greatly from the war. The disruption of oil pipelines has led to a serious energy crisis in Europe, where countries have had to spend more money to buy energy from the United States, as well as Russian oil transiting through India. At the same time, these countries supported Ukraine with a large number of active weapons and equipment, and again spent money on new weapons and equipment from the United States. The essence of these phenomena is that the US is harvesting its own allies .............
As we observe through economic activities, many European countries are getting closer to China economically. They will still have a lot of opposition to China at the political and diplomatic level, but the economic activities below the table are moving forward .............
The most important factor for the U.S. to be the world's policeman is to have a large number of “allies”. But now these “allies” seem to be doing something quietly .............

Meanwhile, the economic and technological war between China and the United States is still ongoing. Of course, there have been tentative actions at the military level.

In the case of the Russo-Ukrainian war, China will not intervene in that war until the US is massively committed. China's attitude and objective is simple: Russia cannot collapse. Any outcome beyond that is acceptable to China. But the US is different. This determines how China and the U.S. will respond to the aftermath of this war. It is unlikely that the US will achieve the outcome it wants with these current investments.

My analysis: the US will continue to invest more in Ukraine. China will continue to wait and see. China will continue to focus on building up its own national strength in preparation for a future head-to-head war between the U.S. and China.

This is a analysis of the current national development of China and the United States.
The issue here is, at a economic standpoint. US did not lose anything they had not allocated. Bear in mind, all the budget were there, and in most case, it's a "use it or lose it" situation. And we aren't talking about getting in extra hundreds billion a year (it would be 300 billions a year for Iraq and Afghan combine) we are talking about 40-50 billions a year. That was well within the budget even if we are talking about extra allocation.

The economic impact can only be applying once, it's not ongoing because once you cut off the Russian (Which most EU did) it won't have a lasting impact on their economy, in fact, in most EU case (beside Eastern Europe that heavily deal with Russia before the war) have largely going back to pre-war level, oil price has gone back to $85-89 a barrel and inflation rate had dropped back to 3 to 4 %. The economic impact wasn't at that stage and EU as a whole is more than enough to deal with that impact. You are talking about the biggest Economic group in the world...

While on the other hand, those European country (and USA of course) are simply giving old weapon away and brought brand new from the US and EU, just like the US Ukraine bill, up to 80% of those money the Allies patched to Ukraine was actually being spend within the US and Europe, so those money were actually going back to US and EU economy. And those weapon (older F-16, older Leo 2 Tank) are going to be replaced anyway, what this war did is just brought the schedule up.

Again, as I say. The west involvement with the Ukraine war is not as big as you think and what Russia make out to be. This war is not going to be enough to make a lasting dent in the US and EU, not with 50 or 60 bil a year rate, let alone depleting their power, if they were giving aid at the stage of depleting their own power, the west would have dump a few hundred Fighter Aircraft and a few thousand tank, a few thousand Artillery and SPG and a few thousand cruise missile, along with a few trillion dollars combine every year to generate service and compensation. Russia would have been defeated in Ukraine a long time ago......

Also, it's worth notice that US wasn't aiming at collapsing Russia, the US was aimed to diminish Russia as a regional power, and make it Chinese problem (like North Korea), if US want to destroy Russia, all they need to do is to raise their own oil production by 10% and ask Canada to do the same (which was the first and tird biggest oil production country in the world), then oil price will be below $50 (around 35-49) a barrel, Russia is going to lose money from extracting oil and you are talking about 400 to 500 billions for Russia, that's almost half their GDP. The problem for China vis-a-vis Russia is, a damaged Russia is no good for China, because it would become their economic burden, there aren't many resources Russia had, and China can take most of the resource Russia had China had it too (like copper, nickel, sulphur), you are talking about roughly 600 billion worth of oil, gas and raw material (Iron ore, cobalt mainly) . Even if you can digest them all, in exchange you would have to prop up the entire 1.5 trillion Pre-War Russia economy. That trade is always going to be deficit, and with Rouble being non-tradeable, which mean you will need to pump 1 trillion worth of Yuan into Russia every year in order to make it afloat. And as you said, China can't have a collapsed Russia, which mean you are forced to take that mess.
 
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Actually, the reason why Ukraine suffered is because US won't want to embattle itself to become burdened. There are a lot of ceiling to go if US expand its military production. The reason here is why?

On the other hand, if and when you see a US war with China, it's never going to be US alone, whether or not they are enough to deal with the issue alone. Which is the reason why I said it's pointless to compare the US military complex to China vis-a-vis, head to head, you need to compare the entire NATO input and NATO allies input (Japan, SK, Australia and so on) because what you are going to see is all those country China will also be facing if and when the Chinese is at war with the US. Because even if these countries aren't directly at war with China, they are going to send material support to the US.

That is called "Strategic Distribution".........
I agree, as I pointed it out in an earlier post. Even spinning up shipbuilding will necessitate outsourcing some production to South Korean and Japanese shipyards for the sake of expediency. Equally, the countries most dependent on the US will be drawn in to support the cause. This is something I tried to explain as well; these countries will be a staging ground whether they want to be involved or not.
 
You surely don't know that shipbuilding is not simply about shipyards but a whole complete complex supply chain which involves thousands if not more manufacturing suppliers of different parts and levels, do you? and what's more, the most important part is a large skilled shipbuilding work force, which takes decades to prepare. 2-3 years? you must be day dreaming.
I think you are underestimating contractors with a profit motive.
 
The friction between China and the Philippines is a normal border friction. Even though the U.S. has been instructing the Philippines to escalate the incident, it is still in the realm of normal border friction.

China has been continuously developing its maritime police in recent years. A large number of new personnel and equipment need to be tested. The Philippine action gives the Chinese Marine Police Bureau a very good opportunity and testing ground. The consumption of Chinese marine police operations in these places is no different from the consumption of their training in their own homes. This is a normal expenditure.
The amount of ammunition consumed by the PLA in every military exercise in recent years is not a small number. It is comparable to the amount of ammunition consumed in some small to medium sized wars.
During the Chinese New Year in 2023. The amount of gunpowder consumed by Chinese civilians setting off fireworks exceeds the total amount of gunpowder consumed during the entire Russian-Ukrainian war. ------ Fireworks are banned in the vast majority of China's urban areas.

These are normal consumption.

Japan was very powerful back then. But, the energy generated by its land mass and population was not enough to support the huge wars it launched. Although it did a lot of construction in occupied areas such as East and Southeast Asia, it did not have the support of a large number of ordinary people, resulting in not much energy being generated in those areas.
Prior to American intervention, Japan's expenditures far exceeded its output, and a large number of young adults within Japan entered military service rather than working on the mainland. Its war expenditures were based on the accumulation of history and the plundering of the occupied territories, which is not a recyclable way.
I suppose China will try to keep the friction below a certain threshold, and use the experience for training, but when the Philippines and the US will be looking for a casus belli, any one of these incidents could be blown out of proportion to justify a blockade. A modern day Gulf of Tonkin incident.
 
The issue here is, at a economic standpoint. US did not lose anything they had not allocated. Bear in mind, all the budget were there, and in most case, it's a "use it or lose it" situation. And we aren't talking about getting in extra hundreds billion a year (it would be 300 billions a year for Iraq and Afghan combine) we are talking about 40-50 billions a year. That was well within the budget even if we are talking about extra allocation.

The economic impact can only be applying once, it's not ongoing because once you cut off the Russian (Which most EU did) it won't have a lasting impact on their economy, in fact, in most EU case (beside Eastern Europe that heavily deal with Russia before the war) have largely going back to pre-war level, oil price has gone back to $85-89 a barrel and inflation rate had dropped back to 3 to 4 %. The economic impact wasn't at that stage and EU as a whole is more than enough to deal with that impact. You are talking about the biggest Economic group in the world...

While on the other hand, those European country (and USA of course) are simply giving old weapon away and brought brand new from the US and EU, just like the US Ukraine bill, up to 80% of those money the Allies patched to Ukraine was actually being spend within the US and Europe, so those money were actually going back to US and EU economy. And those weapon (older F-16, older Leo 2 Tank) are going to be replaced anyway, what this war did is just brought the schedule up.

Again, as I say. The west involvement with the Ukraine war is not as big as you think and what Russia make out to be. This war is not going to be enough to make a lasting dent in the US and EU, not with 50 or 60 bil a year rate, let alone depleting their power, if they were giving aid at the stage of depleting their own power, the west would have dump a few hundred Fighter Aircraft and a few thousand tank, a few thousand Artillery and SPG and a few thousand cruise missile, along with a few trillion dollars combine every year to generate service and compensation. Russia would have been defeated in Ukraine a long time ago......

Also, it's worth notice that US wasn't aiming at collapsing Russia, the US was aimed to diminish Russia as a regional power, and make it Chinese problem (like North Korea), if US want to destroy Russia, all they need to do is to raise their own oil production by 10% and ask Canada to do the same (which was the first and tird biggest oil production country in the world), then oil price will be below $50 (around 35-49) a barrel, Russia is going to lose money from extracting oil and you are talking about 400 to 500 billions for Russia, that's almost half their GDP. The problem for China vis-a-vis Russia is, a damaged Russia is no good for China, because it would become their economic burden, there aren't many resources Russia had, and China can take most of the resource Russia had China had it too (like copper, nickel, sulphur), you are talking about roughly 600 billion worth of oil, gas and raw material (Iron ore, cobalt mainly) . Even if you can digest them all, in exchange you would have to prop up the entire 1.5 trillion Pre-War Russia economy. That trade is always going to be deficit, and with Rouble being non-tradeable, which mean you will need to pump 1 trillion worth of Yuan into Russia every year in order to make it afloat. And as you said, China can't have a collapsed Russia, which mean you are forced to take that mess.

Seriously in the long term I see Russia as an ally of USA or Western Europe not China. They will maintain a trading relationship with China
 
I think you are underestimating contractors with a profit motive.
How can you turn one million Americans into skilled experienced welders in 3 years, and how you build up a complete shipbuilding supply chain in the same period of time? when was the last time such a thing ever happened in the human history?
For many industries, once you lose it, you can never get it back again.
 
Seriously in the long term I see Russia as an ally of USA or Western Europe not China. They will maintain a trading relationship with China
Freedom of dreaming,lol
 
I think you are underestimating contractors with a profit motive.
That is exactly the problem rather than the solution watch this video showing the problem with shipbuilding in US They sometimes underestimate their capabilities to build ships Getting skilled workers is the hardest thing to do and then they have to retain them but if the salary is not competitive people just jump jobs


US Navy's LCS is already a disaster and now it’s becoming obvious the Constellation class frigate is shaping up to be yet another US navy screwup. This video explains why that is. It goes into the delays, design issues, the broader industry problems and problematic procurement decision policies.
 
Name countries who China considers allies. A simple question ?? Isn't it ?
Why would China need an ally US needs ally because alone she can't match the Chinese power in the Pacific.

Learn from the history of the Korean War US and the West plus other countries face China alone Does it make any difference?
 
Why would china need ally US need ally because alone she just can't match the Chinese power in pacific

You cannot project power far away from China without allies
 
You cannot project power far away from China without allies
Why would China need to project power? She is not bent on conquest . All she is interested in is West Pacific and Taiwan maybe SCS.All of them are close enough
 
Why would China need to project power? She is not bent on conquest . All she is interested in is West Pacific and Taiwan maybe SCS.All of them are close enough

you need defend your exports and imports throughout the world unless you can come up with completely land based trading system
 

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