Modernising the Bangladesh Air Force: time to turn away from China and Russia

[kambhakt]

My cat read this post and started laughing and rolling all over the floor. I was like what the heck this cat found so funny !
Man I tell you what, cats these days, smh !

We all know that cats are not as intelligent as human beings.

Now can we get back to the topic.

 

[Afif]

India does not need to take military action against BD.

One option it has is to stop electricity exports and stop transit electricity from Nepal / Bhutan. You will need your own electricity generation plants to stop India from having this leverage.

You are overestimating India's leverage when to comes to electricity import. Iirc, BD only import around 10% of its total need. 90% are locally generated.

Another is to blockage the Bay of Bengal maybe 1500 km south of BD. You will need maybe 8 AIP equipped subs. Also maritime patrol planes that can operate 1500 km from their base to locate Indian naval assets and pass that information to the subs. And also jets that can give cover for these patrol planes 1500 km from their base.

Naval blockade is a valid argument. But you are expecting us to play by your rule.

There is actually a relatively better strategy instead of attempting to directly break up the blockade head to head. Start sinking Indian trade ships. Easier than directly fighting the Indian Navy. Yes, it will try to gaurd it, but that would be harder than protecting its own ships. Which are more survivable and purpose-built.

On the other hand, big cargo vessels and tankers have unique signetures that can be picked up from 1000km away by modern submarines' sensors. (Down to the individual vessel Identification) And then there are too many of them active along shipping roots any day. They can't maneuver or don't have onboard countermeasures.

But more importantly, Indian Navy doesn't have enough assets (surface and areal) to provide sufficient escort. (In fact, probbaly no navy has except USN. And maybe PLAN in the near future) we can fully leverage the asymmetric advantage of modern subsurface warfare and create impactful disruption to india's maritime trade in the east. In this regard, MPA and the sustainability of the whole air ops is not imperative to the strategic success. Modern AIP boats on their own would have enough deterrence.

Of course that depends on BD acquiring around 6/8 AIP boats. It's doable if we see things gradually going down the wrong path. But I don't think it will. India and BD will probably be fine.

 

[ety]

Being neutral does nothing to strengthen your position especially for a country like Bangladesh

What real benefits can BD get out being in the US camp ? Then, BD will likely antagonize other powers.

 

[kambhakt]

You are overestimating India's leverage when to comes to electricity import. Iirc, BD only import around 10% of its total need. 90% are locally generated.

I think you are considering increasing this.

Naval blockade is a valid argument. But you are expecting us to play by your rule.

There is actually a relatively better strategy instead of attempting to directly break up the blockade head to head. Start sinking Indian trade ships. Easier than directly fighting the Indian Navy. Yes, it will try to gaurd it, but that would be harder than protecting its own ships. Which are more survivable and purpose-built.

On the other hand, big cargo vessels and tankers have unique signetures that can be picked up from 1000km away by modern submarines' sensors. (Down to the individual vessel Identification) And then there are too many of them active along shipping roots any day. They can't maneuver or don't have onboard countermeasures.

But more importantly, Indian Navy doesn't have enough assets (surface and areal) to provide sufficient escort. (In fact, probbaly no navy has except USN. And maybe PLAN in the near future) we can fully leverage the asymmetric advantage of modern subsurface warfare and create impactful disruption to india's maritime trade in the east. In this regard, MPA and the sustainability of the whole air ops is not imperative to the strategic success. Modern AIP boats on their own would have enough deterrence.

Of course that depends on BD acquiring around 6/8 AIP boats. It's doable if we see things gradually going down the wrong path. But I don't think it will. India and BD will probably be fine.

Indian trade ships will stop using ports near Bangladesh. Your subs will have to move further and take more risks. We have 12 P8I in addition to the naval ships. Also underwater hydrophone installed. Submarines only protection is stealth. Once detected it is as good as gone. A submarines make 5 knots on AIP. Not enough to run away. And on diesel engine, it can be detected from very far off. I think you will be losing a few subs in this process.

Even if you are successful in getting a few ships, its maybe 5% of our trade compared with almost 100% of yours.

I did say that you would need 6-8 AIP boats. So I guess we agree on that.

 

[Michael Corleone]

What real benefits can BD get out being in the US camp ? Then, BD will likely antagonize other powers.

Trade benefits especially since we export there more than we import, superior defense capabilities, free from Indian bullying.

 

[Afif]

I think you are considering increasing this.

Indian trade ships will stop using ports near Bangladesh. Your subs will have to move further and take more risks. We have 12 P8I in addition to the naval ships. Also underwater hydrophone installed. Submarines only protection is stealth. Once detected it is as good as gone. A submarines make 5 knots on AIP. Not enough to run away. And on diesel engine, it can be detected from very far off. I think you will be losing a few subs in this process.

Even if you are successful in getting a few ships, its maybe 5% of our trade compared with almost 100% of yours.

I did say that you would need 6-8 AIP boats. So I guess we agree on that.

You seesm to think disruption is proportional to the number of shio we sink. But that's not necessarily through.
If we are able to sink 15-20 big ships, that would create enough credible threats to many shipping companies to back off. Of course, we would be loosing several boats. (Perhaps the most of it) Yes, P8i are good. But modern submarines still have the inherent asymmetric advantage. If you read about the noise level achieved by these new gen AIP boats, its said to be around 90 decibels. The same as the ocean floors average noise level. Quieter than their nuclear counterparts. That's why passive sonobouyas and hydrophone aren't that effective what they used to be.

The disruption to the trade would be more than 5%. Over 55% of India's trade passes through malacca. We planning to cause trouble around that line in open ocean. Yes, that's a bit far away but nevertheless doable for AIP boats. Realistically disruption to the trade would be 15% or more.

 

[Strider]

US, UK and France has technological overmatch when it comes SSNs and SSBNs, as well as missiles.

I wasn't aware France operates nuclear submarines. I was under the impression that Russian submarines are quieter and their missiles are faster. Superiority particularly for their surface-to-air weaponry.

At the end of the day, it is all about money management.

 

[Afif]

I wasn't aware France operates nuclear submarines. I was under the impression that Russian submarines are quieter

Definitely not. The most quietest ones
today are Suffren class of SSN. Followed by Seawolf, Virginia and Astute. And then we could say Yasen.

As for SSBN, it is Triumphant class boats followed by Vanguard and Borei.

 

[Strider]

Definitely not. The most quietest ones
today are Suffren class of SSN. Followed by Seawolf, Virginia and Astute. And then we could say Yasen.

As for SSBN, it is Triumphant class boats followed by Vanguard and Borei.

If these are indeed verified, the French do pack some serious power.

 

[UKBengali]

If these are indeed verified, the French do pack some serious power.

No France has always had 2nd rate SSNs among the major western powers.

US is ahead, closely followed by UK.

France and Russia are somewhat equivalent with China the wild horse as their new Type-95SSN could leapfrog them into the class of the US/UK.

 

[Afif]

No France has always had 2nd rate SSNs among the major western powers.

US is ahead, closely followed by UK.

France and Russia are somewhat equivalent with China the wild horse as their new Type-95SSN could leapfrog them into the class of the US/UK.

Don't talk about things that you don't know about. You do that too often.

 

[UKBengali]

Don't talk about things that you don't know about. You do that too often.

Says the clueless fanboy.

I have probably forgotten more than you have learnt in your life.lol

Show some respect and stop showing your immaturity all the time.

 

[Afif]

Says the clueless fanboy.


I have probably forgotten more than you have learnt in your life.lol

Show some respect and stop showing your immaturity all the time.

Lol, i am not a fanboy. It is hard to respect if you continue to talk out of your depth.

Suffren class boats uses Turbo-electric drive when cruising at lower speed. A technology that non of the other Western SSNs has but looking to introduce in their next gen SSN/SSBN programs like. Because it is basic knowledge that turbo-electric drives are queiter than mechanical drive and a major improvement. Look up Colombia and dreadnought class boats' planned propulsion.

Similarly, Suffren is the only Western SSN that has X shaped rudder. Again, something that US and UK looking to introduce in their next gen boats.

Also, leveraging its newer design, it feature higher automation.

DCNS's suffren program director explicitly stated, Suffren as quiet as the ocean itself. Which is around 90 decibels. That makes sense given the application of new gen design and propulsion technology.

Submarine Source	Decibels
Ocean background noise [1]	90 decibels
SSN-21 Seawolf class SSN	95 decibels
Virginia class SSN	95 decibels
Russian Improved 636 Kilo class SSK	105 decibels
Akula class SSN	110 decibels
Improved Los Angeles SSN	105 - 110 decibels
Type 093 Shang SSN	110 decibels
Type 094 Jin SSBN [2]	120 decibels

​

And they also have evidence to back it up. In 2009
British SSBN Vanguard bumped into French Triumphant SSBN. The advanced sensor of vanguard couldn't detect Triumphant until it literally bumped into it. (And vice versa) and today Suffren is a leap over the old Triumphant.

 

[kambhakt]

You seesm to think disruption is proportional to the number of shio we sink. But that's not necessarily through.
If we are able to sink 15-20 big ships, that would create enough credible threats to many shipping companies to back off. Of course, we would be loosing several boats. (Perhaps the most of it) Yes, P8i are good. But modern submarines still have the inherent asymmetric advantage. If you read about the noise level achieved by these new gen AIP boats, its said to be around 90 decibels. The same as the ocean floors average noise level. Quieter than their nuclear counterparts. That's why passive sonobouyas and hydrophone aren't that effective what they used to be.

The disruption to the trade would be more than 5%. Over 55% of India's trade passes through malacca. We planning to cause trouble around that line in open ocean. Yes, that's a bit far away but nevertheless doable for AIP boats. Realistically disruption to the trade would be 15% or more.

Big ships will go to the west coast. You won't be able to sink a single one. They will be out of range. The big ports of India do more then 20000 ships a year altogether. 15-20 is actually less than 0.1%.

An AIP sub travels at 5 knots and has around 20 days endurance. That is around 4500 km. If you are doing the full distance using AIP, you will not reach Malacca. You will not be going in a straight line and you will need some amount of charge to prowl around searching for victims. You could run the starting 500 km and the last 500km on the return journey on diesel engine, but that would be dangerous.

Even if the sub reached the Malacca shipping lane, when the submarine comes to periscope depth, what it will see is a lot of ships. There is no knowing which one to hit. None of them will have the Indian flag. Any information the captain has will be 10 days old.

 

[Afif]

Big ships will go to the west coast. You won't be able to sink a single one. They will be out of range. The big ports of India do more then 20000 ships a year altogether. 15-20 is actually less than 0.1%.

Whether it goes to east coast or west coast, doesn't matter. Because it has to pass through there. Over 55% india's maritime trade passes through Malacca straight. We would definitely sink many of them. And we don't have to necessarily get inside Malacca. We could definitely ambush in and around. I said 15-20 large ships as the opening salvo. (Not the end state.) Each carrying $300-400 millions worth good on average. That would be enough to deter many shipping companies.

An AIP sub travels at 5 knots and has around 20 days endurance. That is around 4500 km. If you are doing the full distance using AIP, you will not reach Malacca. You will not be going in a straight line and you will need some amount of charge to prowl around searching for victims. You could run the starting 500 km and the last 500km on the return journey on diesel engine, but that would be dangerous.

You don't expect BN to be equipped with AIP subs only. There is an ongoing frigate program. Given we are talking hypotheticals, those ships can be utilized togather for a degree of escort as they won't Go on any offensive. Also, I don't understand why did you say BN sub can't reach Malacca? It's around 1900-2000km if we go a bit zigzag. Less distance in straight travel.

As for submarines needing to return to base after running out of AIP fuel, well, this is not so straight forward. lithium ion battery equipped AIP boats are now becoming available. thus new boats can recharge at periscope depth after 15 days of being submerged, dive again for another 15 and resurface again. It can repeat such process up to 3 times. Basically, augmented with lithium ion battery, it can conserve its AIP fuels and use it economically in stages. (Same process can also be replicated with Lead-acid batteries equipped AIP boats. Although interval periods bwtween resurfacing would be smaller.) In such cases, BD submarines won't return to bases, Instead they will go further down into open ocean, recharge and come back again. For exmaple, a type 214 has 80 days of total endurance.

Yes, there will be risk in such tactics. But military ops always comes with high danger. Risk acceptance is part of the job.

Even if the sub reached the Malacca shipping lane, when the submarine comes to periscope depth, what it will see is a lot of ships. There is no knowing which one to hit. None of them will have the Indian flag. Any information the captain has will be 10 days old.

No, modern submarine have sensitive enough sensor system that can differentiate a ship down to its individual signeture (not just the model or variant) from hundreds of miles away. These are continuesly prerecorded in peacetimes to utilized in conflict. No need to go to at periscope depth to fire torpedos like ww2.