Myanmar’ Rakhine State is likely going to become Independent very soon!!!!

The Arakan army has captured more than 95% of the townships in Rakhine state and they are onto the path of declaring Rakhine state as an independent state. The Burmese army have suffered huge casualties and is slowly retreating from the region. Below is the recent map released just yesterday to show the defeat of Burmese forces in Rakhine state
Only someone who is totally ignorant of the situation in Myanmar would make such a judgment that “Rakhine State will soon become independent”.

It is possible for Rakhine State to maintain a high degree of autonomy, but there is no possibility of independence.

The situation faced by the military junta in Myanmar today is a means of “punishment” by the Chinese Government against the military junta. However, this does not mean that the Government of China will completely abandon its support for the military junta and condone the independence of Rakhine State. It is a political game.

Official attitude: as long as they don't offend Chinese interests. China will not directly intervene in Myanmar's internal strife.
Political balance: It is in China's best interest to maintain a certain balance between the various local ethnic armed forces in Myanmar. China can regulate this balance through many non-war means. There are many gates between China and Burma. Choosing which gates to open and which to close can easily manipulate the balance of power.

The Chinese government can allow the Rakhine Army to compete with the Burmese military government for territory to a certain extent, but it will not allow Rakhine State to become independent.
 
Become Independent is very unlikely the junta will not let that happen. Being an autonomous region like the wa state model is what every ethnic minority groups are striving for. It's good that AA wants closer ties with china. They will need china support to avoid further escalation with the junta.
 
That's why I think china will fly bombers through Myanmar airspace if there's any sort of blockade in Malacca. Chinese influence in the country is just too strong to ignore.At least the rebels control territories in the Shan state will be free for Chinese warplanes to fly But that's for a different topic lol china can also do that through laos and Cambodia to South china sea as well but it's pretty much a Chinese lake at this point. There are options On the table to think about. Having rebel groups on china side is a huge leverage china can use for future negotiation with the junta lol. It's good to keep the balance but to have a couple militia groups ready to take china order when needed is a bonus imo.Something like what Iran is doing. U can funneling weapons to kuki , United liberation front of assam , and maoist people liberation through KIA or other rebel groups in myanmar but they are too tiny in comparison a small rebel group in Myanmar consist of at least 10 thousand strong lol u see how a small group of rebels in Kashmir can inflict massive damage to Indian securities in the region.
 
Last edited:
Last edited:
Don't you think UN will take an objection of such a move by Bangladesh? What will be UN reaction as per you?



What did the useless UN do when the Rohingyas were slaughtered and genocided?

Useless organisation and when the time is right(5-10 years from now) BD will help create an independent Rohingya land in the north of Arakhan under BD protection.

Both Indian and Chinese interests will be fully respected of course.
 
What did the useless UN do when the Rohingyas were slaughtered and genocided?

Useless organisation and when the time is right(5-10 years from now) BD will help create an independent Rohingya land in the north of Arakhan under BD protection.

Both Indian and Chinese interests will be fully respected of course.
Tragically, Rohingya have been forced to fight on both sides of the conflict. This complicated and brutal warfare has contributed significantly to the thick fog of war.Its possible to establish an autonomous control region in northern arakan state with enough support from Bangladesh through military assistance since rohingya is the largest ethnic group there. The question remains are the rohinyas willing to fight for their own autonomous region because every other groups have shown their willingness to fight against the junta for self determination. 1727511920755.png
 
Tragically, Rohingya have been forced to fight on both sides of the conflict. This complicated and brutal warfare has contributed significantly to the thick fog of war.Its possible to establish an autonomous control region in northern arakan state with enough support from Bangladesh through military assistance since rohingya is the largest ethnic group there. The question remains are the rohinyas willing to fight for their own autonomous region because every other groups have shown their willingness to fight against the junta for self determination. View attachment 68117


Rohingyas will fight if BD fully backs them. They are the only ethnic group that did not have a state backer and so the junta was able to genocide them and ethnically cleanse them from their lands. Around 80% of Rohingya now live outside their Arakhan homeland.
 
Rohingyas will fight if BD fully backs them. They are the only ethnic group that did not have a state backer and so the junta was able to genocide them and ethnically cleanse them from their lands. Around 80% of Rohingya now live outside their Arakhan homeland.
Now is probably the best time to force the junta hand because they are losing control left and right. But the question is who should the rohinyas ally to arakan or the junta because u cant please both sides. The junta has also been very effective at playing divide and conquer by force conscription of rohinyas to fight against arakan army so now they are left in a very tough situation.
 
Last edited:
The arakan army has the benefit of being trained by kachin independence army one of the oldest insurgent groups in myanmar. They basically trained many communist party groups back in the day and the defacto ruler of kachin state near the border with northeastern India. Arakan army went from a disciple into one of the biggest rebel forces in the country. I think they are second only behind UWSA. Rcss was very strong back then because of Khun sa billions of illicit drug money they went a little too ambitious trying to create a Shan state independent country then ended up getting carved a piece of land by UWSA . Now UWSA is the biggest dawg in town that everyone fears.
 
Last edited:
Myanmar is basically the wild West. U can only control your destiny by creating your own clique. It's basically Syrian civil war but without much foreign interference and more than just sunni vs Shia divide this is every community for their own faith. U either fight for it or u get taken over by someone else.
 
That's why I think china will fly bombers through Myanmar airspace if there's any sort of blockade in Malacca. Chinese influence in the country is just too strong to ignore.At least the rebels control territories in the Shan state will be free for Chinese warplanes to fly But that's for a different topic lol china can also do that through laos and Cambodia to South china sea as well but it's pretty much a Chinese lake at this point. There are options On the table to think about. Having rebel groups on china side is a huge leverage china can use for future negotiation with the junta lol. It's good to keep the balance but to have a couple militia groups ready to take china order when needed is a bonus imo.Something like what Iran is doing. U can funneling weapons to kuki , United liberation front of assam , and maoist people liberation through KIA or other rebel groups in myanmar but they are too tiny in comparison a small rebel group in Myanmar consist of at least 10 thousand strong lol u see how a small group of rebels in Kashmir can inflict massive damage to Indian securities in the region.
I need to make a point here. Don't try to analyze China's possible strategies with the logic of Western thinking.

As a result of the colonial era, English is known as the dominant language of the world. Many countries whose mother tongue is not English also use English as an official language. This phenomenon has made English thinking logic widespread in the world. Please note that we are talking about thinking logic here, not position. There are some countries whose political stance is not the same as that of the United States or the United Kingdom, but their logic of thinking is still the logic of thinking in English.
On PDF, there are Pakistanis or Indians who do not like the US or the UK, but as you can see from their statements, their political stance is still based on English thinking logic. This is a difference caused by linguistic and cultural environment and cannot be avoided.

China started universal education in English in the 1980s. But English is not the official language of China. The vast majority of Chinese people have a very abstract level of English. For example, my English level. I can use a lot of professional software in an all-English environment, and I can fully read professional technical books in all-English, but I can't use English to chat with my friends on PDF. When I go to other countries, I have to take a translator with me or use translation software. This is a Chinese characteristic.

Therefore, China's attitude and way of dealing with international issues cannot be analyzed by English thinking logic.

China is still centered on its own economic construction at present and for a long time to come. It will not have much willingness to intervene in disputed affairs in other regions. China is a member of the P5 and this status makes it necessary for China to have some activities at the diplomatic level. But China will not use some practical actions that will affect the situation of international disputes, unless it has seriously affected China's own interests.

If you want to analyze China's strategy on Burma and Malacca, you need to know some history first.

===============================
@UKBengali No one in China is discussing the Rohingya issue. We know absolutely nothing about anything there. I do not even know whether the Rohingya belong to Myanmar or Bangladesh or India.
 
Now do they believe in Karma ? It is all started after they run amok toward Muslim Rohingya....
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top