Michael
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- Jan 5, 2024
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Only someone who is totally ignorant of the situation in Myanmar would make such a judgment that “Rakhine State will soon become independent”.The Arakan army has captured more than 95% of the townships in Rakhine state and they are onto the path of declaring Rakhine state as an independent state. The Burmese army have suffered huge casualties and is slowly retreating from the region. Below is the recent map released just yesterday to show the defeat of Burmese forces in Rakhine state
It is possible for Rakhine State to maintain a high degree of autonomy, but there is no possibility of independence.
The situation faced by the military junta in Myanmar today is a means of “punishment” by the Chinese Government against the military junta. However, this does not mean that the Government of China will completely abandon its support for the military junta and condone the independence of Rakhine State. It is a political game.
Official attitude: as long as they don't offend Chinese interests. China will not directly intervene in Myanmar's internal strife.
Political balance: It is in China's best interest to maintain a certain balance between the various local ethnic armed forces in Myanmar. China can regulate this balance through many non-war means. There are many gates between China and Burma. Choosing which gates to open and which to close can easily manipulate the balance of power.
The Chinese government can allow the Rakhine Army to compete with the Burmese military government for territory to a certain extent, but it will not allow Rakhine State to become independent.