Myanmar’ Rakhine State likely going to become Independent very soon

The persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar dates back to the 1970s. Since then, the Rohingya people have been persecuted on a regular basis by the government and nationalist Buddhists. The tensions between the various religious groups in the country were often exploited by past military rulers of Myanmar. Amnesty International notes that the Rohingya suffered human rights violations under past military dictatorships since 1978, and many of them have fled to neighbouring Bangladesh as a result. In 2005, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees assisted with the repatriation of Rohingyas from Bangladesh, but allegations of human rights abuses in the refugee camps threatened this effort. In 2015, 140,000 Rohingyas remained in IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) camps after communal riots in 2012.

In 2015, the Allard K. Lowenstein International Human Rights Clinic at Yale Law School found "strong evidence that genocide is being committed against Rohingya." After eight months of analysing whether the persecution of the Rohingya in Rakhine State satisfied the criteria for genocide, the study found that the Burmese government, with the help of extremist Buddhist monks, was responsible for ethnic cleansing and genocide against the Rohingya
 
You don't think the junta is afraid of China?

I'll tell you one thing. This year the Public Security Bureau of Fuyuan County under Zhaotong City in China's Yunnan Province issued a wanted notice on telecommunication fraud against Myanmar. The Burmese junta immediately arrested their deputy minister of defense and then handed the deputy minister over to China.

The military junta did not even dare to disobey the order of a county-level public security bureau in China.




btw: In general, there are no forces in Burma that would be hostile to China or harm its interests. But China wants Myanmar to return to stability and reactivate China's access to Indian Ocean ports from Myanmar. But China is not capable of doing that for the time being because it has no ability to stop them from hating each other. China can only allow Wa to gain military superiority and then try to balance the forces of all sides through Wa.
Secondly, for historical reasons, China's influence over Myanmar is concentrated in the north and east of the country. China has little influence over Rakhine State in the western part of the country.
 
Last edited:
I have a personal opinion, and it's just my own.
Analyze history. China has used force to conquer many places during its historical power, including the Indo-China Peninsula and the Korean Peninsula. However, most of the time these areas were highly autonomous. These regions were also the first to rebel whenever there was some problem within the Chinese court.
So, analyzing from the perspective of geostrategy. It is in China's best interest that these regions are always in a state of multiple power struggles. China can make full use of these power struggles to ensure the maximization of its own interests. However, if there is any possibility of unification, China is bound to intervene forcefully. The Korean War and the Sino-Vietnamese War were both based on this theory.
I think here is a trap that China has set aside for the US.

Even if the U.S. government understands that it is a trap, the populists flooding the U.S. will one day send the U.S. military into this trap, and then we will use the savage mountains of Myitkyina to suck the last drop of blood out of the U.S. soldiers and the last dollar inside the U.S. treasury.

Watch, the US government can't control these lunatics anymore. They're bound to be unable to resist taking a gamble one day.
 
You don't think the junta is afraid of China?

I'll tell you one thing. This year the Public Security Bureau of Fuyuan County under Zhaotong City in China's Yunnan Province issued a wanted notice on telecommunication fraud against Myanmar. The Burmese junta immediately arrested their deputy minister of defense and then handed the deputy minister over to China.

The military junta did not even dare to disobey the order of a county-level public security bureau in China.




btw: In general, there are no forces in Burma that would be hostile to China or harm its interests. But China wants Myanmar to return to stability and reactivate China's access to Indian Ocean ports from Myanmar. But China is not capable of doing that for the time being because it has no ability to stop them from hating each other. China can only allow Wa to gain military superiority and then try to balance the forces of all sides through Wa.
Secondly, for historical reasons, China's influence over Myanmar is concentrated in the north and east of the country. China has little influence over Rakhine State in the western part of the country.
That's what I said genius. China is the sponsor of Junta. Stop wasting people's time.
 
Now is probably the best time to force the junta hand because they are losing control left and right. But the question is who should the rohinyas ally to arakan or the junta because u cant please both sides. The junta has also been very effective at playing divide and conquer by force conscription of rohinyas to fight against arakan army so now they are left in a very tough situation.
Do you think the Burmese military can develop nuclear weapons? In 2009 they were exposed of being co operating with North Korea regarding nukes. Even in 2022 there were suspicions of Russia and North Korea helping Myanmar with nuclear materials.

Moreover if not nuclear weapons they might be able to develop ballistic missiles I believe. North Korea have repeatedly been accused of selling missile technology to Myanmar.
 
That's what I said genius. China is the sponsor of Junta. Stop wasting people's time.
International relations are not simply for or against. If you can only analyze international relations using who is for whom or who is against whom, it means that your level of knowledge is still at a very low level. Please go back and learn more first.

The trigger for the current situation in Myanmar is the telecommunication fraud incident.

Before this incident, all the ethnic local forces in Myanmar were not strong enough to challenge the military government of Myanmar, and they could only maintain their presence within certain limits.
However, the Myanmar military government's serious miscalculation in the telecommunication fraud incident seriously infringed on China's interests. The Chinese government had to intervene.

As a result, we have seen the “Three Brothers Alliance” launching “Operation 1027.” ............ With the support of a very powerful and mysterious force, the Three Brothers Alliance gained a huge advantage in the battle against the Burmese military government ............ Other ethnic groups in Myanmar have taken advantage of the situation to launch attacks on the military junta ............

In fact, the Wa state is also deeply involved in telecommunication fraud. However, after receiving warnings from the Chinese government, the Wa actively cooperated with the Chinese government. Therefore, after Wa handed over some of its top leaders who were deeply involved in the telecommunication fraud, the Chinese government did not pursue Wa further.

Bai Yinglan, the central figure in the “1020 Massacre”, which is of the greatest concern to the Chinese people in the telecom fraud incident, is still under the protection of the Burmese military government. Until the Burmese military government hands her over to the Chinese government, the Chinese government will continue to allow attacks on the Burmese military government by local Burmese ethnic groups.
 
International relations are not simply for or against. If you can only analyze international relations using who is for whom or who is against whom, it means that your level of knowledge is still at a very low level. Please go back and learn more first.

The trigger for the current situation in Myanmar is the telecommunication fraud incident.

Before this incident, all the ethnic local forces in Myanmar were not strong enough to challenge the military government of Myanmar, and they could only maintain their presence within certain limits.
However, the Myanmar military government's serious miscalculation in the telecommunication fraud incident seriously infringed on China's interests. The Chinese government had to intervene.

As a result, we have seen the “Three Brothers Alliance” launching “Operation 1027.” ............ With the support of a very powerful and mysterious force, the Three Brothers Alliance gained a huge advantage in the battle against the Burmese military government ............ Other ethnic groups in Myanmar have taken advantage of the situation to launch attacks on the military junta ............

In fact, the Wa state is also deeply involved in telecommunication fraud. However, after receiving warnings from the Chinese government, the Wa actively cooperated with the Chinese government. Therefore, after Wa handed over some of its top leaders who were deeply involved in the telecommunication fraud, the Chinese government did not pursue Wa further.

Bai Yinglan, the central figure in the “1020 Massacre”, which is of the greatest concern to the Chinese people in the telecom fraud incident, is still under the protection of the Burmese military government. Until the Burmese military government hands her over to the Chinese government, the Chinese government will continue to allow attacks on the Burmese military government by local Burmese ethnic groups.
The question was who is supporting the Junta if it's not the west.
I get the nuances of it. I'm not blaming China for supporting them either but somehow this end up ruffling some weathers.
 
The question was who is supporting the Junta if it's not the west.
I get the nuances of it. I'm not blaming China for supporting them either but somehow this end up ruffling some weathers.
I'll give you an example:
First half of 2024. India imported $50.1 billion from China, up 8.4% year-on-year, as reported by the Global Trade Organization. China remains India's largest import supplier. India's trade deficit with China was $47.03 billion.
In the current climate of Sino-Indian relations, you certainly don't think that China will support India, or that India will support China.

So why would you simply assume that the Chinese government would support or oppose the Burmese junta?

Every country's government, when dealing with international relations, seeks to link and balance various forces, which we call “political games”. This relationship cannot be characterized by simple support or opposition. We can only say that one government opposes or supports a decision of another government, but it cannot be extended to mean that one government supports or opposes another government. This is the basic rule in the study of international relations.

The Burmese military junta has very friendly relations with many governments, and they also have a lot of contacts with the U.S. government. But this does not prevent the United States Government from imposing sanctions on them.
Similarly, the fact that the Chinese Government has taken “punitive” action against the Burmese military junta does not prevent the Chinese Government and the Burmese Government from maintaining normal relations.
 
I'll give you an example:
First half of 2024. India imported $50.1 billion from China, up 8.4% year-on-year, as reported by the Global Trade Organization. China remains India's largest import supplier. India's trade deficit with China was $47.03 billion.
In the current climate of Sino-Indian relations, you certainly don't think that China will support India, or that India will support China.

So why would you simply assume that the Chinese government would support or oppose the Burmese junta?

Every country's government, when dealing with international relations, seeks to link and balance various forces, which we call “political games”. This relationship cannot be characterized by simple support or opposition. We can only say that one government opposes or supports a decision of another government, but it cannot be extended to mean that one government supports or opposes another government. This is the basic rule in the study of international relations.

The Burmese military junta has very friendly relations with many governments, and they also have a lot of contacts with the U.S. government. But this does not prevent the United States Government from imposing sanctions on them.
Similarly, the fact that the Chinese Government has taken “punitive” action against the Burmese military junta does not prevent the Chinese Government and the Burmese Government from maintaining normal relations.
Unlike India or China. Junta is not a recognised government of MM. Chinese took action because it's affecting them. Not for the larger good of MM. Trying to project it as some show that China is against Junta is childish.
 
Unlike India or China. Junta is not a recognised government of MM. Chinese took action because it's affecting them. Not for the larger good of MM. Trying to project it as some show that China is against Junta is childish.
You need a historical perspective to understand China's position in Burma.

1, The main ethnic group in Burma is the Burmese, who are divided into two camps, the military junta and the MNDAA (Aung San Suu Kyi). These two camps are hostile to each other, but all their values are ultra-nationalist, so whoever comes to power will oppress the Rohingya.

The Burmese, who make up less than 50% of Myanmar's population, collectively have a strong sense of insecurity and they hate all ethnic minorities. So there are only nationalist parties within the Burmese community, no exceptions. But the ethnic warlords in the north are difficult to deal with, so any Burmese ruling party will channel the hatred of the people towards the Rohingya. This is what the Rohingya are facing.

The Rohingya problem stems from the deep-seated fear of the main body of the Burmese nation. No country can solve this problem, including China. The Chinese Government can only try to mediate, which is one of China's positions.

2, The ancestors of the Burmese are the White Wolf Qiang tribe in China. In the seventh century A.D., when the Chinese emperor expelled the White Wolf Qiang, the White Wolf Qiang fled from China's Yunnan Province to Burma, where they became the new dominant ethnic group in the country by overthrowing the local Mon regime. The armies of the various ethnic groups sent by the Chinese Emperor to hunt down the White Wolf Qiang were entrenched in the northern part of Burma, and eventually became local lords loyal to the rival Burmese in China. Eventually various Burmese lords, including the Burmese regime, became bannermen of the Chinese Emperor.

More than a thousand years have passed, and the Chinese imperial dynasty has been extremely influential in Burma as a result of the continued arrival of exiled Chinese to the country and the gradual sinicization of the culture here. But these lords fought each other and their hatred grew deeper and deeper. Successive Chinese governments only had the power to mobilize their armies, but not the power to defuse the hatred between them. Just as the United States is now powerless to defuse the hatred between Korea and Japan, Greece and Turkey.

The same goes for the current Chinese government. There are no forces in Burma that oppose China, but neither does China have the ability to control them completely. The force that China has been supporting is Wa, which also has the strongest military power in Burma. Secondly China supports the Three Brothers Alliance and MNDAA through Wa to attack the junta. The junta has angered China on issues such as telecom fraud (China views telecom fraudulent behavior in the Mandarin-speaking community as a provocation to China's core circle of interests) and China wants to punish them. The junta is trying to curry favor with China and they know that China has the power to completely destroy them. The junta's recent moves such as handing over the Deputy Minister of Defense to China and leasing Kyaukpyu to the Chinese military for 99 years are all efforts to calm China's anger. But the fact that the Three Brothers Alliance's attacks on the junta have still not stopped shows that the Chinese government's anger has not gone away.

So China's position in northern Burma is that China has the ability to mobilize these warlords to attack a certain power through various means, but China doesn't have the ability to stop them from attacking each other. And the hatred between them has been building up for thousands of years, and it's not going to dissipate that easily.

3, Myanmar's junta and MNDAA don't actually like the Chinese, but they are afraid of them. China's influence over Burma has been going on for thousands of years, and it's the one country that actually has the power to completely overthrow Burma. Any Burmese ruling party is bound to work hard to gain China's support and approval. Of course, the incident of the junta coercing the Chinese government to recognize the legitimacy of the junta by interrupting the B&R project is one of the main reasons for angering China.

China's position on the Burmese regime remains that it recognizes only the legitimacy of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and not the military government. Incidentally, the only major power that recognizes the junta is Russia, not China.



Map of the territorial distribution of Burma during the rule of the ancient Chinese lords:

3406a023e71119e4.webp
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Latest Posts

Back
Top