Operation Ghazab Lil Haq (Pakistan - Afghanistan War)

[r3alist]

I guess we need to have different perspective about the situation. Last night and this morning attack on Qatar Gas fields, Saudi and Kuwaiti oil refineries has changed everything.

What I see is Taliban are boasting and cyber-rattling to save face. They did little in terms of retaliation. They claimed Pakistan killed 400 people but there was no retaliation from Taliban and they agreed for a ceasefire without taking any revenge. It has dented their capability.

The reality of war is every side needs fuel to fight. If Afghanis are going to spend their fuel supplies on a border skirmish with Pakistan, then there's little left to run the country. And then Afghanis will rise against Taliban and will overthrow them.

TTA & TTP both understand the equation has changed. The funding is drying. They need to mollycoddle and pacify their own fighters and people to survive what comes next in few weeks which is food, medicine and fuel shortages.

TTP has already declared a ceasefire. What I see and expecting is, Afghanis are going to give written guarantees. Pakistan is going to accept that and by next month, the border crossings is going to open to ease up on aftereffects of fuel and food shortages. Everyone is going to make sort-term compromises to ride out the effects of Iran-USA war

Yes good point, I think written guarantees will be accepted, not left to paper they are written on.


Therefore anyone who understands the nature of this particular adversary has to understand no single one attempt no single campaign will ever do the job.

Untel Pakistan actually has ingress and leavers off influence within Afghanistan as part of an agreement, that in turn materializes into reality everything is just a tactical ceasefire.

If you suppose a second round in a few months it won't be so easy for Pakistan, the diplomatic landscape might have changed, the gulf Nations may not be neutral or supportive, I mean Saudi, China may pressure Pakistan further, and India may rearm the Taliban. The cover of the Iran and Israel conflict has to be maximized from a pa pov

 

[German Angst]

Just compare Araghchi who is doing amazing work and got unlimited aura to your defence minister Khawaja Asif who puts you into deeper shit every time he opens his mouth and you will see why your PR is bad.

 

[ziaulislam]

Yes good point, I think written guarantees will be accepted, not left to paper they are written on.


Therefore anyone who understands the nature of this particular adversary has to understand no single one attempt no single campaign will ever do the job.

Untel Pakistan actually has ingress and leavers off influence within Afghanistan as part of an agreement, that in turn materializes into reality everything is just a tactical ceasefire.

If you suppose a second round in a few months it won't be so easy for Pakistan, the diplomatic landscape might have changed, the gulf Nations may not be neutral or supportive, I mean Saudi, China may pressure Pakistan further, and India may rearm the Taliban. The cover of the Iran and Israel conflict has to be maximized from a pa pov

Pakistan has no leverage
Unless Pakistan arms a legitimate proxy group like thr western alliance there is absolutely zero reason for taliban to chnage because ttp is tta

 

[ARMalik]

@side-winder @Panzerkiel Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire partly due to worsening fuel situation? Jet fuel in particular. I know it's a sensitive question. But high intensity of aerial strikes would've consumed hugh amount of Jet fuel and considering extensive supply chain disruptions, high command decided to go with Sauid-Qatar-Turkiye request?

Unless Pakistan wants to dip into it's strategic reserves? I envy India in this regard, atleast they have russian oil to fall back to in this case

Geez, kindly do some basic research before making such assertions. 15 to 20% of Pakistan's daily Oil is LOCALLY produced which is over 85,000 BPD per day. So even when everyone else would not get fuel, the Military would continue to get Fuel.

 

[NationalistPKDude132]

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SAAR CEASEFIRE WITH TALIBAN SAAR

 

[r3alist]

Pakistan has no leverage
Unless Pakistan arms a legitimate proxy group like thr western alliance there is absolutely zero reason for taliban to chnage because ttp is tta

I suppose arming a counterproxy group is a legitimate suggestion
However that would have wider consequences, the basic overarching point remains there is no conventional or textbook way to deal with this.

 

[side-winder]

@side-winder @Panzerkiel Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire partly due to worsening fuel situation? Jet fuel in particular. I know it's a sensitive question. But high intensity of aerial strikes would've consumed hugh amount of Jet fuel and considering extensive supply chain disruptions, high command decided to go with Sauid-Qatar-Turkiye request?

Unless Pakistan wants to dip into it's strategic reserves? I envy India in this regard, atleast they have russian oil to fall back to in this case

Nope - that really was not the reason.

 

[Bratva]

Geez, kindly do some basic research before making such assertions. 15 to 20% of Pakistan's daily Oil is LOCALLY produced which is over 85,000 BPD per day. So even when everyone else would not get fuel, the Military would continue to get Fuel.

Good sir. A basic google search would have told you about the situation before you going all gung ho that whatever the oil production of Pakistan is, does it produce jet fuel in sufficient quantity as well or not.

https://www.samaa.tv/2087347672-pakistan-airlines-directed-to-operate-with-minimum-jet-fuel

Pakistan airlines directed to operate with minimum jet fuel​

By: Javed Asghar

March 14, 2026
5 days ago

Aviation sector faces financial woes | The Express Tribune

Aviation sector faces financial woes

tribune.com.pk

KARACHI:
Escalating hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the United States are now sending shockwaves through Pakistan's aviation sector, with commercial flights and pilot training facing unprecedented financial pressures.

Jet fuel prices have surged, and aviation gasoline for training planes has followed suit, hitting aspiring pilots the hardest. Industry experts warn that if the trend continued, small aircraft operation could come to a halt.

 

[r3alist]

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[ghazi52]

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[Goenitz]

Why in the world would you name an ethnicity when discussing the TTP at an international statement? Literally the worst thing you could ever do.

Also, as long as you are not hitting civilian targets, your response can be whatever you deem it to be.

I don't know why you're treating UN laws like they are some gospel to live by anyway, calm down, its made by some foreigners at a table. Putting yourself in imaginary chains at their whims is nothing less than mental slavery.

Please read carefully. I said that no one will come for the Afghans. The UN laws are not the gospel but a tool to arm-twist the weak, and Pak is not strong.
ISPR said that one Pakistani etc is more valuable than 1000 Afghans. Did he say TTP? Why did he generalise a nation or ethnicity?

You know, even China announced aid for Minab school's fallen.
If he were strategic, he could have said that by no means would Pakistan hit civilian targets and if that happens, we will investigate, apologise and compensate if it was our shortcoming.

Why shouldn't he? He has not crossed some line into accusing non-combatants, has he? Reading it carefully, it remains a statement congruent with universal values regarding the sanctity of civilian life.

As for the khwarij filth who strap bombs to themselves to target our security forces, schools and trains alike, such a statement is welcome and accurate, indeed somewhat generous in its ratios.

Then why didn't he say TTP, FKH, etc. Why did he say Afghans?

 

[Distant_Observer]

Please read carefully. I said that no one will come for the Afghans. The UN laws are not the gospel but a tool to arm-twist the weak, and Pak is not strong.
ISPR said that one Pakistani etc is more valuable than 1000 Afghans. Did he say TTP? Why did he generalise a nation or ethnicity?

You know, even China announced aid for Minab school's fallen.
If he were strategic, he could have said that by no means would Pakistan hit civilian targets and if that happens, we will investigate, apologise and compensate if it was our shortcoming.


Then why didn't he say TTP, FKH, etc. Why did he say Afghans?

Afghans because of their conduct have been deemed a threat to Pakistan that's why.

They are free to change that perception but it would take decades of trust building and good conduct which I doubt will ever happen.

1 Pakistani is worth more than the whole of Afghanistan.

I still don't understand why Pakistan has to fight with one hand tied to its back, constantly having to justify its military operations when the enemy does low blows through BLA and TTP.

 

[Goenitz]

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Afghanistan has long been a quagmire. Power has historically been decentralised, with different regions and groups asserting influence at different times. At some points, areas like Mazar-i-Sharif or Panjshir have aligned, while other regions like Herat or Kandahar have followed their own paths. Kabul has often been a focal point of authority, but not always a decisive one.

Like a pack of wolves (wetsern connotation), Afghans attack an outsider, and later everyone keeps fighting to be the Alpha to control the pack. Like wolves, they need spanking, herding and hierarchy to behave rationally. Unless they grow out of it to become a coherent society.

No one can control Afghanistan, even the Afghans themselves. The man is product of its environment. Afghanistan's geography dictates that it cannot be controlled by a center.
75% of the country is mountainous, and urban centers are far away from each other. Each center has its own ethnicity, group and militia.

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[IceCold]

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View attachment 186634

Amazing they have time to welcome this when their own oil and gas fields are taken out left,right and center.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

I guess we need to have different perspective about the situation. Last night and this morning attack on Qatar Gas fields, Saudi and Kuwaiti oil refineries has changed everything.

What I see is Taliban are boasting and cyber-rattling to save face. They did little in terms of retaliation. They claimed Pakistan killed 400 people but there was no retaliation from Taliban and they agreed for a ceasefire without taking any revenge. It has dented their capability.

The reality of war is every side needs fuel to fight. If Afghanis are going to spend their fuel supplies on a border skirmish with Pakistan, then there's little left to run the country. And then Afghanis will rise against Taliban and will overthrow them.

TTA & TTP both understand the equation has changed. The funding is drying. They need to mollycoddle and pacify their own fighters and people to survive what comes next in few weeks which is food, medicine and fuel shortages.

TTP has already declared a ceasefire. What I see and expecting is, Afghanis are going to give written guarantees. Pakistan is going to accept that and by next month, the border crossings are going to open to ease up on the aftereffects of fuel and food shortages. Everyone is going to make short-term compromises to ride out the effects of Iran-USA war

Everything makes sense when expressed in cents and pence....

Behind every physical war there's an "accounting" war.....