Operation True Promise II - dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israel

[Oscar]

Must flying more than 300 km away. 3 Khordad recorded 1 shoot down. Mehran system, if operative any can shoot down if fly near than 300 km.

It was flying closer than that but kept beyond a certain line - so they are monitoring all movements and keeping the distance accordingly

 

[Mehdipersian]

This is why Iran should have tools to threaten homeland US existence

Currently Iran has no weapon that threaten homeland US, only US interests in the region

This story is a mystery

Where the hell did the warheads go? Why no impact on the airbase?

If they hit empty land inside Iran, it would have been known not even hours after impacts

The warhead can't evaporate mid air into nowhere just like that
Also no air defense were activated (according to open source intel), no alarm, nothing, no explosion

Iran is a big country, it is possible that the missiles were intercepted or failed in a place far from the city

 

[UKBengali]

Iran is a big country, it is possible that the missiles were intercepted or failed in a place far from the city

Basically the entity screwed up back in April as it showed Iran that its ALBMs are a piece of crap.

They are not going to magically make them work within 6 months.

 

[Mehdipersian]

According to this photo, it is claimed that this time they want to launch 56 ballistic missiles at Iran.

I hope they will do this. I have been waiting for a year for a full attack with around 1000 ballistic missiles by Iran. The cities and infrastructure of Israel should not be left intact.

 

[lightning f57]

View attachment 74472
According to this photo, it is claimed that this time they want to launch 56 ballistic missiles at Iran.

I hope they will do this. I have been waiting for a year for a full attack with around 1000 ballistic missiles by Iran. The cities and infrastructure of Israel should not be left intact.

Retaliation has to be crippling to try and set precedent and a credible detterence.

 

[tsunset]

View attachment 74472
According to this photo, it is claimed that this time they want to launch 56 ballistic missiles at Iran.

I hope they will do this. I have been waiting for a year for a full attack with around 1000 ballistic missiles by Iran. The cities and infrastructure of Israel should not be left intact.

It doesn't matter if they use them or not, both results is in Israeli disadvantage

They lose in both situations

 

[SolarWarden]

Too much talking makes me believe Israel's retaliation will be tiny bit bigger than April's attack which Iran will absorb, likely won't be a clear video of attack, and Iran will declare all is good and it will be over. Israel will also likely attack with assets already inside Iran however we will likely never know what damage they cause.

 

[SolarWarden]

My observation:

Iran is smart:

1. Attacked Israel in April 2024 to test, find out and evaluate Israel's air defense system.

2. Attacked Israel in Oct 2024 to provide strong evidence that Israel's air defense system is weak and can be defeated.

3. The next attack (if it happens) will punish Israel and its allies, sufficiently.

Iran is smart because it launched its first attack and second attack on 2 targets and that can't be defended. Israel has maybe two batteries of David's Sling and Arrow defending a high value potential target, no way can 2-3 batteries fend off 180-200 ballistic missiles.

Now if Iran launched their 180-200 ballistic missiles at multiple targets like airbases, ports, naval ports, Mossad HQ, Army bases, etc etc etc.... then likelihood of a warhead not reaching its targets is highly likely and Iran knows this. Israel's BM defense is spread out throughout the country. A David Sling battery has 6-8 launchers per battery and a launcher carries 12 missiles. An Arrow 3 has 4-6 launchers with 6 missiles per launcher so you start to see the problem Iran has if it attacks many many targets inside Israel with 200 missiles.

So if Iran retaliates after Israel strikes, Iran is only going to be able to launch at 2 maybe 3 targets to try to overwhelm Israel defenses. Unfortunately for Iran the warheads that got through hitting the Israeli airbase didn't do anything to stop Israeli operations. Conventional BM's are not efficient like aircraft carrying 2000lb jdams and other PGM's.

 

[Mehdipersian]

Iran is smart because it launched its first attack and second attack on 2 targets and that can't be defended. Israel has maybe two batteries of David's Sling and Arrow defending a high value potential target, no way can 2-3 batteries fend off 180-200 ballistic missiles.

Now if Iran launched their 180-200 ballistic missiles at multiple targets like airbases, ports, naval ports, Mossad HQ, Army bases, etc etc etc.... then likelihood of a warhead not reaching its targets is highly likely and Iran knows this. Israel's BM defense is spread out throughout the country. A David Sling battery has 6-8 launchers per battery and a launcher carries 12 missiles. An Arrow 3 has 4-6 launchers with 6 missiles per launcher so you start to see the problem Iran has if it attacks many many targets inside Israel with 200 missiles.

So if Iran retaliates after Israel strikes, Iran is only going to be able to launch at 2 maybe 3 targets to try to overwhelm Israel defenses. Unfortunately for Iran the warheads that got through hitting the Israeli airbase didn't do anything to stop Israeli operations. Conventional BM's are not efficient like aircraft carrying 2000lb jdams and other PGM's.

You have no idea about the range of Israeli missile defenses

 

[vmro]

Iran is smart because it launched its first attack and second attack on 2 targets and that can't be defended.

Honestly, I can't get your post seriously to any attention, and after very first phrase, how can be most heavily protected airbase with pinnacle of israeli air defense and offense be considered as defenseless??? What are targets that could be real test for Iranian power projected impact???

 

[hasn2009]

Too much talking makes me believe Israel's retaliation will be tiny bit bigger than April's attack which Iran will absorb, likely won't be a clear video of attack, and Iran will declare all is good and it will be over. Israel will also likely attack with assets already inside Iran however we will likely never know what damage they cause.

Iran responds or doesn't respond, its a win in both scenario for Iran. Iran will be more than happy to absorb the hit and call it even while keep bleeding Israel using axis of resistance.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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Israeli clown show continues and the media eats it up

 

[Oscar]

What should be actually getting attention is NOT the Israeli attack plan but a black LO drone they have been using over Iran very successfully without detection according to US files.

 

[Immortals]

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Israeli clown show continues and the media eats it up

They are getting too close to US elections if it’s not in the next week the US might force them to hold off to after Nov 5th.

Or maybe Bibi wants to see if his BFF Trump gets elected, if he does he might scale up the attack since he knows Biden is now a lame duck for 3 months.

 

[Immortals]

What should be actually getting attention is NOT the Israeli attack plan but a black LO drone they have been using over Iran very successfully without detection according to US files.

There is no way that design has a lower RCS than RQ-170.

Treat any claims that drone has been flying over Iran undetected with a bucket of salt. Same as the Israeli F-35’s that routinely fly over Iran.

Psychological warfare.