I think this upgrade was much needed in the short term (next 5-10 years) and the package is consistent with our armed forces current doctrine of fighting an integrated defensive war close to our borders. Below are some of the implications I have been able to figure out after studying what all is included over the last two days (would appreciate the input of more informed members):
Effective and Efficient Rear Defense:
Link-16, upgraded IFF, improved EW and Cryptography, and the new OFP basically convert the F-16 fleet into an integrated rear defense formation increasing the envelope of shared awareness that will effectively cover much of Pakistan's airspace. It also makes the AIM-120C-5 more reliable and efficient. Subsequently, this increases the attrition penalty for any IAF intrusion (drone and aircraft strike packages) deeper into Pakistan’s airspace targeting rear strategic installations and AEWACS. This was a necessity to lower the operational burden on J-10Cs and JFT Block IIIs - providing them the freedom to continually operate on frontline air-denial missions without worrying much about any IAF breakthroughs. The overall operational effect here would be more aggressiveness from PAF on the frontline.
Effective Sea Denial:
The same upgrade package plus Harpoon, enables the PN and PAF integrated multi-domain operation over sea waters. PN’s ISR feeding the network through Link-16, and F-16s flying 150-250 km off the coast can now receive real-time targeting data and launch Harpoons from standoff distance of 120–200 km from IN surface assets. That alone forces the IN's surface assets to operate beyond Pakistan’s EEZ. The MiG-29K/R-77-1 wouldn't be a major threat now since at long range ISR reach and strike geometry would dominate the kill chain than range on A2A missiles. This, again, would increase the attrition penalty for any IN ambitions.
Note: OFP is the stepping stone for AESA down the line and if it eventually arrives, the entire defense strengthens further. Not only it will push the shared awareness of the network to a near-continous coverage over Pakistan's air space but would also lead to the better integration of our land and shore based defenses and missile systems by providing more accurate target coordinates via Link-16 -> IADS -> land based missile launchers (BM, CM). F-16s with AESA is more potent than MPA/UAV in this scenario given that it's more of an A2A threat to IN's aircraft than MPA/UAV.
Note 2: Though it remains to be seen, but further if AIM-120C-8 ever materializes (more of a political question now than technical), it will further add the offensive-defensive role and reach to fleet.
IMO, the operational relevancy and the service-life extension even under the current upgrade package buys time without much capability vacuum to induct more J-10Cs and J-35s. The V-standard upgrade for the entire fleet would have costed $ Billions given that majority of our F-16 fleet is MLU. Perhaps, in another 5 years Pakistan may try for the V upgrade on the Block 52+ while phasing out the MLUs and A/B with Chinese/Turkish systems. Given the resource and time constraints, I think this upgrade was a much needed genuine operational force multiplier as it extracts the most potential out of our current air fleet.
