High chance, that’s what I’ve been considering ever since the ACM visit.
$1-1.5bn PAF deal is a small amount compared to a $10bn+ deal with India for F-35s (which might not be possible due to S-400 but USA always has a variable attitude towards different countries so S-400 might actually not be an issue for India). Trump is a businessman. He is trying to get India onboard.
I won’t be surprised if India starts some sort of fake 2-4 year long talks with US for F-35s, halting the PAF F-16 deal and in the end slipping out of the talks without anything for the US. They’re notorious for this.
But if any F-16 deal goes down, We will see J-35s sooner than expected because the PAF has kept that option as a bargain chip.
PLAAF will gradually start replacing J-10B with J-35 so we can get further 2-4 squadrons if we want to. USA knows that we aren’t out of options. High chance is that any F-16 deal that goes through will eventually materialize.