PAF F-16 | Discussions

[rafale]

If the sale goes through without meddling, then further orders can be placed that are larger and given it will capability that Pakistan will possess at that point, it wont be introducing new capability that 'affects the military balance' etc..

Yea, I guess they will be pumping the congress now for the larger announcement later........

 

[Ak01]

because it would allow to bypass the long congressional FMS approval? I think they finally found a way.....but the modification is just 40 million USD and assuming all of it is for Pakistan, that's just 20 or so missiles......and which F-16s will fire them? don't they need the new APG 8X radars?

Post in thread 'PAF F-16 | Discussions'

Oct 6, 2025

hmmm...the deal is $2.5 B with a $41.6 M additive adjustment. Meaning, the PAF deal is worth around $41.6 M. If you look at the DSCA figures, the total run up of these C8 deals is around $2.5 M per missile. Let's say the total possible support cost is 100%, that's still $1.2 M per missile at flyaway, so the PAF deal would likely cover around 25-35 missiles right now.

as i understand it, this may not necessarily be an order, rather, a precursor to an order, especially due to the timelines for this contract.

Because, the initial contract, was for the following:

This contract...

• Ak01

• 

proper sale will req dsca approval in the end

 

[Yasser76]

Post in thread 'PAF F-16 | Discussions'

Oct 6, 2025

hmmm...the deal is $2.5 B with a $41.6 M additive adjustment. Meaning, the PAF deal is worth around $41.6 M. If you look at the DSCA figures, the total run up of these C8 deals is around $2.5 M per missile. Let's say the total possible support cost is 100%, that's still $1.2 M per missile at flyaway, so the PAF deal would likely cover around 25-35 missiles right now.

as i understand it, this may not necessarily be an order, rather, a precursor to an order, especially due to the timelines for this contract.

Because, the initial contract, was for the following:

This contract...

• Ak01

• 

proper sale will req dsca approval in the end

Yeah, no way a big deal can get under Congress, but with Pak stance on Minerals, Saudi, Gaza etc Path is being laid for a sympathetic Congress.

As you pointed out Pak, element of this current notification is small, it just shows we are getting all the prep work done and paid for for C8.

Question is now what after US is releasing this? What is on the cards? Options are many

Big C8 buy (last time we bought C5 we bought 500!)
V Upgrades to current fleet?
Additional brand new V fighters?
Release of AH-1Zs?
AIM-9X?
SeaRAM?


Certainly CAS's visit was not just for missiles and it looks like we are getting stuff in the pipeline now, Saudis can pretty much fund things.

My guess is next 6-12 months we may be seeing a massive rearmament programme with US kit funded by Saudis to help strengthen SMDA.

If all this happens along with J-10C/J-35/AEW/HQ-9 programmes, we are in an amazing spot, a very very strong spot. Pak would have the best of both worlds.

 

[Ak01]

Yeah, no way a big deal can get under Congress, but with Pak stance on Minerals, Saudi, Gaza etc Path is being laid for a sympathetic Congress.

As you pointed out Pak, element of this current notification is small, it just shows we are getting all the prep work done and paid for for C8.

Question is now what after US is releasing this? What is on the cards? Options are many

Big C8 buy (last time we bought C5 we bought 500!)

Id expect a decent buy yep, but otoh we have huge stocks of c5's. I wonder whether they can be refurb'ed and upgraded.

V Upgrades to current fleet?

Im confident yea

Additional brand new V fighters?

Not possible IMO- India produces airframe bits now. Perhaps EX us EDA's.

Release of AH-1Zs?

perhaps, it would put PAA in a better position since we only recieved one Z10ME.

AIM-9X?

for sure

SeaRAM?

Always available- deihl said theyd get the export permits

Certainly CAS's visit was not just for missiles and it looks like we are getting stuff in the pipeline now, Saudis can pretty much fund things.

Agreed, been saying this for a while, i expect a large, serious sale.

My guess is next 6-12 months we may be seeing a massive rearmament programme with US kit funded by Saudis to help strengthen SMDA.

If all this happens along with J-10C/J-35/AEW/HQ-9 programmes, we are in an amazing spot, a very very strong spot. Pak would have the best of both worlds.

Imo PAF's next steps are EW platforms -> Globaleye to replace erieyes, they're 20 years old now, probably power on for another decade or so.

 

[Yasser76]

Id expect a decent buy yep, but otoh we have huge stocks of c5's. I wonder whether they can be refurb'ed and upgraded.


Im confident yea


Not possible IMO- India produces airframe bits now. Perhaps EX us EDA's.

perhaps, it would put PAA in a better position since we only recieved one Z10ME.


for sure


Always available- deihl said theyd get the export permits


Agreed, been saying this for a while, i expect a large, serious sale.



Imo PAF's next steps are EW platforms -> Globaleye to replace erieyes, they're 20 years old now, probably power on for another decade or so.

Erieyes were probably one of the best value investments PAF ever made.

Cheap airframes, managed to certify our own overhaul and rebuild after Kamra attack, Link 17 integration performance in 2019 and May this year. No wonder we have so many.

Definate go for Globaleye or even just the AEW element of it.

 

[Flotilla]

So how many Vs might we see come to the PAF?

The question should be how many missiles would see China.

 

[waqarh]

F-16 aim120d

Pakistan’s F-16 Block 52 Fleet Eyes AIM-120D AMRAAM Edge - Defence Security Asia

Pakistan’s push to arm its F-16 Block 52 fleet with AIM-120D AMRAAM missiles could dramatically shift South Asia’s BVR air combat balance — raising new questions on India’s response and regional security.

defencesecurityasia.com

 

[puttputt]

Yeah, no way a big deal can get under Congress, but with Pak stance on Minerals, Saudi, Gaza etc Path is being laid for a sympathetic Congress.

As you pointed out Pak, element of this current notification is small, it just shows we are getting all the prep work done and paid for for C8.

Question is now what after US is releasing this? What is on the cards? Options are many

Big C8 buy (last time we bought C5 we bought 500!)
V Upgrades to current fleet?
Additional brand new V fighters?
Release of AH-1Zs?
AIM-9X?
SeaRAM?


Certainly CAS's visit was not just for missiles and it looks like we are getting stuff in the pipeline now, Saudis can pretty much fund things.

My guess is next 6-12 months we may be seeing a massive rearmament programme with US kit funded by Saudis to help strengthen SMDA.

If all this happens along with J-10C/J-35/AEW/HQ-9 programmes, we are in an amazing spot, a very very strong spot. Pak would have the best of both worlds.

Honestly, no one in Congress will get in the way of Trump over arms exports at this point. He can send ICE on their constituents. IMO, even the real prickly reps will pick their fights, and arms deals with Pakistan isn't one of those fights.

 

[Strawman]

Not possible IMO- India produces airframe bits now. Perhaps EX us EDA's.

They do not. It's still IAI. Israel has been handling major components like wings for the US production line since 2021.

 

[Strawman]

as i understand it, this may not necessarily be an order, rather, a precursor to an order, especially due to the timelines for this contract.

Because, the initial contract, was for the following:

This contract involves unclassified Foreign Military Sales to Bahrain, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom, which accounts for approximately 39% of the contract value. these were the pre modificaton countries

Then modification P00026 added the following states
Australia

• Czech Republic
• Denmark
• Germany
• Greece
• Israel
• Kuwait
• Lithuania
• Oman
• Pakistan
• Poland
• Portugal
• Romania
• Slovakia
• Sweden
• Taiwan
• Turkey

so that 41 million is split between an additional 17 states, what this extra 41m will be for is likely a precursor covering administrative costs for the time being, and or long lead items or initial support contracts.

I suspect, in a year or two down the line, this will all be readjusted to reflect the real contract.

Effectively, what i think this is, is that a PAF order is 'in the system', the initial costings etc are being paid, admin work is being done and it will be paid for/numbers decided once it progresses further and the production line clears up

That's precisely what it is. Just to add, $27M of the $41M are being obligated right now for this lot ($9M FMS + $18M DOD). The rest follows later as the lot moves forward.

 

[FuturePAF]

Erieyes were probably one of the best value investments PAF ever made.

Cheap airframes, managed to certify our own overhaul and rebuild after Kamra attack, Link 17 integration performance in 2019 and May this year. No wonder we have so many.

Definate go for Globaleye or even just the AEW element of it.

If the PAF goes for the GlobalEye, hopefully it’s on a larger platform, to improve the endurance as well as the onboard processing and comms node role it can play. Considering the SAM threat, a AWACS with at least a 650 km radar range would be necessary to safely operate. A larger platform could also carry towed or expendable UAV decoys like MALD-J to decrease the threat of being hit by long range enemy missile fire.

Btw, if this is best time for Pakistan to buy as much COIN gear it needs; many EDA helos and MRAPs, for literally as low as a fifth to a tenth of their price when new. If Pakistan gets the AH-1Z, this maybe the best time to get dozens (hopefully close to 100) of Blackhawks/Seahawks; great for high altitude COIN operations in the western provinces and could be used on board naval vessels; great interoperability with the US, Saudi and western militaries. A great time to pick up Chinooks, as well as thousands of MRAPS, such as the Maxxpro, which Pakistan already operates. If the Saudis are helping with the finances, a 1000 M-ATVs would really go a long way to a well equipped counter terrorism force with mobility but high level protection.

The goal with any procurement, IMHO, should be to package all the needs in one big beautiful package and get it procured ASAP, when the times are good. Things can turn sour in a few years so there is no time to waste.

 

[Oscar]

Id expect a decent buy yep, but otoh we have huge stocks of c5's. I wonder whether they can be refurb'ed and upgraded.


Im confident yea


Not possible IMO- India produces airframe bits now. Perhaps EX us EDA's.

perhaps, it would put PAA in a better position since we only recieved one Z10ME.


for sure


Always available- deihl said theyd get the export permits


Agreed, been saying this for a while, i expect a large, serious sale.



Imo PAF's next steps are EW platforms -> Globaleye to replace erieyes, they're 20 years old now, probably power on for another decade or so.

New build V's are likely - the number being eyed is 36(org req) for two sq of high end.
Maybe Back and forth in play regarding future of lowest airframe use MLUs - potentially to be kept or relegated to OCU or second line duties.

There will be a timeframe when PAF fleet will be vulnerable from a no's standpoint as it was during upgrade cycle for MLUs.

 

[Oscar]

If the PAF goes for the GlobalEye, hopefully it’s on a larger platform, to improve the endurance as well as the onboard processing and comms node role it can play. Considering the SAM threat, a AWACS with at least a 650 km radar range would be necessary to safely operate. A larger platform could also carry towed or expendable UAV decoys like MALD-J to decrease the threat of being hit by long range enemy missile fire.

Depends on the Saab airframe life left. Technically Globaleye has enough commonality to be a depot level upgrade sans the Ground monitoring component upgrade.

Otherwise the PAF has is building up experience with the Global 6000 regardless.
Utopian world - PAF is operating Global 6000 Havasoj and Global 6000 Globaleyes. Talk about commonality.

 

[FuturePAF]

But all deliveries to be completed by 2030...

One has to wonder where we stand in the queue.

And what the political landscape will be then.

 

[FuturePAF]

New build V's are likely - the number being eyed is 36(org req) for two sq of high end.
Maybe Back and forth in play regarding future of lowest airframe use MLUs - potentially to be kept or relegated to OCU or second line duties.

There will be a timeframe when PAF fleet will be vulnerable from a no's standpoint as it was during upgrade cycle for MLUs.

Any chance the PAF could pick up C/D models from former users, for a V upgrade on top of these new build V’s; swap out our oldest birds for younger ones to keep F-16 squadrons numbers at least to 4?