PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

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RajaBaja said:
Let's avoid fake conspiracy theories since it's obvious our members like go to post anything as an expert without having a background.

Let's say, we are buying F-16's in today's price (I am using 2024's numbers that I know of 10-20% deviation possible). This below is just to make a logical point on how it actually works.

- Base line model: $ 70 million
- Add cost of customization such as IRIS-T, custom ejections seats (PAF uses MB 0-0), Sniper PODs, DRM modules, Customization to Defensive / Offensive equipment, Radar and Avionics upgrades.
- Weapons customization (any weapon that the buying airforce wants to purchase and integrate in addition to the above)
- Maintenance package
- Sustainment package
- Pilot training cost
- Any simulated training equipment cost for simulated cockpit training, etc.
Let's EXCLUDE weapons cost for this example for a critical point.
Total Cost Per Unit: Add ALL costs from above. It becomes the "Total lifecycle cost" per jet. It usually is between $ 100-130 million depending on selected options.

- Now we paid ONLY the baseline price of the J-10C at $ 40 million a piece. Meaning all the extra high tech equipment, support, training was included. If added separately, this equipment would've cost us another $ 15-20 million a piece!

That same equipment if in an F-16 block 72, would cost us near $ 100-120 million plus. Use your common sense to see the fat discount. India paid near $ 150 per Rafale! One has to be blind to ignore how big of a deal we've received from the Chinese.

Secondly, we bought 240 PL-15's separately right in April. Each missile is around $2+ million per piece. They reduced around .8-1 million per piece and we paid ONLY $ 210 million for 240 PL-15's. That's $ 1.14 million a piece, nearly 50% discount!

What more do we expect from the Chinese? They've cooperated with us beyond our ask, here we are insulting them with fake accusations of bribe.

This is the same issue I'm running on this and a few other threads. A person with knowledge on this process, wouldn't have written above post. I can only wish people will educate themselves first on the topic before making fake "expert" opinions.



Tell me about it. India paid near $ 150 million a jet with lower technology base Rafales. I think it's shameful to even have this argument. China has done for Pakistan defense that no other nation could do. It's stood us on our feet independent of any sanctions and that also, for half the cost.
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What's the point of listing the price of the bare airframe unless the you want to intentionally mislead, You should get a award for pulling Numbers out of a place where the sun doesn't shine.
 
RajaBaja said:
Michael - I know all about Dynamic manufacturing (you guys call it pulse manufacturing). Even Chocolate manufacturers like Kitkat and Sneakers use programmed Machines (Robotics) now. It's the new standard of manufacturing. Japan is nearly ALL Robotics manufacturing. TSMC has so far the world's most modern robotic chip manufacturing unit I've seen and China is coming close now. Malaysia has been operating Robotic manufacturing way before China did. Intel Corp and a few others put their first robotic manufacturing plants around 1995's! Vietnam and Philippines have them also for some Western companies.

So the point is, if Philippines, Malayia, Vietnam and Taiwan can have advanced manufacturing, Pakistan can too in the future.

We have the talent and education and 5th largest population who is tech savvy. We need to build our industry and need training and equipment for it and may be a couple of joint projects to gain experience. You can't just shun an argument because you compare everything to "today's China".

Where was China in advance manufacturing 40 years ago? While Japan and Malayia were already doing it? China was learning, building, adopting right? Us Pakistanis want to learn, build and adopt also so we can be self sufficient in key weapons manufacturing for our country. This model is called "Capability Maturity Model".

My post isn't fantasy, it's what our nation needs in terms of a working industry to sustain ourselves without other nation's involvement for key defense infrastructure. In a few years, more details will come out regarding our efforts towards acquiring and building 5th gen tech.

Regards,
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I think you're getting the wrong message, what Michael was trying to say is that manufacture scale is the key. Those production line are extremely expensive investment, they only makes financial sense if you're producing very large lot size, ie a new plane roll off the line every three days continuously for years on ends. If you don't reach that production tempo your expensive production line is just burning money.

Of course Pakistan can do it just like everyone else, but it will just be a huge financial burden for Pakistan.

IMO, there're a couple of things Pakistan can do:

1, As Michael mentioned, try to increase domestic production percentage for the JF-17B3.
2, Try to domestically manufacture sub components that is needed for maintenance for J-10C.
3, If Pakistan is very ambitious on the engine sector, try to acquire the ability for WS-10 maintenance in house, maybe even able to produce some parts of the engine.

In short, try to tackle the components first. Assembly line doesn't makes sense if you're importing all the components from China, assembly cost is just a small percentage of overall cost.
 
Toxic said:
No it doesn't, the cost of PAFs J-10Cs was 80mil+, the J-10C is far Cheaper then the Rafale but not that cheap.
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As per Quwa, the total value of the PAF J-10CE contract was $1.525 billion USD for 20 aircraft, 10 spare WS-10B turbofan engines, and 240 PL-15E BVRAAMs.

~$76million per unit (procurement cost, entire package included)
~$45million to ~$55million per unit (flyaway cost, just the airframe + engine + avionics, ready to fly)

Edit- Here is that article btw
 
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RajaBaja said:
The concept being presented was for Pakistan to seek partnership with China on one of it's 5th gen stealth drones it presented in the recent parade. Or, some custom variant of those stealthy UCAVS for Pakistan, in a manned and unmanned configuration.
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Cannot be developed into a manned version. Total redesign. Just like a supersonic bomber like Tu-160 or B-1B cannot be developed into a passenger commercial airliner. This is simply impossible.

Getting export versions of the unmanned UADF is possible though. Lots of other conditions to consider though. But manned. It's not as simple as sticking a cockpit in. What about control systems, all different to the unmanned. Won't need lots of stuff but will need even more stuff which means more volume and larger aircraft, heavier aircraft. Life support systems, seat, displays, controls. This means it'll become larger and heavier, so engines need to be twin engine that means redesign all internals and balance of aircraft. Basically easier to do a total redesign. Single engine 5th gen doesn't work unless you have F135 or WS-15 level engine for the aircraft. Even then, the aircraft will be small to medium like F-35 and will have less payload than even the WS-10 powered UADF. Lower range too as manned means much heavier and volumous for the same everything else.



RajaBaja said:
For that, our engineers will be trained in China, JF-17's manufacturing line will be re-configured to produce this new 5th gen design and we will start to move towards a 5th gen single engine stealthy platform, both manned and unmanned. Since it will happen with a joint project, we can get initial needed numbers built for Pakistan also and then build the rest ourselves. This way, we will start to move towards the future.
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There is no such dream of new 5th gen fighter. It takes 15 years or so for a very competent and well funded large nation to develop a 5th gen. Producing it at scale is even harder. Europe cannot do it alone and team up to do it and even then they have only vapor and ppt slides. Lots of big talk though I'll give them that. About the only thing they're good at. US and China both know how monumental this task is. Russia barely has a handful of Su-57s in operation. Turkey has a prototype but no engine yet and sub-systems experience is based on sub-contracting for F-16. I know the tendency is to assume Turkey is awesome at everything but let them complete KAAN first.

RajaBaja said:
While this is going on, we will have J-35's may be 40, J-10C's in more numbers and the entire fleet of JF-17's upgraded to block III radars and PL-15 capability. But the real focus is to take the airforce into the future.
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I dunno about PAF having J-35s when India has no Su-57. China has no desire to needlessly piss off India. As long as India can be deterred from military action on Pakistan that achieves the objective. Pakistan and China's goal for Pakistan should be to develop its economy, make more people highly educated and wealthier. Defend itself at the highest end with nukes, defend against cruise missile, ballistic missile and drone attacks with the ability to hit back as hard. Defend against IAF with PAF. Defend against IN with asymmetric war and defend against Indian Army with artillery and PAF.

PAF just needs more J-10CE and ideally get China to integrate PL-17 for J-10CE. I suspect China has already done that. It's just an invisible small card up its sleeve.
 
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Toxic said:
No it doesn't, the cost of PAFs J-10Cs was 80mil+, the J-10C is far Cheaper then the Rafale but not that cheap.
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As per this 2023 tweet, the J-10C was bought at an average cost of $60 million per unit. But later, I learned that the final negotiated price may have been less than that. Come to think of it, even a JF-17 Block-III costs around $35 million a unit.
 
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Toxic said:
What's the point of listing the price of the bare airframe unless the you want to intentionally mislead, You should get a award for pulling Numbers out of a place where the sun doesn't shine.
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Baseline and "bare airframe" are two different things. There is no such thing as a "bare airframe". It's not candy from a store.

You went so far to accuse a strategic partner for paying bribes in J-10C's case (China), quoted false price of the jet! And now going towards "insult mode" when questions are asked.....? You posted something, either prove it or debate with logic. I don't understand why you people start to get personal.

Toxic said:
No it doesn't, the cost of PAFs J-10Cs was 80mil+, the J-10C is far Cheaper then the Rafale but not that cheap.
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It seems as the deal was negotiated by you and a few of your "homies" here. Prove the 80 million dollars price please?
 
RajaBaja said:
Baseline and "bare airframe" are two different things. There is no such thing as a "bare airframe". It's not candy from a store.

You went so far to accuse a strategic partner for paying bribes in J-10C's case (China), quoted false price of the jet! And now going towards "insult mode" when questions are asked.....? You posted something, either prove it or debate with logic. I don't understand why you people start to get personal.



It seems as the deal was negotiated by you and a few of your "homies" here. Prove the 80 million dollars price please?
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Bro, you guys are arguing for no reason over its price, when in fact Quwa has a whole article on the J-10CE (I'm quite sure you must have read it).

According to leaked documents, the total value of the PAF J-10CE contract was $1.525 billion USD for 20 aircraft, 10 spare WS-10B turbofan engines, and 240 PL-15E LRAAMs.

Estimates...
~$75million per unit (procurement cost, entire package included)
~$45million to ~$55million per unit (flyaway cost, just the airframe + engine + avionics, ready to fly)
 
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