PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[Quwa]

Just my opinion, but I think they would still have acquired it, if for nothing else then as a stop gap to counter Rafale. Events of 2019 would have been another motivation. PAF also could not realistically expect all 40 J-35A to be delivered and/or operationalized in 2026 (I'll be surprised but also ecstatic if that happens). That's a gaping hole of four years or more in Pakistan's airpower against Modi's increasingly belligerent and Hindutvatized India equipped with Rafale that it sees as a "demigod." Also consider that PAF is believed to be acquiring more J-10Cs despite orders for J-35A.

You know...one factor that we never considered, but it might be a slight possibility, is that the PAF leased the J-10CEs. The PAF never leased fighters before, but there had been an option to do so with ex-RAF/Italian Typhoon T1s.

If you're up against an emergency issue, like another IAF ingression, then perhaps you might consider leasing as a stopgap until the optimal and scalable solutions (J-35A and JF-17 PFX, respectively) can be acquired?

However, I don't think AVIC has a protocol for leasing.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

 

[Michael]

Dear now you are provoking people to go in wrong direction (in your last line) ........

I certainly know what that means ...... I'm just a light touch on what is hidden deep inside people's hearts.

If we think about this seriously, it is also the reason why it is very difficult for Pakistan to manufacture any weapon system completely independently.
Fortunately, Pakistan's hypothetical enemies are in a completely similar situation.

 

[blueboy7862]

Three Pakistan Air Force J-10C Dragons breaking formation:
View attachment 88980

Start of a new era. They will serve for at least two decades now.

 

[SABRE]

You know...one factor that we never considered, but it might be a slight possibility, is that the PAF leased the J-10CEs. The PAF never leased fighters before, but there had been an option to do so with ex-RAF/Italian Typhoon T1s.

If you're up against an emergency issue, like another IAF ingression, then perhaps you might consider leasing as a stopgap until the optimal and scalable solutions (J-35A and JF-17 PFX, respectively) can be acquired?

However, I don't think AVIC has a protocol for leasing.

Question that comes to mind is if the lease is 'operating lease' where lessor would retain ownership, or is it 'finance lease' where lessee would possibly acquire full ownership of assets after the payment of final installment?

In the case of ex-RAF/AM Typhoons I think both lease types might be possible as its a transaction between national institutions where one institution (RAF/AM) has the surplus asset available to divert. Why PAF did not to acquire these Typhoons is not in my knowledge, but we cannot rule out the leasing conditions and political limitations. Seeing how Germany dealt its hand on Typhoon exports to Turkeye I am glad we did not acquire these aircraft. Given Europe's proclivity towards the economically well off India we and willing to turn blind eye to its misdeeds - much as in the case of Israel - we might have ended up with yet another saga similar to F-16 embargo.

I'll hold my further opinions on Typhoons for a while due to limited knowledge on what actually happened. Perhaps, you have more knowledge on why Typhoons and would like to expand discussion(?).

In the case of PAF-AVIC transaction operating lease cannot possibly be an option since AVIC isn't operating J-10 and therefore cannot withdraw x-number of jets from its inventory [non-existent] to lease them to PAF. It would be or must be finance lease (if there is leasing involved). For all practical purposes, J-10Cs are permanent or long-term feature in PAF now and - to me - that is what matters.

 

[Yasser76]

Generally the PAF doesn't induct a new fighter platform unless it plans for at least 80-90 units of that type.

Besides aircraft given to it on US aid (F-104, B-57), which the PAF would've gotten more of if not for the 1965 War, every type it had bought had a long-term buy plan: Mirage III/5, F-6, F-7, F-16, and JF-17.

The J-10CE is no different, nor would the J-35 be any different.

That is the general rule of thumb, but there have been instances of PAF having an "interim" type in smaller numbers like the A-5 and the H-5 Bomber.

Could be we just decided on 36 J-10Cs to counter the Rafale and keep us in AESA/PL-15s till the J-35s arrive?

Once J-35s start getting delivered we need to go all out on it

 

[Corax]

I think the PAF will consider drawing down the very early Block 15 Vipers from about 2030 or so, and perhaps have the J-10C replace these. The Block 52s will be around for a while longer. From 2030 onwards the fleet will probably comprise only JF-17, J-10, and Vipers. For once, the PAF is spoilt for choice in terms of partners and suppliers in the form of the Turkish KAAN and the J-35A, as well as its own cryptic plans in the guise of "JFX", but a lot of this will depend on the economy and not having donkeys as leaders.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

The US would never sell F-16V to Pakistan.

The US policymakers believe in "never say never"....

 

[Ali_Baba]

The US policymakers believe in "never say never"....

Given the choices available to Pakistan that include potentially more advanced variants of the J10CE(maybe one day, a 'D' model ?), and on the horizon J-35's and Kaa'ns I do think it is time to bring the F16 saga to a close. If Pakistan really wants to upgrade its F16s, it can look at ÖZGÜR . If the Americans "do eventually" agree to F16Vs as you suggest, then surely they cant really stick their nose up at ÖZGÜR for the PAF.

Personally I think they should save the pennies and go for Kaan, with OZGUR upgrades for F16s.

 

[Yasser76]

Given the choices available to Pakistan that include potentially more advanced variants of the J10CE(maybe one day, a 'D' model ?), and on the horizon J-35's and Kaa'ns I do think it is time to bring the F16 saga to a close. If Pakistan really wants to upgrade its F16s, it can look at ÖZGÜR . If the Americans "do eventually" agree to F16Vs as you suggest, then surely they cant really stick their nose up at ÖZGÜR for the PAF.

Personally I think they should save the pennies and go for Kaan, with OZGUR upgrades for F16s.

Agreed, only issue is that with the end of the F-16 saga, we not only retire a jet but pretty much a relationship with the USAF too.

In the past our attendence at NATO joint exercises and interoperability with many Western AFs was pretty much dependent on the F-16. In fact because of this exposure China values raining with the PAF.

I agree F-16 needs to be retired but are we really prepared for the PAF to have no major western modern weapon system for the first time in it's history?

 

[Ali_Baba]

Agreed, only issue is that with the end of the F-16 saga, we not only retire a jet but pretty much a relationship with the USAF too.

In the past our attendence at NATO joint exercises and interoperability with many Western AFs was pretty much dependent on the F-16. In fact because of this exposure China values raining with the PAF.

I agree F-16 needs to be retired but are we really prepared for the PAF to have no major western modern weapon system for the first time in it's history?

The KAAN would be that bridge to western airforces as Turkey is a NATO member?

That is why I do think PAF will go for both KAAN and J35.

 

[Yasser76]

The KAAN would be that bridge to western airforces as Turkey is a NATO member?

That is why I do think PAF will go for both KAAN and J35.

Yes, in that case KAAN becomes very important for us....

 

[Reichmarshal]

The only reason why PAF was interested in buying new F 16 V was that the americans owed money to Pakistan amounting to around $ 10 billion from CFT.
obama admin had laid down the condition they r not willing to pay cash but Pakistan can buy military hardware from the u.s for that amount, but the govt. wanted cash n due to this deadlock precious time was wasted....so in came trump admin, n they were like "What money"!! plus they said u can buy whatever u want under non-nato allies statutes as long as u pay for it from ur own pocket.
So because of the over-smartness of our Gens. we not only lost 10 b $ but also didn't get the f16 n at the same time lost the cobras as well.

PAF is was/is not willing to buy any jets from the u.s with its own money. Especially now when they are spoilt for choice with 5th-generation AC......but wont mind if they come from u.s aid
guess they have learnt their lesson?

 

[Reichmarshal]

Having said the above, PAF now has multiple options for AC a gen. ahead of the f16. The u.s stands to lose PAF completely n u.s policymakers cant have that.
So we might see LM backed by u.s govt. come up with an offer for PAF to buy new 16V (at least 18 units as PAF has congressional approval to buy 18 brand new F 16) from the CFT funds plus offer upgradtion of the rest of the fleet to 52 or V standard.

at the same time the release of the cobras as PAA will be receiving its first batch of attack heles from china very soon.

simply put u.s will never let its leverage slip away in Pakistan.

 

[Goku-Kun]

Let's review some public timelines:
2017. the J-10C made its first official appearance in the PLA's 90th anniversary parade. It is a symbol that the PLAAF has been officially inducted.
2019. the J-10CE makes its first public appearance at the Dubai Airshow.
June 25, 2021. China and Pakistan sign the J-10CE procurement contract.
March 11, 2022. the PAF holds a receiving ceremony for the first batch of six J-10CEs.
March 23, 2022: PAF's J-10CEs are officially unveiled at Pakistan's National Day parade.

Based on China-Pakistan relations, PAF knew and visited to inspect the J-10C certainly earlier than 2017. However, PAF did not sign the procurement contract until 2021. China started delivering the first batch of J-10CE 8 months after signing the contract. if India's purchase of Rafale was not a factor, I am sure, this would have been pushed back.

Z-10 helicopter gunships are another case in point. Pakistan might have continued to hesitate for a long time if there were no external factors. The ------Z-21 has already been born.

PAF publicly announced that it would buy the J-35A even before it officially appeared. (Which represents how much he likes it.) ------ But now, that “leaf” has appeared.

Let me give you an example, Iran recently has approached Pakistan for JF-17 Thunder jets but before it Iran went to China to acquire J-10C but the deal was not finalized as Iran wanted to pay the cost in crude oil which reportedly China disagreed with so the point is that Pakistan is no different than Iran in terms of paying money for the jets but since China considers Pakistan as a strategic ally so they provided us these J-10Cs on soft loans which option they didn't offered to Iran so that speaks everything.