PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[RajaBaja]

You are right that no one can predict what's going to happen but it is my understanding that Americans are not going to a hot war against China even if China today takes over Taiwan. Just 13 American marines dead at the Kabul Airport in 2021 was a huge impact; this country has no appetite for wars, not even for Israel when you see that Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Tayler Greene, who are uber MAGA, are questioning Israel, on top of a significant liberals in the Democratic Party.
Forget about foreign wars like the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In fact, if a NY Times article of a few months ago is to be trusted, Americans, under Trump, are seriously thinking about 'carving up' the world per the old ways into three 'spheres of influence' between America, Russia and China. And that's excellent for Pakistan!! That's why I am going to be carefully watching Trump's upcoming visit to China (in September?) with great interest.

Did Ukraine know Russia would attack her a year before? Did Pakistan know until end of March, 2025 that India would attack it? Did Iran until April, 2025 know Israel will attack it?

We didn't know, but we were preparing for it. That's WHY we have 7-0!! What makes you think, China, the SECOND super power of the world, who is MUCH behind in weapons compared to it's rival, the US and +5 other countries, will not want to establish a credible deterrence to protect itself?

The introduction of pulse manufacturing is a fact, J-20's are being produces over 100 a year. That's 8-10 jets per month. Obviously there is a need.

 

[Meengla]

Did Ukraine know Russia would attack her a year before? Did Pakistan know until end of March, 2025 that India would attack it? Did Iran until April, 2025 know Israel will attack it?

We didn't know, but we were preparing for it. That's WHY we have 7-0!! What makes you think, China, the SECOND super power of the world, who is MUCH behind in weapons compared to it's rival, the US and +5 other countries, will not want to establish a credible deterrence to protect itself?

The introduction of pulse manufacturing is a fact, J-20's are being produces over 100 a year. That's 8-10 jets per month. Obviously there is a need.

You are entitled to your opinion and I am to mine: I don't see a hot war between America and China for at least next several years; in fact, I see another Superpower 'understanding' between the two much like what existed during the Cold War. I live here and lived here for most of my life and deeply 'embedded' here; and I have my reasons to come to such conclusions. But, of course, no one can predict what's going to happen.

 

[Hendarto]

Getting intelligence from the Air show is gross neglect and a dereliction of duty. That is what happened if you believe in your Kool-Aid

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[Assault Rifle]

Getting intelligence from the Air show is gross neglect and a dereliction of duty. That is what happened if you believe in your Kool-Aid

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IAF did a minor mistake by relying on the analysis of defence experts like Alpha Defense, The Legate and Defence Matrix.
But it was quickly rectified by May 9th

 

[Lion]

IAF did a minor mistake by relying on the analysis of defence experts like Alpha Defense, The Legate and Defence Matrix.
But it was quickly rectified by May 9th

Calling those three clowns defense “experts” and then claiming that the IAF relied on them in any capacity is basically all one needs to know about the Indian military and it’s average supporters understanding of defense and modern defense technology.

 

[Metal 0-1]

IAF did a minor mistake by relying on the analysis of defence experts like Alpha Defense, The Legate and Defence Matrix.
But it was quickly rectified by May 9th

Durgesh Matrix? Defence Expert?

 

[Mrc]

Is ka to apna aesa aligned nahi

 

[Scorpio]

Whatever mistakes or miscalculation they have done in may conflict...

India's is planning something.. that's way they have started emergency funding in defense purchase..

They might be planning some other misadventures before elections

 

[OG Pakhtun.]

Courtesy of PAF.

 

[RealNapster]

That is what the Chinese members @Michael @Shanlung @nang2 @chinasun are trying to explain to us again and again. China has a LOT of catching up to do. China's own needs are so massive that for the next ten years at the least, the Chinese manufacturing is going to be busy with producing weapons ONLY for their needs.

They will offer some weapons for foreign buyers but not so much that they will risk their internal orders to be delayed.

Take an example, whether one likes it or not, China is now in a direct competition with the US. There may even be a war on Taiwan between the two. So can China go to war with less military, top end aircrafts, and weapon systems than the US? No, it will lose. So that's their current industry focus.

Just imagine, US air force along has 2500+ combat jets, US Navy also has 3700 aircraft our of which half should be combat jets, then you have US marines also with about 400-500 combat jets of various kind. So China is facing a super power with over 5000 combat jets. Additionally, there are around 5000+ RESERVES. So China has to estimate and war game this massive number. Of course, not all of these will be in a fight but what if a real war starts and goes long term?

So in my opinion, China needs around 4000 combat jets out of which, at least 2000+ will be 5th gen. China still can't beat the US in numbers and reserves because the US has been building reserves since 1980's for a war with Russia. But from what I am seeing is, China wants to outpace the older inventory of US systems by advance TECH. That's why we see J-20, J-35, J-36 and J-50 being in pipes. China is building a future airforce and navy. While the US has a large number of older platforms compared to what China is building.

@Yasser76 @Meengla @pwfi @PAKISTANFOREVER @corven @Pakistan Space Agency @LX1111 your input on above?

To be fair, even china with it's industrial might can not afford an air force of 4000+ fighter jets all 5th Generation + above. It will still require 4.5+/4.5++ generation jets. I don't see China retiring J-10C, J-11, or J-16 anytime soon. As pointed out by @Michael

Expect more like this, around 1000-1500 4.5++ generation jets,, 1500-2000 5Gs, and 500-1000 6th generation jets. All by 2045. Maybe after that China start retiring the 4.5/4.5++ fighters. By that time I don't think numbers will mean anything. The capabilities will be all that matters by then.

 

[RajaBaja]

To be fair, even china with it's industrial might can not afford an air force of 4000+ fighter jets all 5th Generation + above. It will still require 4.5+/4.5++ generation jets. I don't see China retiring J-10C, J-11, or J-16 anytime soon. As pointed out by @Michael

Expect more like this, around 1000-1500 4.5++ generation jets,, 1500-2000 5Gs, and 500-1000 6th generation jets. All by 2045. Maybe after that China start retiring the 4.5/4.5++ fighters. By that time I don't think numbers will mean anything. The capabilities will be all that matters by then.

I agree. Chins will have a mix of 4.5 and 5th gen. May be around 2000 5th gen stealth and rest 4.5 gens on active duty. But they do need a couple thousand 5th and 6th gen at the least to offset such a large inventory of US combat aircraft. They can't build an equal number but with more advance tech, they can offset US 4.5 gen fleet.

China also needs to start thinking about reserves. The US keeps near 5000 4th and 4.5 gen, semi new, half life used and retired aircraft for a prolonged WWIII scenario in the "bone yard" where Pakistani F-16's are also staying from 1990's embargo. These are to be used after losses of front line assets. So China needs to figure out a strategy to offset losses also.

US just announced it deployed long range hypersonic missiles in Australia. Who is the target? China. These are deployed there to not allow the Chinese to even get to the second Island chain and get bogged down around the first island chain. So China needs a large military build up pending from all directions. Jets happen to be the most critical along with air defenses.

 

[RealNapster]

I agree. Chins will have a mix of 4.5 and 5th gen. May be around 2000 5th gen stealth and rest 4.5 gens on active duty. But they do need a couple thousand 5th and 6th gen at the least to offset such a large inventory of US combat aircraft. They can't build an equal number but with more advance tech, they can offset US 4.5 gen fleet.

China also needs to start thinking about reserves. The US keeps near 5000 4th and 4.5 gen, semi new, half life used and retired aircraft for a prolonged WWIII scenario in the "bone yard" where Pakistani F-16's are also staying from 1990's embargo. These are to be used after losses of front line assets. So China needs to figure out a strategy to offset losses also.

Think of it this way, USN can only bring as many fighter jets as it can accommodate on its carriers. So even if a single carrier carry 100, USN can't bring anything more than 1100 fighter jets. US army/marines have the capability to bring additional 1500 but they will have to be stationed in close proximity. Maybe on bases in Japan, Australia, South Korea etc. in any USA vs China war. These bases will be the first target of Chinese rocket force incase of all out war. So don't have much hope from that side either. In my believe all US can manage is some 1500 fighter jets near Chinese borders. China don't need 5000+ to counter an invading force of 1500 fighter jets.

And China will never try to attack US mainland. So what is the problem here ? 40%+ of the US fighter jets are stationed in foreign air force bases. US can not vacate them 100% incase of war with China. Because everyone is waiting for US to pull off from different regions so that they get started. Iran is one example.

Bottom line, China don't need anything more than 3000 fighter jets because all it will ever have to deal with are some 1500 fighter jets attacking force.

 

[PakistaniDefender]

9 aew is PLENTY.

We need Long Range ones. Upgrade them to ER

 

[Aziqbal]

Courtesy of PAF.

and this was only possible due to the situational awareness that Chinese military satellites provided which were relayed to the Pakistani command and control centres who then used Link 17 and with array of other platforms and sensors to establish the kill

Pakistan needs to establish more military satellites

Turkey is doing very well with so many advanced platforms and sensors

but they cant provide the situational awareness that satellites provide

China is planning to establish over 1,000 military satellites by 2035 and they will have the ability to live monitor USN Carrier groups

I am sure the Chinese were tracking the B2 who bombed Iran

 

[RajaBaja]

Think of it this way, USN can only bring as many ships as it can accommodate on its carriers. So even if a single carrier carry 100, USN can't bring anything more than 1100 fighter jets. US army/marines have the capability to bring additional 1500 but they will have to be stationed in close proximity. Maybe on bases in Japan, Australia, South Korea etc. in any USA vs China war. These bases will be the first target of Chinese rocket force. So don't have much hope from that side either. In my believe all US can manage is some 1500 fighter jets near Chinese borders. China don't need 5000+ to counter an invading force of 1500 fighter jets.

And China will never try to attack US mainland. So what is the problem here ? 40%+ of the US fighter jets are stationed in foreign air force bases. US can not vacate them 100% incase of war with China. Because everyone is eating for US to pull off from different regions to get started. Iran is one example.

Bottom line, China don't need anything more than 3000 fighter jets because all it will ever have to deal with are some 1500 fighter jets attacking force.

The war will not go like this. Let's pretend 4 AC's with average 80 jets. The USAF has an inventory of near 5000 jets. 2000 of these can easily be deployed in Pacific and South China sea. From GUAM to South Korea to Japan and on a few secret Islands, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, and even India (even if India doesn't jump in, they are obligated to give bases to the allied forces around the strait of Malaca at Nicobar Islands choking ALL Chinese ship based trade).

So China will be facing easily near 2500 -+ jets. If China has 4000 active, it would be left with 1500 lower end 4th Jen J-10C's for local CAP's inside China and some others.

So if you read up, just think about all the nations involved with their militaries and their labor and equipment. A lot needs to happen from the Chinese side militarily. That's why they are working so hard.