PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[RajaBaja]

I think you're getting the wrong message, what Michael was trying to say is that manufacture scale is the key. Those production line are extremely expensive investment, they only makes financial sense if you're producing very large lot size, ie a new plane roll off the line every three days continuously for years on ends. If you don't reach that production tempo your expensive production line is just burning money.

Of course Pakistan can do it just like everyone else, but it will just be a huge financial burden for Pakistan.

IMO, there're a couple of things Pakistan can do:

1, As Michael mentioned, try to increase domestic production percentage for the JF-17B3.
2, Try to domestically manufacture sub components that is needed for maintenance for J-10C.
3, If Pakistan is very ambitious on the engine sector, try to acquire the ability for WS-10 maintenance in house, maybe even able to produce some parts of the engine.

In short, try to tackle the components first. Assembly line doesn't makes sense if you're importing all the components from China, assembly cost is just a small percentage of overall cost.

I think you should read his post. Calling someone's post a fantasy without comprehending it is wrong. We are where China was in the 90's. With hard work, TOT and internal capability enhancement, its on top of the world today.

Whether Pakistan wants to build JF-17's more in numbers is one project. But I know this for a fact, there is significant interest in 5th gen technologies. The money will be spent on what's needed. In my and many other's opinion, we need to re-train our engineers on some 5th gen project with China working a a partner so we get to build our skills here in Pakistan and Chinese industry can fill the initial numbers.

I agree with you and Michael, the manufacturing will require significant amount of money. But the real smart decision making is, do we want to spend that exorbitant amount of money on 4th gen manufacturing or wait and do it onr 5th gen? I'd go with 5th gen!

 

[Toxic]

Baseline and "bare airframe" are two different things. There is no such thing as a "bare airframe". It's not candy from a store.

A aircraft without armaments and spares and maintenance support is effectively the bare Airframe Mr genius, do you realize why nobody quotes the price of the airframe itself when talking about military purchases?

You went so far to accuse a strategic partner for paying bribes in J-10C's case (China), quoted false price of the jet! And now going towards "insult mode" when questions are asked.....? You posted something, either prove it or debate with logic. I don't understand why you people start to get personal.

I am not making any allegations just trying make a point about how no company is above bribing and that it doesn't cost much compared to the contracts they secure.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Zardari got briefing on J20 ....whats cooking.....not a good omen

He was shown it, i don't think that qualifies as a briefing. Michael has stated in a previous thread, that access to the J20 is becoming more liberal(better access at the next airshow etc).

 

[RajaBaja]

Bro, you guys are arguing for no reason over its price, when in fact Quwa has a whole article on the J-10CE (I'm quite sure you must have read it).

According to leaked documents, the total value of the PAF J-10CE contract was $1.525 billion USD for 20 aircraft, 10 spare WS-10B turbofan engines, and 240 PL-15E LRAAMs.

Estimates...
~$75million per unit (procurement cost, entire package included)
~$45million to ~$55million per unit (flyaway cost, just the airframe + engine + avionics, ready to fly)

Insulting China and false accuse it to pay bribes and corruption should not be allowed. It hurts Pak-China relationship. The same thing was happening yesterday while these people have no real background in this area, just politically motivated shamefully.

When you ask them to substantiate their tall claims, they will try to insult you vs. giving proofs of their claims.

On price, there is a lot more that hasn't been posted to the public. At the end, the price was around $ 55 million INCLUDING missiles like the PL-15 and PL-10's. This is the price breakdown, note, at the end, there were reductions by government to government direct dealings so those won't be reflected here or in the media.

 

[niubi]

I think you should read his post. Calling someone's post a fantasy without comprehending it is wrong. We are where China was in the 90's. With hard work, TOT and internal capability enhancement, its on top of the world today.

Whether Pakistan wants to build JF-17's more in numbers is one project. But I know this for a fact, there is significant interest in 5th gen technologies. The money will be spent on what's needed. In my and many other's opinion, we need to re-train our engineers on some 5th gen project with China working a a partner so we get to build our skills here in Pakistan and Chinese industry can fill the initial numbers.

I agree with you and Michael, the manufacturing will require significant amount of money. But the real smart decision making is, do we want to spend that exorbitant amount of money on 4th gen manufacturing or wait and do it onr 5th gen? I'd go with 5th gen!

I don't think Pakistan today is at the equivalent of China in 1990s when it comes to infrastructure and institutions relative to rest of world and the state of technology, science and academia in the 1990s. China wasn't all that lagging behind back then. Contrary to what many think.

Also and perhaps much more importantly, China in the 1990s was not seeking to become some military superpower. It was a strong military yes but mostly due to size and China's nominal wealth even in 1990. I mean it already had a pretty decent space program by 1990 relative to everyone else in 1990. It certainly wasn't attempting to sink massive national funds into 4th gen fighter platforms. It gave Chengdu measly sums to try its best with J-10 program after the J-9 program was dusted due to being too far beyond the capabilities of 1980s China tech level. Pakistan should try to figure out a way to find stable period like China did between 1980 and even now, still attempting to stabilise and let itself learn get wealthier, more educated and progress industry and economy. Sinking funds into military is only necessary because it has such wealthy and militarily capable enemies otherwise these things are not necessary. Lessons learned from the 19th to 20th century.

If it's possible to settle the region and conflicts, Pakistan would have the opportunity to develop properly and become a valuable and competent ally. If everyone has plenty, no one is seeking to build bigger and better weapons. This was China's original foolish belief when it came to westerners but it's still possible for Pak, India and China to settle things to a point where we don't need to burn money on weapons against each other if there's gaurantees of peace like Europe pretty much now has with each other despite killing each other at a scale not ever seen between China and South Asia. That was not even 100 years ago. So, do we want to get competent and rich and then let the defences flow or spent everything on killing each other? India can and will do the same. An arms race isn't to the interest of Pak at all. It can't win and will just use up China's resources to help offset the difference because China can't let India dominate over Pakistan. China's sole goal is to get the US off the hegemonic seat. That's it. Animosity with India is a distraction and waste of resources. Pakistan and India going off to war isn't to the best interest of China because it has to spend resources to balance Pakistan's shortcomings against a significantly larger India. The lack of progress over the decades in Pakistan is pretty much mostly because of this. This thinking you must match. For today and tomorrow's defence, focus on deterrence and having an equal. That's enough. Going for a superior just forces India's hand. Deter them and balance them, that's it. Use the rest of your time and resources developing. That's how China actually did it. Barely any wars and large scale conflicts. Few skirmishes and shots fired despite it being a messy time with Taiwan and disputes in SCS.

China was still making J-7 fighters when the USAF completed receiving of all F-22 fighters ordered. Pakistan wants to chase 5th gen? Why? What's the need honestly? Unless India gets over 100 Rafales and buys Su-57, there's absolutely no point. The aim should be to settle down, deter and balance for today's defence, focus of stabilising and resolving issues I guess is the hardest part esp with today's Modi and Indian nationalism. If that can be solved, the path to development then begins. No one gets to the top when they are focused on constant military preparedness. Pakistan has nuclear deterrence at the existential end. It now just needs plentiful suicide drones and shorad, not 5th gen fighters. China needs 5th gen fighters because USA is a violent bitch.

 

[RajaBaja]

I don't think Pakistan today is at the equivalent of China in 1990s when it comes to infrastructure and institutions relative to rest of world and the state of technology, science and academia in the 1990s. China wasn't all that lagging behind back then. Contrary to what many think.

Also and perhaps much more importantly, China in the 1990s was not seeking to become some military superpower. It was a strong military yes but mostly due to size and China's nominal wealth even in 1990. I mean it already had a pretty decent space program by 1990 relative to everyone else in 1990. It certainly wasn't attempting to sink massive national funds into 4th gen fighter platforms. It gave Chengdu measly sums to try its best with J-10 program after the J-9 program was dusted due to being too far beyond the capabilities of 1980s China tech level. Pakistan should try to figure out a way to find stable period like China did between 1980 and even now, still attempting to stabilise and let itself learn get wealthier, more educated and progress industry and economy. Sinking funds into military is only necessary because it has such wealthy and militarily capable enemies otherwise these things are not necessary. Lessons learned from the 19th to 20th century.

If it's possible to settle the region and conflicts, Pakistan would have the opportunity to develop properly and become a valuable and competent ally. If everyone has plenty, no one is seeking to build bigger and better weapons. This was China's original foolish belief when it came to westerners but it's still possible for Pak, India and China to settle things to a point where we don't need to burn money on weapons against each other if there's gaurantees of peace like Europe pretty much now has with each other despite killing each other at a scale not ever seen between China and South Asia. That was not even 100 years ago. So, do we want to get competent and rich and then let the defences flow or spent everything on killing each other? India can and will do the same. An arms race isn't to the interest of Pak at all. It can't win and will just use up China's resources to help offset the difference because China can't let India dominate over Pakistan. China's sole goal is to get the US off the hegemonic seat. That's it. Animosity with India is a distraction and waste of resources. Pakistan and India going off to war isn't to the best interest of China because it has to spend resources to balance Pakistan's shortcomings against a significantly larger India. The lack of progress over the decades in Pakistan is pretty much mostly because of this. This thinking you must match. For today and tomorrow's defence, focus on deterrence and having an equal. That's enough. Going for a superior just forces India's hand. Deter them and balance them, that's it. Use the rest of your time and resources developing. That's how China actually did it. Barely any wars and large scale conflicts. Few skirmishes and shots fired despite it being a messy time with Taiwan and disputes in SCS.

China was still making J-7 fighters when the USAF completed receiving of all F-22 fighters ordered. Pakistan wants to chase 5th gen? Why? What's the need honestly? Unless India gets over 100 Rafales and buys Su-57, there's absolutely no point. The aim should be to settle down, deter and balance for today's defence, focus of stabilising and resolving issues I guess is the hardest part esp with today's Modi and Indian nationalism. If that can be solved, the path to development then begins. No one gets to the top when they are focused on constant military preparedness. Pakistan has nuclear deterrence at the existential end. It now just needs plentiful suicide drones and shorad, not 5th gen fighters. China needs 5th gen fighters because USA is a violent bitch.

There was an ongoing discussion with Michael. I used an analogy of Pakistan being where China was in 1990. We have no comparison to China in anything. The message I was trying to convey was, in 90's, Chinese did a lot of hard work, acquired technologies, created various projects some successful, some money wasted, trial, error, learning, all effort to become a process engineering powerhouse for the future. There was a lot of will to grow and hard work made it happen.

In that regards, today, we are standing at almost that place, where we want to produce 5th gen tech and are willing to learn, try, do hard work and become successful but practically, through a join project.

 

[enroger]

I think you should read his post. Calling someone's post a fantasy without comprehending it is wrong. We are where China was in the 90's. With hard work, TOT and internal capability enhancement, its on top of the world today.

Whether Pakistan wants to build JF-17's more in numbers is one project. But I know this for a fact, there is significant interest in 5th gen technologies. The money will be spent on what's needed. In my and many other's opinion, we need to re-train our engineers on some 5th gen project with China working a a partner so we get to build our skills here in Pakistan and Chinese industry can fill the initial numbers.

I agree with you and Michael, the manufacturing will require significant amount of money. But the real smart decision making is, do we want to spend that exorbitant amount of money on 4th gen manufacturing or wait and do it onr 5th gen? I'd go with 5th gen!

I get where're you coming from. If you ask me I'd go with 5th gen too. However it would be quite the moon shot for Pakistan, if you take a look at Europe you can see countries like France and Germany are still squabbling amongst each other with their joint 5th gen program (They like to call them 6th gen but everyone know it's really at best 5.5 but whatever).

Having said that I think it is possible for Pakistan if they can gain access to China's research facilities like wind tunnels and RCS testing labs and China's aerospace supply chain. I believe those are things China is willing to offer if Pakistan go for it.

Mind you it is still going to be extremely expensive with designs, iteration of designs, test flights....so on. Whether all that investment is worth it when an off the shelf 5th gen is available is debatable.

But then I can understand the sentiment, self reliance is priceless.

 

[Michael]

In my and many other's opinion, we need to re-train our engineers on some 5th gen project with China working a a partner so we get to build our skills here in Pakistan and Chinese industry can fill the initial numbers.

Northwestern Polytechnical University is the cradle of China's aviation industry. Graduates from this university make up the vast majority of China's aircraft design teams, including senior positions such as chief designer, chief engineer, and commander-in-chief, as well as most other positions.

The university's defense and aerospace fields are generally closed to foreigners, but Pakistan is an exception. They have trained a large number of high-level talents for Pakistan. However, I wonder how many of these graduates remain in Pakistan after graduating from Northwestern Polytechnical University and pursue careers in related fields there.

In the residential area of the CAC headquarters, there are many halal restaurants. Can you guess why there are so many halal restaurants?

I have listed only a very few facts. These efforts are ongoing. There's no need for the Pakistani people to call for this. You should be more concerned about how to retain these high-caliber professionals. We can't do anything about this; it's up to the Pakistanis themselves to resolve it.

I agree with you and Michael, the manufacturing will require significant amount of money. But the real smart decision making is, do we want to spend that exorbitant amount of money on 4th gen manufacturing or wait and do it onr 5th gen? I'd go with 5th gen!

I've always emphasized that if you want a skyscraper that's completely your own, you need to start from the foundation. You can't just build the top floor without building the foundation. China can only teach you the foundation technology.

Of course, you can build a rooftop on China's foundation. But that means you'll be permanently dependent on China. China has the power to destroy your rooftop at any time. You don't own the rooftop. Or, you can have China build you a completely unique foundation. However, you'll need to have sufficient funds.

Pakistan already possesses a wealth of relevant technologies, production facilities, and technical personnel to produce the JF-17 series fighter jets. Further developing these technologies to form a complete aviation industry system is the fastest, most cost-effective, and most efficient path.

Once Pakistan has a complete aviation industry system, upgrading to fifth- or sixth-generation fighter jets with China's assistance will be a remarkably easy and rapid undertaking. After all, Pakistan only needs to learn, not explore. If Pakistan abandons its existing JF-17 production system and directly transitions to fifth- or sixth-generation fighter jet technology... by the time it acquires these technologies, the sixth-generation fighter jet will be obsolete.

If you can't even pass junior high school math, and you start studying advanced math, what do you think you can achieve?

 

[TAC]

Looks like J10ce in PAF colours & a new build JF-17 at Chengdu during Presidential visit

Pakistan, China will continue to expand collaboration in defence production, aviation: President Zardari

President visits Aviation Industry Corporation of China, where a range of military and civilian aircraft are designed and produced, including J-10C fighter jets.

www.dawn.com

 

[Deino]

Looks like J10ce in PAF colours & a new build JF-17 at Chengdu during Presidential visit

Pakistan, China will continue to expand collaboration in defence production, aviation: President Zardari

President visits Aviation Industry Corporation of China, where a range of military and civilian aircraft are designed and produced, including J-10C fighter jets.

www.dawn.com

No, it does not ... it's just an AVIC-owned one, most likely this one:

 

[rafale]

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Why is there a JF-17 in AVIC in China? That too with fresh primer? I thought AVIC was not building any JF-17s?

@Oscar @side-winder @ghazi52


Zardari is there for his 10%

 

[rafale]

Also, those who don't know......Zardari being there for 10 days is definitely something is up....and big.

When government is one of the client or contract party, the undersigning on contracts is done under the head of state signature......which would be in this case Zardari. So him being in AVIC means Pakistan is about to give business to AVIC..........which one.....J-10CEs, expanded co-production of JF-17 or J-35............we will find out soon.

 

[Michael]

Why is there a JF-17 in AVIC in China? That too with fresh primer? I thought AVIC was not building any JF-17s?

If CAC doesn't produce the JF-17, then PAC can't produce any JF-17s.
CAC doesn't have a mass production line for the JF-17. However, they do have full JF-17 production capabilities.
This is CAC's JF-17 research and experimental manufacturing site. It certainly has JF-17 fighters.

Also, those who don't know......Zardari being there for 10 days is definitely something is up....and big.

He has already gone to Shanghai.

..........which one.....J-10CEs, expanded co-production of JF-17 or J-35............we will find out soon.

This is the CAC. They're only responsible for the J-10 and JF-17.
The J-35 is a product of the SAC.
You need to make the distinction.

 

[Bentley777]

This makes no sense.

The J-10CE's production technology is the same as the JF-17B3's. They belong to the same generation of production technology. Pakistan already possesses most of the relevant technical knowledge. However, the remaining areas that Pakistan lacks would require significant investment in basic industries, which is unrealistic for Pakistan at this time.

Based on cost, producing the J-10CE in Pakistan would be far more expensive than producing it in China.

This issue has been discussed previously; you can refer back to it.

Sales rights are impossible. At least, China cannot provide such rights under the current China-Pakistani relations.
=====================================
On a practical level, Pakistan must first fully resolve the issue of fully localizing the JF-17B3. Regardless of the JF-17B3's advanced state, achieving 100% local production is a qualitative leap, and certainly a difficult one.

Problem is if india get production line of rafales how will pak counter it because already jf17 project is nearly at full potential further modification will be limited in 2030s. If pak moves toward j10c production line in existing PAC facility with some upgrades it can compensate for reguired numbers Or else pak would still be needed buy more j10c off the shelf but in that case we can't apply our own stand off missiles or lets say some joint collaboration ones like with turkey. The cost of jet can be calculated but if its little more expensive and gives PAF freedom to modify it locally it's a better option even if we don't have rights too sell it to someone like jf17. It's also subject to capabilities OF PAC to made it locally.

 

[Yasser76]

Problem is if india get production line of rafales how will pak counter it because already jf17 project is nearly at full potential further modification will be limited in 2030s. If pak moves toward j10c production line it can compensate for reguireqd

J-35 is way forward. Even PLAAF is retiring J-10

J-10 was very useful stop gap, future is in 5th gen