PAF J-10CE News Updates and Discussions part ll

[niubi]

J-10CE with PL15, will eat any Eurofighter/Rafale/Gripen/F-16 out there.

1 vs 1 or n vs n, sure. A well supported Eurofighter or Rafale team, would be a different situation. Pakistan had far superior ISR and probably better pilots than IAF in the confrontation last year. This allowed PAF to form tactics that perfectly countered the IAF attack on the opening night.

J-10CE with PL-15E is more or less approximately the same level as Rafale Flight 4 with RBE2 and Meteor. It's probably a little better than Eurofighter Tranche 3 but hard to say with Tranche 4 and newer Tranche 5. Different class fighters anyway and the Eurofighter Tranche 4 is like 4 to 5 times the price of J-10CE.

Gripen E/F with Meteor is also hard to say as well but I suspect the J-10C is still underestimated in capability.

F-16 hasn't seen much upgrade and is unfair to compare against unless Lockheed Martin actually builds F-21 version "Super" Viper.

J-10CE is definitely by far the most affordable in the class and punches well above its weight mostly thanks to China's radar capabilities. I mean J-10CE has limited integration with PAF fleet compared to what PLAAF and PLA would have since PAF and PA operate so many other non-Chinese systems. J-10CE's performance is mostly down to how well PAF used it, the PL-15E and the J-10CE's radar which I'm confident is heads and shoulders above RBE2 and CAESAR since it's long moved ahead to GaN based technology where RBE and CAESAR future improvements don't aim to get GaN until around 2030.

Meanwhile, India is buying another hundred or so Rafales for delivery around 2030 and Sukhoi just started developing a twin seat Su-57 which is basically what India wanted in the FGFA program. PAF therefore needs to think and plan for 5th generation options if and when they are available to PAF. 20 J-10CE cannot hold against many dozens of Rafales even with better ISR fed from China and stockpiles of munitions to fire on the IAF. Minimum response to India's Rafale purchase would be more J-10CE and the cost difference is commensurate on the different economic size of Pakistan vis a vis India.

 

[rafale]

1 vs 1 or n vs n, sure. A well supported Eurofighter or Rafale team, would be a different situation. Pakistan had far superior ISR and probably better pilots than IAF in the confrontation last year. This allowed PAF to form tactics that perfectly countered the IAF attack on the opening night.

J-10CE with PL-15E is more or less approximately the same level as Rafale Flight 4 with RBE2 and Meteor. It's probably a little better than Eurofighter Tranche 3 but hard to say with Tranche 4 and newer Tranche 5. Different class fighters anyway and the Eurofighter Tranche 4 is like 4 to 5 times the price of J-10CE.

Gripen E/F with Meteor is also hard to say as well but I suspect the J-10C is still underestimated in capability.

F-16 hasn't seen much upgrade and is unfair to compare against unless Lockheed Martin actually builds F-21 version "Super" Viper.

J-10CE is definitely by far the most affordable in the class and punches well above its weight mostly thanks to China's radar capabilities. I mean J-10CE has limited integration with PAF fleet compared to what PLAAF and PLA would have since PAF and PA operate so many other non-Chinese systems. J-10CE's performance is mostly down to how well PAF used it, the PL-15E and the J-10CE's radar which I'm confident is heads and shoulders above RBE2 and CAESAR since it's long moved ahead to GaN based technology where RBE and CAESAR future improvements don't aim to get GaN until around 2030.

Thanks for your post.

In this analysis you are assuming J-10CE with PL15 145km version or 200km full range versions?

If its the PL15 with 200km version, then even one on one, J-10CE has the advantage against Meteor equipped jets.

Indians brought a 9mm pistol to a AR15 firefight on May 7th.

 

[niubi]

Thanks for your post.

In this analysis you are assuming J-10CE with PL15 145km version or 200km full range versions?

If its the PL15 with 200km version, then even one on one, J-10CE has the advantage against Meteor equipped jets.

Indians brought a 9mm pistol to a AR15 firefight on May 7th.

PL-15E with "advertised" 200km range. Roughly equal in overall capability to Meteor.

My analogy is that India brought hordes of AR15s to a sniper fight on May 7th.

China getting stronger and making tech leaps translates to Pakistan being able to counter India at 1/7 the size and 1/10 the resources. We need to hope that China's progress remains solid so that second and third tier exportable equipment can equal the best India can import. Going forwards, knowing India will buy more upgraded Rafales and probably Su-57 in future means hoping J-35 becomes exportable in time to counter those new IAF assets.

Chinese ISR assisted PAF in developing and implementing the right tactics to respond to IAF in time on May 2025. India goes away learning so Pakistan needs to find new tricks basically and yes J-35 would be a really nice asset to have for PAF even in limited numbers. Pakistan just needs to be able to defend against Indian drone and missile strikes first.

Next time India definitely opens with saturating attacks of drones and missile strikes instead of IAF. The only real way Pakistan can "defend" against such attacks is through deterrence and that can only be achieved with Pakistan being able to hit India equally hard with its own drone and missile attacks. Pakistan doesn't have the funding to arms race India in this regard so some force multipliers to assist in escalated conflict would be necessary. These include platforms like J-35 which can more cheaply strike important Indian ground targets pretty deep behind India, compared to using up Pakistan's small and often nuclear reserved strategically purposed missiles like your LACMs, SRBMs and MRBMs. Some GJ-11 strike UCAVs would be great but unfortunately not exportable yet.

Basically, use mass drone strikes, artillery and PAF to hit India hard in response or pre-emptively if it's clear India is preparing mass scale attacks which are hard to hide from Chinese space based observation.

 

[Xestan]

Well - “proven”(through open sourced imagery as the only metric) events then negate the entire PAF official narrative all the way back to the 7th as well.

You misunderstood my statement. What I meant by 'proven' is what PAF officially claimed. The only A2G sortie they have officially announced was on the morning of 10th May.

 

[Xestan]

So now, @Xestan I stand corrected

I think the AC isn’t exaggerating but is confusing his metrics.

It is likely that the combined total warheads of both Army and PAF attacks on India exceeded 65 - but from a tonnage perspective it would need to be nearly 160 per day to match 65x

That's my guess too.

 

[Metal 0-1]

Wow. That's a high bar. If so, I'm afraid that we have no proof of Pakistani assertions, or Israeli or American or Indian or any other assertions about just any war. We have proof that Nazi Germany lost the war. But we have no "proof" of casualties beyond what someone wrote. We know that Bangladesh successfully seceded from Pakistan - hence, we lost. India won. Bangladesh won. But we have no proof of the casualties that are still contested.

Caution is always warranted. But denial of widely accepted truths... maybe... but then the onus is on you to explain why. Alan Warnes is a reliable source. He's not only the editor of AFM but also writes for Aviation Week. If you think he is biased, or in this case was misguided, you need to present your argument as to why.

If, indeed, you believe that shooting down an A-50 is fanciful - here is a scenario under which that is possible:

The point of an AWAC platform is to look into enemy airspace. If it wants to look into Pakistani airspace it needs to come within a 100-150 miles of the border. We know that there was heavy jamming that night. Clearly, Pakistani jamming was more effective than Indian. We know that because of the recording that AVM Aurangzeb played. That recording is humiliating for the IAF btw. Pakistan also had access to Chinese Sigint satellites which served to electronic ID the bogeys. So it's possible that a J-10 could get within PL-15 range. The A-50 is a big target. Even bigger than SU-30s. The PAF hasn't taken credit. So they aren't sure. Neither was Alan Warnes.

As I said before

Some of the guys here have given Alan Warnes status of their Walid e Mohtaram

 

[side-winder]

You misunderstood my statement. What I meant by 'proven' is what PAF officially claimed. The only A2G sortie they have officially announced was on the morning of 10th May.

Seems you didn't watch the briefing of 10th. I can personally testify to most of the claims, not all ofcourse.

Most of the things he said are actually true.

1. India using SSMs.
2. India launching and destroying own missiles inside own territory
3. PAF launching stuff at around a dozen IAF installations.





Anyway - offtopic.

 

[sutton9999]

AIM-260 has no fins in the middle, suggesting a high-throw trajectory, the same as PL-17.
PL15/16 is 20% bulkier than AIM-120/260.

Typhoon TR4 + AIM-260 would match well against J10C in BVR, but not with Meteor, ramjet is not suitable for a high-throw trajectory.

 

[lightning f57]

J-10CE ‘9-0’ Shockwave: Did Pakistan’s Chinese Fighter Humiliate Eurofighter Typhoon—or Trigger a Global Airpower Debate?​

Unverified claims from the Pakistan-Qatar Zilzal-II exercise have reignited global scrutiny over Chinese fighter capabilities, Eurofighter competitiveness, and the future balance of airpower across the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.​

View attachment 197649

Boss any links to article

 

[Fatman17]

Boss any links to article

Defence Security Asia

 

[royalharris]

AIM-260 has no fins in the middle, suggesting a high-throw trajectory, the same as PL-17.
PL15/16 is 20% bulkier than AIM-120/260.

Typhoon TR4 + AIM-260 would match well against J10C in BVR, but not with Meteor, ramjet is not suitable for a high-throw trajectory.

European military radio-frequency and radar systems are inadequate. No matter what missiles they are equipped with, the first problem is that they cannot detect the J-10C, while the J-10C can detect European fighter jets in advance.

 

[rafale]

PL-15E with "advertised" 200km range. Roughly equal in overall capability to Meteor.

My analogy is that India brought hordes of AR15s to a sniper fight on May 7th.

China getting stronger and making tech leaps translates to Pakistan being able to counter India at 1/7 the size and 1/10 the resources. We need to hope that China's progress remains solid so that second and third tier exportable equipment can equal the best India can import. Going forwards, knowing India will buy more upgraded Rafales and probably Su-57 in future means hoping J-35 becomes exportable in time to counter those new IAF assets.

Chinese ISR assisted PAF in developing and implementing the right tactics to respond to IAF in time on May 2025. India goes away learning so Pakistan needs to find new tricks basically and yes J-35 would be a really nice asset to have for PAF even in limited numbers. Pakistan just needs to be able to defend against Indian drone and missile strikes first.

Next time India definitely opens with saturating attacks of drones and missile strikes instead of IAF. The only real way Pakistan can "defend" against such attacks is through deterrence and that can only be achieved with Pakistan being able to hit India equally hard with its own drone and missile attacks. Pakistan doesn't have the funding to arms race India in this regard so some force multipliers to assist in escalated conflict would be necessary. These include platforms like J-35 which can more cheaply strike important Indian ground targets pretty deep behind India, compared to using up Pakistan's small and often nuclear reserved strategically purposed missiles like your LACMs, SRBMs and MRBMs. Some GJ-11 strike UCAVs would be great but unfortunately not exportable yet.

Basically, use mass drone strikes, artillery and PAF to hit India hard in response or pre-emptively if it's clear India is preparing mass scale attacks which are hard to hide from Chinese space based observation.

Hi,

so yea, India bought AR15 to sniper fight, but Pakistan still had more Snipers than they had AR15.

I agree with your post, however, in future India will not fly their jets towards the border. They will go for Air Launched Ballistic Missile attacks. They are buying ALBMs because that is how the Israelis attacked Qatar.

So Pakistan not only needs a 5th gen architecture, it also needs substantial Air Defense against such threats, because we may not be able to track their aircraft taking off as they would remain well within central/eastern India.

 

[rafale]

AIM-260 has no fins in the middle, suggesting a high-throw trajectory, the same as PL-17.
PL15/16 is 20% bulkier than AIM-120/260.

Typhoon TR4 + AIM-260 would match well against J10C in BVR, but not with Meteor, ramjet is not suitable for a high-throw trajectory.

Yea, Europe pretty much doesn't have anything in the game today.

Not even Russians.

In BVR and 5th Gen fights, its purely China vs USA now.

 

[Shui]

PL15/16 is 20% bulkier than AIM-120/260.

Not a single pic of PL-16 out there at the moment though.

what we knows right now, PL-16 is already in service, the successor of PL-17 is also there, whether it's called PL-21 or not, and there are some other NG projects but just chit chat from close source, so doesn't worth mentioning here.

 

[Afif]

AIM-260 has no fins in the middle, suggesting a high-throw trajectory, the same as PL-17.
PL15/16 is 20% bulkier than AIM-120/260.

Typhoon TR4 + AIM-260 would match well against J10C in BVR, but not with Meteor, ramjet is not suitable for a high-throw trajectory.

Meteor is fine. It's that Rafale radar is relatively weak and small (around 838 T/RMs) to take full advantage of meteor's range in a contested airspace. Specially where it might face sophisticated EW which would degrade some of its capability. Which it probably did on 7th of may.

Typhoon T4 comes with ECRS MK0/1 which has reportedly 1400 and 1600 T/RMs with newer design and more power. (12 watt peak power for MK0's modules compared to Rafale's 7 watt modules) ERCS can see further, better and has higher ECM resistance.

Also ECRS is mounted on a swashplate which gives it nearly 200 degree FOV compared to fixed array's 120 degree FOV. It allows Typhoon to turn away from enemy aircraft earlier while still maintaining lock.

Also integrated BVR maneuver depends on lots complicated operational factors regardless of tech that PAF executed well. Which IAF obviously didn't. However, to derive decisive conclusion about absolute technological superiority of J10CE against aircrafts like Typhoon that was not even a party to the event is illogical.